Spring Brings, Odd Snows, Fire Risks, Possibly Thunderstorms, Wind, You Name It

Springtime snow in North Carolina Tuesday.

It's spring, so here in Vermont and in much of the rest of the nation, it's the season to expect the unexpected more so than any time of year. I think we're now in the peak "anything goes" weather time of year, so there's all kinds of relatively odd things going on.  

For the most part, there's no super extreme weather to talk about for the next couple of days here or anywhere else in the East, but it sure is interesting for a weather geek like me.

There has been, or very soon will be, snow in unusual places for this time of year, a beautiful nor'easter, fire weather risks, some possible thunder, and some throwbacks to winter.

Many but not all of these are affecting us here in Vermont.

A NEAR-MISS NOR'EASTER

Yesterday, as an impressive nor'easter got going off the coast of North Carolina, the storm manufactured its own cold air pocket, which allowed rain to change to snow in many parts of North Carolina. Charlotte, North Carolina picked up 0.1 inches of snow, only the second time in the past 100 years they had measureable snow in April.

Some areas of the state picked up more than an inch and a half of snow. This is an area where trees are already leafing out, so it is unusual.

The nor'easter was beautiful, at least to us weather geeks. It did manage to stay offshore enough to minimize its impacts. That's a good thing because this was a strong one. Hurricane force winds were reported offshore. There were probably some intense waterspouts out there over the open ocean, and on satellite photos, the nor'easter developed a feature that looked like the eye of a hurricane.

Impressive nor'easter off the North Carolina coast yesterday.

Had this storm hugged the coast, there would have been a terrible snowstorm all the way up the East Coast into our neck of the woods, with flooding rains, and battering wind and storm surges in along the Northeast coast.

The nor'easter did produce gusty rains in eastern New England overnight and was dumping some snow in eastern Maine.

WIND AND FIRE

Behind this storm and ahead of a cold front coming in from the northwest, it's windy in the Northeast, or at least becoming so. The air is quite dry in much of the Mid-Atlantic states and in the southwestern half of New England.

This is the time of year when vegetation from last year is drying out and new green stuff hasn't really gotten going yet. The dry air and wind and the dead weeds and brush can easily go up in flames in this weather.

There's a big area including all of New Jersey, most of Pennsylvania, most of Maryland, parts of southwestern New York and other places that are under a Red Flag Warning today.

A Red Flag Warning means there's a big risk of fast moving, dangerous grass, brush or forest fires. It's kind of unusual to have this kind of a warning in this area, especially one that covers such a big area. But you do get these alerts in the Northeast from time to time around now. Red Flag Warnings are much more common in the West.

There have already been a lot of brush and forest fires in the area covered by the Red Flag Warning in recent days, so more are likely.

In parts of Vermont, particularly the Champlain Valley roughly south of Burlington and the Connecticut Valley floor south of White River Junction, the snow has melted. There is a risk of brush fires in these areas of the Green Mountain State, too, due to winds and dry air today.

THUNDERSTORMS? THEN WINTER AGAIN

A sign of spring is coming from the north today. But it being spring, so there's some wintry aspects of this, too.

That cold front coming in from the northwest is pretty starved for moisture, but does have a lot of energy with it. This looks like it will produce the first band of convective showers and possible thunderstorms of the warmer season in northern Vermont later today.

Convection is basically those towering clouds you see mostly in the summer that produce showers and thunderstorms.  They're mostly a creature of the warm season.

So, it's a sign of spring I suppose that we might get some convection today, especially near the border with Canada. There won't be anything severe, but there might be some rumbles of thunder, some gusty winds, maybe even a tiny hailstone or two in the stronger ones.

It will be windy anyway this afternoon, with gusts over 45 mph, but the stronger storms racing across northern New York and Vermont could produce gusts stronger than that.

As the cold front goes through, it will produce a few more scattered showers, and those will turn to snow in the mountains as it gets colder. Winter will kind of come back. Tomorrow will be windy and cold, with highs in many areas not getting out of the 30s. The coldest valleys of the Northeast Kingdom could reach the single digits above zero again tomorrow night.

A weather system coming through Friday and Friday night could put down a slushy light accumulation of snow in the mid and high elevations, though it will probably be cold, light rain in the valleys.

EARLY SPRING CANCELED

It also is beginning to appear that long range forecasts suggesting that spring would really blossom in our neck of the woods in April were wrong.  Many extended forecasts issued in late March indicated April would mostly be on the warmer than average side here and in much of the rest of the nation.

Although there will probably be some relatively pleasant days here and there, the trend will be unsettled and on the chilly side most days going forward through most of the month here in Vermont.

Blame, in part, this ridiculously resilient ridge in Alaska that has kept that state unusually warm for months. For some reason, these northward and incredibly persistent bulges in the jet stream have been forming repeatedly over the past decade in the eastern Pacific or in western North America for the past decades.

I know climate scientists are looking into this. Are these "ridiculously resilient ridges" at least partly a product of climate change or just chance? Some preliminary science suggests that climate change can create "stuck" weather patterns, so we shall see.