Enjoyed Vermont Taste Of Spring? Good! Back To Winter!

The National Weather Service snow map is back! Click on it to
make it bigger and easier to see. As you can see, the current
forecast has highter snow totals, more than six inches, in the
higher elevations, with less in the valleys, where a mix
with rain is more likely 

Well, that was a nice couple of spring days in Vermont, wasn't it?

Certainly more than warm enough to play in the snow.

If you don't like the snow, you got rid of some of it, especially in the valleys.  Plus, I believe sugarmakers got some early runs in for this year's maple syrup harvest.

This taste of spring is just about over now, and it's back to winter.  We're only in late February, so that's to be expected.  

Given the kind of winter we've had, you'd think we're overdue for another one of many mixed precipitation winter storms. You would be right, and such a storm is on its way.

This time, it doesn't look like there will be a big amount of sleet and freezing rain. But it will rain and it will snow.  Where what falls and when is the challenge.

Pretty much all the storms we've had this winter were a nightmare to forecast, given the temperatures in each one were near 32 degrees. Plus each storm brought complex temperatures to different layers of the atmosphere. If you were off slightly in temperatures, even a degree or so, the forecast would be a bust.

The upcoming storm, in anything, is going to be the most difficult of all to forecast. True, sleet and freezing rain are mostly, but completely out of the picture. But when the heaviest precipitation hits, will it be rain or snow?  Again, being off by a degree in temperature will throw the whole forecast off.

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington sees it, this will be an elevation dependent storm.  This type of scenario becomes more likely as we head into late February or March.  Overall temperatures have begun to warm up toward spring, so valleys tend to be more likely to support a cold rain.

But not always.

Anyway, it looks like there's going to be sharp differences between what goes on in the valleys and up the road 800 or so feet higher.

Here's how the NWS in South Burlington thinks things will play out.

The rest of today will be much cloudier and somewhat cooler than it's been for the past couple of days, but still on the mild side for this time of year. There will be a few spits of wet snowflakes and rain drops around, but it won't amount to anything, really.

There will probably be areas of light sleet and snow around tonight, causing a few slick spots as temperatures fall to near or below freezing.

On Wednesday, things will pick up a bit with somewhat steadier light snow, with a little rain in the valleys. It won't rain and snow all day, but it will be dank and wet and somewhat slushy.

Wednesday night and Thursday morning will bring the main show.  And the part of the forecast that is by far the trickiest

As heavier precipitation arrives, that will tend to cool the atmosphere, which favors snow. But slightly warmer air will trying to come in from the south and east, favoring rain, at least in the valleys.

National Weather Service meteorologist believe it will be cold enough for wet snow, even in the valleys. But it will be so slushy, and possibly mixed with rain, that the warmer low elevations will only get a couple inches of soggy snow.

Go up a few hundred feet in elevation and it would be a completely different scenario, forecasters believed as of this Tuesday morning. If you're up at an elevation of 800 or 1,000 feet, you could easily see four to eight inches of wet snow.  The mountain summits could see a foot or more.

Then there will be the local effects. On the immediate lee of the Green Mountains, on the eastern side, strong maybe even damaging downslope winds seem like they want to get cranking later Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Those winds could cause local power line problems and bring down a few trees. The downslope winds also tend to dry the atmosphere right up against the west side of the mountains, so precipitation could, maybe, be much lighter there.

Since this will be wet, heavy snow, there's definitely the risk of power failures.  If you live in areas out of the valleys, be prepared for that. The heaviest snow will come down on the eastern and southeastern slopes of the mountains.

Things will taper off Thursday afternoon.  Then, Thursday night and into the weekend, it will turn much colder.  Persistent snow showers will continue, especially in the northern and central Green Mountains, where several more inches of snow could pile up betweeen Thursday afternoon and Saturday.

This bodes well for the ski areas.  There, the warm, but rather dry weather over the past couple of days didn't cause much damage to the snowpack.  Plus, by the time the weekend hits, it looks like there will be a decent addition to the snow on the slopes.

By the way, I said it will turn much colder, but it's late enough in the winter in which cold snaps often don't have the bite they did in January.

This means highs on Friday and Saturday will be within a few degrees of 20, and lows will be in the single numbers. Cold, yes, but not unbearable.

It'll start to warm up again somewhat toward Sunday and Monday.

Bottom line, get ready for another messy storm that will probably make your commutes to and from work annoying  on Thursday and maybe cut your power.  And, unless you live in a warmer valley, you face a backbreaking chore of clearing heavy, wet snow after the storm is over.

Also, definitely be ready for surprises.  The valleys that are now forecast to get an inch or two of slush could end up getting much more, if the temperature is a degree or two colder than now forecast.  Or, the rain could creep a little further up the hillsides if it's just a degree or two on the warm side.

I'm sure there will be a few refinements and changes to the forecast before we get to Wednesday evening. We'll monitor!