Tuesday, July 16, 2019

The Height Of Summer This Year Is As Ugly As It Usually Is

This schematic from the Weather Channel shows how a ridge of
high pressure in the upper atmosphere will keep most of the
nation very hot over the next few days. Along the edge of
this heat ridge, where the jet stream is, there's a risk of
severe storms as disturbances riding the jet stream
feed on the hot, humid air. 
Mid-July is generally regarding as the height of summer in most of the nation.

It's the time of year where we generally have the hottest temperatures, the highest humidity, the sultriest weather and the wettest thunderstorms.

That trend is true big time in most of the United States, including here in Vermont.

For starters, there's an excessive heat watch in effect Wednesday through Saturday in a huge area of the middle of the country.  During this period, temperatures in the 90s, with humidity that will bring dew points into the 70s will bring heat indexes as high as 110 degrees.

Excessive heat and humidity are also anticipated late this week through most of the nation east of the Rockies, including here in Vermont. It will be ugly out there. More on Vermont in a bit.

Actual temperatures could top 100 degrees in a few spots in a huge area from the Plains to the East Coast, possibly as far north as southern New England later in the week.

Even Florida is getting into the act. Yes, I know, Florida is always brutally hot and humid in the summer, but this is even worse than usual.

On Sunday, the low temperature in Miami was a sultry 84 degrees, which tied the record for the hottest overnight low on record there. For perspective, 84 degrees is three degrees hotter than the normal high temperature this time of year locally in Burlington, Vermont.

Although this won't be the worst heat wave ever, it's certainly up there, and something to be reckoned with. I'm sure there will be a few deaths.

Especially since unusually high humidity will keep temperatures up at night most everywhere east of the the Plains States. That gives people little relief, so that the days on end of heat and humidity can wear people down. Especially if they have underlying health issues. People should be careful.

Wet dogs rescued from an Arkansas Humane Society shelter that
was hit by a dangerous flash flood early Tuesday.
Photo via The Weather Channel
When it's hot and humid, there's plenty of water in the atmosphere to unleash some torrential downpours. The remains of Tropical Storm Barry are certainly accomplishing that in Arkansas today.

At least ten inches of rain fell this morning in parts of Arkansas and it was still pouring as of early this afternoon. Some of the most distressing images out of that part of the country was a Humane Society shelter in which water blasted in.  

At least one dog was killed and other dogs and cats were swimming for their lives, some with their heads barely above water inside this shelter. Calls went out for people to grab these terrified animals, and if they had a fenced in yard on high ground, to take as many as they could temporarily. I hope people heeded the call.

Thankfully, community members rushed to the Humane Society building and took the animals to their homes on dry ground to stay temporarily.

There will be areas of flash flood risk tomorrow and the day after in the northeastern Plains, Great Lakes and parts of the East.

Very hot weather can also trigger severe thunderstorms, especially along the northern periphery of heat ridges. So, severe thunderstorms might happen today through Wednesday in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Those severe storms could easily extend into northern New England by the end o the week.

VERMONT IMPACTS

As advertised, the Green Mountain State will share in this hot, humid, wet, stormy, downpour-ish pattern for the rest of today going on at least through Saturday.

A warm front has been moving through Vermont today, and I'm sure you noticed the humidity increasing.

As I write this at 3 p.m., it's not too bad yet, but will definitely get worse.

At first, it will be just very humid, but not very hot. The remnants of Barry will affect us on Wednesday, with pretty frequent showers and a few thunderstorms. Though the deepest moisture will go by to our south, some of the showers Wednesday will have heavy downpours. That means we'll have to be on the lookout for scattered bouts of street flooding, small stream rushes, driveway washouts and that sort of thing.

No widespread flooding is expected. The clouds from all these showers will hold daytime temperatures down to around 80 degrees Wednesday, but you will notice the humidity.

An incredibly weak cold front will hold the worst of the heat and humidity at bay Thursday, but it will still feel sticky.

Then we in Vermont get blasted by lots of heat and humidity Friday and Saturday. Unless it's cloudier than expected, high temperature in the broader valleys at least will reach the low 90s. Dewpoints will be in the low 70s so it will feel insufferable.

At least we might have some excitement. Forecasters still think that a few weak boundaries will act as triggers to prompt some thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. The heat and humidity will encourage some of these storms to quickly turn strong to severe.

Details are lacking this far out but it's something to watch out for.

Early signs point toward a significant cooling trend early next week.

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