Enjoyed Vermont Taste Of Spring? Good! Back To Winter!

The National Weather Service snow map is back! Click on it to
make it bigger and easier to see. As you can see, the current
forecast has highter snow totals, more than six inches, in the
higher elevations, with less in the valleys, where a mix
with rain is more likely 

Well, that was a nice couple of spring days in Vermont, wasn't it?

Certainly more than warm enough to play in the snow.

If you don't like the snow, you got rid of some of it, especially in the valleys.  Plus, I believe sugarmakers got some early runs in for this year's maple syrup harvest.

This taste of spring is just about over now, and it's back to winter.  We're only in late February, so that's to be expected.  

Given the kind of winter we've had, you'd think we're overdue for another one of many mixed precipitation winter storms. You would be right, and such a storm is on its way.

This time, it doesn't look like there will be a big amount of sleet and freezing rain. But it will rain and it will snow.  Where what falls and when is the challenge.

Pretty much all the storms we've had this winter were a nightmare to forecast, given the temperatures in each one were near 32 degrees. Plus each storm brought complex temperatures to different layers of the atmosphere. If you were off slightly in temperatures, even a degree or so, the forecast would be a bust.

The upcoming storm, in anything, is going to be the most difficult of all to forecast. True, sleet and freezing rain are mostly, but completely out of the picture. But when the heaviest precipitation hits, will it be rain or snow?  Again, being off by a degree in temperature will throw the whole forecast off.

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington sees it, this will be an elevation dependent storm.  This type of scenario becomes more likely as we head into late February or March.  Overall temperatures have begun to warm up toward spring, so valleys tend to be more likely to support a cold rain.

But not always.

Anyway, it looks like there's going to be sharp differences between what goes on in the valleys and up the road 800 or so feet higher.

Here's how the NWS in South Burlington thinks things will play out.

The rest of today will be much cloudier and somewhat cooler than it's been for the past couple of days, but still on the mild side for this time of year. There will be a few spits of wet snowflakes and rain drops around, but it won't amount to anything, really.

There will probably be areas of light sleet and snow around tonight, causing a few slick spots as temperatures fall to near or below freezing.

On Wednesday, things will pick up a bit with somewhat steadier light snow, with a little rain in the valleys. It won't rain and snow all day, but it will be dank and wet and somewhat slushy.

Wednesday night and Thursday morning will bring the main show.  And the part of the forecast that is by far the trickiest

As heavier precipitation arrives, that will tend to cool the atmosphere, which favors snow. But slightly warmer air will trying to come in from the south and east, favoring rain, at least in the valleys.

National Weather Service meteorologist believe it will be cold enough for wet snow, even in the valleys. But it will be so slushy, and possibly mixed with rain, that the warmer low elevations will only get a couple inches of soggy snow.

Go up a few hundred feet in elevation and it would be a completely different scenario, forecasters believed as of this Tuesday morning. If you're up at an elevation of 800 or 1,000 feet, you could easily see four to eight inches of wet snow.  The mountain summits could see a foot or more.

Then there will be the local effects. On the immediate lee of the Green Mountains, on the eastern side, strong maybe even damaging downslope winds seem like they want to get cranking later Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Those winds could cause local power line problems and bring down a few trees. The downslope winds also tend to dry the atmosphere right up against the west side of the mountains, so precipitation could, maybe, be much lighter there.

Since this will be wet, heavy snow, there's definitely the risk of power failures.  If you live in areas out of the valleys, be prepared for that. The heaviest snow will come down on the eastern and southeastern slopes of the mountains.

Things will taper off Thursday afternoon.  Then, Thursday night and into the weekend, it will turn much colder.  Persistent snow showers will continue, especially in the northern and central Green Mountains, where several more inches of snow could pile up betweeen Thursday afternoon and Saturday.

This bodes well for the ski areas.  There, the warm, but rather dry weather over the past couple of days didn't cause much damage to the snowpack.  Plus, by the time the weekend hits, it looks like there will be a decent addition to the snow on the slopes.

By the way, I said it will turn much colder, but it's late enough in the winter in which cold snaps often don't have the bite they did in January.

This means highs on Friday and Saturday will be within a few degrees of 20, and lows will be in the single numbers. Cold, yes, but not unbearable.

It'll start to warm up again somewhat toward Sunday and Monday.

Bottom line, get ready for another messy storm that will probably make your commutes to and from work annoying  on Thursday and maybe cut your power.  And, unless you live in a warmer valley, you face a backbreaking chore of clearing heavy, wet snow after the storm is over.

Also, definitely be ready for surprises.  The valleys that are now forecast to get an inch or two of slush could end up getting much more, if the temperature is a degree or two colder than now forecast.  Or, the rain could creep a little further up the hillsides if it's just a degree or two on the warm side.

I'm sure there will be a few refinements and changes to the forecast before we get to Wednesday evening. We'll monitor!

Vermont Snow Really Piling Up On Hills. Deeper Valleys Not So Much -- Yet

Not as much snow in many Vermont valleys as feared this morning,
but the snow is on the way. Updated National Weather Service
forecast map still shows more than six inches coming in the
yellow and orange areas, three to five inches, generally in
the blue. Snow accumulations still look really dependent on elevations

1 p.m. FRIDAY STORM UPDATE

So far today, the snowstorm is behaving largely as expected, although there are some picky details that are altering things a bit.

As expected, the lowest elevations are getting a rain/snow mix. Web cams in the Champlain Valley, for instance, show little if any accumulation.

Go up just a couple hundred feet in elevation, and it's sticking.

Run uphill another couple, or few hundred feet, and the snow is sticking to the roads. Web cams out of Berlin, Vermont showed a snow covered, slippery Interstate 89 at that relatively high elevation.

The web cams also show sagging trees under the weight of the heavy, wet snow, so it looks like power failures will be an increasing problem as we go through the day into tonight.  We were closing in on 3,000 outages or so as of shortly before 1 p.m. in Vermont.

Those outages will spread to new areas as it gets colder later today and this evening. Rain/snow mixes in the lowlands will change to all snow, and the trees and lines will get weighted down there, as well.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington added Washington and Caledonia counties to the winter storm warning, as more snow than expected seems to be coming down in those areas. Especially in the higher elevations.

There's already some relatively impressive snow totals out there so far in the mid and high elevations. By noon, Cabot had accumulated nine inches, and Middlesex had eight inches. Lots of places had two to five inches.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Storms like the one currently harassing us Vermonters have a high bust potential, as noted yesterday, and here we go with that.

The good news for most of us who have to get to work is, this Friday morning isn't nearly as bad as we thought it would be last night.

Even so, the precipitation became heavier just in time for this morning's rush hour. Which the National Weather Service in South Burlington said would happen.

So road conditions did deteriorate as we were headed to work this morning. On my trip from St. Albans to Burlington at around 8 a.m., light rain had just changed to heavy wet snow, but the road wasn't snow or slush covered - yet.

The bad news (or more good news if you're a die-hard winter freak) is most of us still have a BUNCH of snow on the way.  Yes, even in the valleys.

Overnight and early this morning, it has been snowing in the mid and high elevations, while valleys have had a cold, light rain, or a mix of light, wet snow and rain.   As of 6 a.m. roads in the Champlai Valley were good, as temperatures hovered a few degrees above freezing. Elsewhere in Vermont, it depends on where you are. Roads are good to bad, depending on elevation.

The morning will continue with the mix of rain and snow, with all snow above 1,000 feet. You'll probably notice in the valleys that it will often be more likely rain when the precipitation is lighter, and snow when it gets heavier. That's the nature of the beast.

It now looks like the most "interesting" part of this storm comes in late this afternoon and tonight. The nor'easter will strengthen as it moves, well, northeastward into the Maine coast.

When this happens, there is often added lift, or rising motion in the air to the west of the storm. Rising air encourages precipitation, and we in Vermont will be west of the storm. So precipitation will start to come down more heavily later today. 


Wet snow falling in Winooski, Vermont this morning. It was warm
enough at the time that it was not sticking to the road.

At the same time, north winds will be strengthening as the storm deepens, and that will pull down some colder air from Canada. Everybody in Vermont and northern New York will transition to snow.

The mountains still look like they will get blasted. The western slopes of the Green Mountains, the summits, the Northeast Kingdom and parts of north-central Vermont north of Route 2 will get six to 12 inches, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  All of those spots are still under a winter storm warning until noon Saturday.

The Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley of New York can also expect six to 12 inches. Some mountainous areas look like they will get as much as a foot and a half of snow, especially in the High Peaks of the Adirondacks and the ski areas and highest elevations in the northern half of Vermont.

Lower elevations, like the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys and maybe deeper river valleys like right along the Winooski River, will get three to eight inches of snow, says the NWS. Again, this will be really dependent on elevation, with amounts rapidly increasing the more uphill you go. All these areas are still under a winter weather advisory. 

Winds will really pick up by tonight, so the wet snow and the wind will weigh down trees and power lines. Expect at least some power outages across the state overnight and Saturday morning. There could be quite a few outages, if things get bad.  Gusts will reach 40 mph in many spots. Roads will be lousy overnight and Saturday morning.

Remember, wet snow on roads is even more slippery than the powdery stuff. Slush is deceptive. It's almost always is worse than it looks.

The snow will become more and more confined to the western slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks during Saturday morning then finally taper off.

Some sun will appear in many areas during Saturday afternoon, but like I said yesterday, so what, it will still be wintry. Temperatures will make it into the low 30s at best in most locations, and that stiff north wind will continue.

Sunday still looks better, but that next Arctic front looks like it's moving a little faster. Clouds will creep in across the north after a sunny start Sunday, and there might be a light rain shower toward the end of the day as temperatures briefly make it into the 40s.

Monday and Tuesday still look miserably wintry, windy and cold with subfreezing highs and lows in the unseasonable single numbers and low teens. A temporary warming trend still looks to arrive during the second half of the week, and that will melt some of the new snow, at least in the valleys.