Thursday, February 13, 2020

Hot Again! January, 2020 Was World's Hottest. Climate Change Trend Carries On

Hot times continue. World had hottest Januaryu on record. Siberia, eastern
Europe and parts of eastern Canada especially hot. Only Alaska had
a chillier than normal January. 
NOAAs National Centers For Environmental Information just came out with literally hot news today.

January, 2020 was the world's hottest January, beating out January 2016 in the record books.

I'm sure you've heard this song and dance before. It seems like climate change might have accelerated, at least for now.

Almost every month over the past couple of years at least has been among the top three warmest on record.

January was 2.05 degrees abover the worldwide 20th century average.  Two degrees above normal doesn't sound like much, but when you're talking about putting the data together from all the certified weather stations around the world, two degrees is a huge departure from normal.

Only February and March, 2016 and December, 2015 had a greater warm departure from normal, says the NCEI.

El Nino weather patterns tend to make the global climate hotter. In January, there was no El Nino to help boost global temperatures, so the warm departure from normal last month was the greatest on record for any month without an El Nino going on.

This January was just a smidge warmer than the previous record holder. But the top four hottest global Januaries have happened since 2016.

The hottest areas of the world, relative to normal were Russia, much of Scandinavia, a large chunk of eastern Canada, and parts of southeastern Australia.  Most of these areas were at least 9 degrees warmer than the 20th century average.

The only real notable cold areas were Alaska and parts of western Canada, where temperatures were about 7 degrees colder than normal.  That's very cold, but not the coldest. Alaska only had its 13th coldest January on record last month.

Here in Vermont, we had our 11th warmest January on record last month according to NCEI.  This is the ranking among the last 127 Januaries.  The Lower 48 United States overall had its fifth warmest January out of the past 127 years.

Getting back to the world as a whole, an analysis by NCEI indicates 2020 is already almost a shoo-in for being one of the top five hottest years on record. Yes, I know we only have one out of 12 months in the books for this year, but there's no indication the January global heat will wane much in the coming months.

As an early indication, February is off to a much warmer than normal start in large portions of the globe. Flowers are blooming in the Netherlands.  Fruit trees are already blooming in North Carolina. Crocus are opening up on Cape Cod, snowdrops are blossoming in Boston, and daffodil sprouts in Connecticut are already nearly three inches tall, for just a few scattered examples.

Much has been made out of a supposed big rebound in Arctic ice extent due to conditions that have been colder this winter in the Arctic than recent winters.

Still, the NCEI says Arctic ice extent was the eighth lowest out of the past 42 years of record.

Individual weather events, like a warm week in Vermont, for instance, don't prove anything about climate change. But this January continues a month after month after year after year hot trend.  If you are age 35 or younger, you've never seen a global month that was cooler than average.  If you are 44 years old or younger, you've never seen a cooler than average global January.

If all that doesn't scream climate change, I don't know what does.

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