Last Year Was A Soggy One For The United States

According to the National Centers For Environmental Information,
the contiguous U.S. had its second wettest year on record. Only
the Pacific Northwest, South Texas and a bit of the Southeast
were dry. 

Figures came in the other day for how the climate fared in the United States in 2019.

Early indications are that the world as a whole had its second warmest year on record in 2019.  We should get more information on that in the next few days.

Meanwhile, the United States only had its 34th warmest out of 125 years of keeping track. It was also the coolest year overall for the nation since 2014, says the National Centers for Environmental Information.  

Nothing extreme, but not totally in line with the global warming trend, either.

That's not to say parts of the United States weren't hot.  And I mean hot, big time.  North Carolina and Georgia had their hottest years on record, and other Southeastern States came close to that, ranking in the top 10.  Alaska also had by far its hottest year on record.

The real news is how wet the nation was in 2019. It was the second wettest year in the Lower 48, with only 1973 being wetter, says NCEI.  Average precipitation across the contiguous United States was 34.78. That's 4.84 inches above average, which doesn't sound like much. But when you consider that some areas will naturally be very wet and others very dry in a typical year, this departure from normal is pretty damn large.

The Northern Plains had an especially miserable year.  It was quite a bit colder than normal in 2019 and a lot wetter than normal.

South Dakota had it the worst. It was the wettest year on record there, and the 12th coldest in 125 years of record keeping.

Four other states - North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan - also had their wettest year on record in 2019, but those states weren't as cold as South Dakota, at least relative to average, notes the NCEI.   North Carolina, Georgia and Alaska had their hottest years on record. Other states in the Southeast were in the Top 10 warmest.

For the record, for the entire state of Vermont, it was the 45th warmest out of 125 years. So yeah, a bit on the warm side, but nothing breathtaking.

Vernont also only had its 47th wettest year on record, again no great shakes. But interestingly, the northern parts of the state were unusually wet, with Burlington having one of its top ten wettest years on record. Southern Vermont was much drier, which explains the lackluster rain year in the Green Mountain State.

The United States had 14 weather-related disasters that each caused at least $1 billion in damage. These included eight severe storm and tornado outbreaks, three inland floods, a hurricane (Dorian), a tropical storm (Imelda) and one wildfire.

The billion dollar events cost a total of $45 billion in damage, just over the long term, inflation adjusted average of $43.9 billion per year.

Billion dollar disasters are getting more frequent and costly. Although part of that is likely due to climate change, another large part of the problem is more people are in the way of storms and other weather events, and many of the properties damaged are more elaborate than those in the past.

I'm actually wondering if we're starting the new decade with a new billion dollar disaster already. The expected tornadoes, severe storms, ice storms and flooding for a huge section of the nation today through Sunday will almost surely come to more than $1 billion.  Part of that is just because of the huge area the storm is covering.

Of course, it remains to be seen what the coming year and decade hold, but I'm sure there will be a warming and stormier trend.

Weird, Wild, Dangerous Storm Gets Under Way Today

 I love these three big trees in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard. I
definitely risk losing them to the oncoming ice storm, unfortunately. 

Up here where I live in Franklin County, Vermont, I'm already mourning the likely loss of some trees I love in my yard.

There's that damn ice storm coming, that's whh.

I already lost a beautiful willow tree to the storm back on November 1.  I have three enormous poplars in the back yard. They're just wonderful. But they don't hold up well in heavy ice accumulations.  So, maybe I'll lose those.

A row of cedar trees has grown up over the years on the south side of the property facing the road. They've helped turned the back yard into a private Eden. Cedars don't hold up in ice, either. So they're gone.  

That's why we can't have nice things, right?

Maybe I'm overstating this. I hope I am. Maybe the trees will be saggy under the ice for a couple days then everything will be fine. I just don't like the risk. I love my trees almost as much as I love my precious two dogs.

Regarding the ic, forecasts have been pretty consistent for days now as to what will happen with this storm. It's still looking like the northern border counties of Vermont and New York will get a ton of ice. Slightly further south, there's a flood risk.

I'll get into the specifics in a minute, but first let's set this storm up.  It is a weird one.

First of all, conditions are very ripe in the South for severe weather because winds veering with height south and east of the storm center. Ahead of the main line of severe thunderstorms with this system, supercells could easily develop. They have the potential to bring strong, long lasting tornadoes to parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma and parts of Lousiana and Arkansas. Huge hailstones might fall with these, too.

A squall line of severe thunderstorms will also form and zoom eastward today, tonight and tomorrow through the Gulf Coast states.

A low-level jet, which is a current of fast-moving air a couple to a few thousand feet over the Earth's surface, will be going over this region. The low level jet is a product of this strong storm system and is unusually strong, as it's expected to reach speeds of up to 100 mph.

It's so strong people in the Gulf Coast states will probably be able to hear it roaring overhead.

This squall line will be able to grab chunks of this high speed air from a few thousand feet overhead and bring it to the surface. That means there's going to be a lot of wind damage with this. There will probably be widespread gusts of 75 mph or more with some of these storms.

Worse, the air will still be veering with height, so there probably will be some embedded tornadoes with this dangerous squall line.

Luckily, we in New England don't have to worry about this aspect of the storm, although there is a chance of gusty thunderstorms in southern New England Sunday.

The forecasts have been steady as she goes as the storm lifts northeastward later tonight, Saturday and into Sunday. Along the storm path, a broad band of heavy rain has prompted a widespread area of flood watches extending from northeastern Texas, through the Midwest, parts of the Great Lakes and on into central Vermont.

North and west of that line, it appears there will be a nearly equally broad band of damaging freezing rain. It'll extend from Oklahoma and Missouri, up through Illinois, into the Great Lakes and on into Ontario and southern Quebec, and northern New England.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Expected ice amounts in northern areas. I expect there to be somewhat
thicker ice than this. You start to see some damage at a quarter
inch thick. At a half inch, damage starts to get more substantial.

Of course you've noticed by now I've mentioned flood watches and a risk of damaging ice in Vermont in this post.

One thing that gives me confidence this forecast is fairly accurate is the computer models, and the forecasts, have been pretty consistent for days.

As always, the devil is in the details.  

The details are a forecasting nightmare.  The temperature gradient across Vermont Saturday night will be extreme.

 I have a feeling that somewhere in western Vermont, there will be a 30-mile or less zone where the temperature goes from the mid 50s to around 32 degrees south to north. As you can imagine, that makes it basically impossible to tell who gets what and when.

The broad brush expectation from the National Weather Service in South Burlington will have to do, then.

The (very reasonable) way they see things developing is this:

It's windy today, especially in the Champlain Valley, as you've surely noticed. That'll keep temperatures rising through the 30s and 40s during the day today and tonight.  There might be a little rain around, but not much.

In southern areas of Vermont especially, temperatures will keep rising into the 50s to possibly near 60  as we get into Saturday.

Meanwhile, as the real rain begins in earnest, that low level cold front will slip down from Canada into northern Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire.

How far south the cold front gets, and whether it wobbles north at times during the storm, will determine how much ice will accumulate.  Remember, it will stay quite warm a few thousand feet overhead. So we won't get any snow, except maybe at the very tail end of the storm.

Instead, rain will fall into that thin layer of subfreezing air near the surface and freeze on contact.

Generally speaking, you start to see scattered power outages and tree damage when ice gets to be about a quarter inch thick.  At half an inch, the damage gets pretty extensive. At three quarters to an inch thick, there's widespread, serious tree damage and also widespread, long-lasting power failures.

Early thoughts are Burlington's ice accumulation will be around a quarter of an inch. Bad, but not the end of the world.

But when you get to the northern border counties, we're talking a half inch of ice or more, which is definitely serious. There could be ice at least an inch thick in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.  That area is really in trouble.

Of course, if the freezing rain begins earlier than expected and lasts longer than we think now, everything would be even worse. Stay tuned.  For now, there's a winter storm watch for this scenario in the northern border counties.

Here are some tips for those of you in the expected ice zone:

--- Charge up your devices before the storm.  The power outages might last a long time.

--- Get battery operated candles and lights ready, too. Make sure in advance you have plenty of extra batteries.

---- Fill up the car with gas, too. If the power is out, the gas stations can't pump gas. Don't park under trees, as branches or the whole thing might come down. If you park outside, consider covering your vehicle with a tarp. It'll be easier to get the ice off when this storm is over.

----  Get some cash, too.  If you need to buy anything, especially in an emergency, stores with no power won't be able to process your credit or debit card

---- If you're going to use an electric generator, for gawd's sake make sure no fumes get in the house and everything exhausts outside. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

-----This being Captain Obvious, but stay away from downed power lines and out from under trees.  You never know when a branch will snap off.

At this point,  it's still seeming like precipitation will be mostly plain rain from very roughly Route 2 south, although there might be periods and pockets of freezing rain, too.

There's an inch or two of rain or melted ice coming with this storm, plus the squirt of warm air will melt what snow we have out there. So, there's a floo warning from immediately south of winter storm warning zone near the border down to Rutland and Windsor counties.

Precipitation will be somewhat lighter in far southern Vermont, which means so far, there's no flood alerts there.

The rain, and freezing rain and whatever else will end Sunday afternoon, but the ice will stay on everything in the north. Gusty winds will cause additional power outages and tree damage. Ugh.

I don't know about you, but I am NOT looking forward to this storm.

Australian Firefighter Saves Baby Kangaroo

A filmmaker and Instagram star who volunteered to fight Australian
wildfires grabbed this baby kangaroo just before flames would have
reach it. Video of the rescue has gone viral.

One of the many heartbreaking aspects of the Australian wildfire crisis is the toll this is taking on animals.

There's been wildly varying reports of how much wildlife has died, but it's clear the toll is devastating.

When you witness just one animal victim,  your heart just breaks.  You wish every animal could be rescued.

Such is the case in the video at the bottom of this post, in which a firefighter finds a baby kangaroo, just inches from a line of flames coming at it.  .

In the now viral video,  fire is creeping along in a forest, and firefighters are trying to stop or slow by spraying water on it from hoses. Suddenly, one of the firefighters, who turns out to be a travel filmmaker and big Instagram star named Sam McGlone, stoops down and grabs the baby kangaroo, which is less than a foot away from the advancing flames. It truly is an incredibly close call.

"I found a baby joey i the fire," McGlone says, turning the camera to face himself.  He wrapped the baby kangaroo in a blanket, fed it some water.

Indications are the kangaroo was sent to an animal rehab center.

McGlone also started a GoFundMe page to raise money to help animals affected by the wildfires. He joins many others, including rich and famous celebrities, who have the money and the influence over their fans to raise a lot of money for Australian human and animal fire victims. t

McGlone rescuing the kangaroo was a bright spot in this horrific disaster, but how many animals died because nobody was in the middle of the fires to find them?  After all, people were fleeing for their own lives and some didn't make it. So far, at least 24 people have died in the Australian bushfires.

It's not clear how many animals died in the fires, but the numbers are huge. According to The Independent, Universityof Sydney ecologists think perhaps 480 million animals have died in the fire,s including 8,000 or so koalas.

Here's the video:

Weekend Storm Still Looking Dangerous For Vermont, Many Other Parts Of Nation

Will northern Vermont get a nasty, but manageable amount of ice like
this over the upcoming weekend or will it be worse?
Nobody is certain yet, stay tuned! 

It looks like I'll want to do daily updates on the approaching potentially dangerous storm this weekend here in Vermont. At least until it hits.

The expected vast, serious storm continues to put Vermont at risk for flooding and potentially damaging ice.

The storm is a forecasting nightmare and will continue to be even when it is in progress Saturday and Sunday, so expect surprises.  Not all of the surprises will be pleasant, for sure.  

At this point, if forecasts go amazingly close to accurate, some flooding is a good possibility across a good chunk of Vermont, given the rather heavy rain and snow melt that will come with the storm.

The highest potential for damaging freezing rain and ice accumulations are in the northern and maybe central Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom. Sections of northern New York and southern Quebec are also under the gun with this scenario.

The first piece of this storm will rocket from around Kansas to the Great Lakes today and tonight, driving a warm front through Vermont.

After today's chilly weather, you'll notice temperatures going up overnight tonight. In the Champlain Valley, you'll really notice the wind pick up, with gusts to at least 45 mph in spots later tonight and tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile the main storm will start to gather around Texas. That's why there's a severe weather outbreak scheduled for Friday and Saturday in the Deep South.

The storm is transporting huge amounts of moisture and heat northward in the eastern third of the nation, which will produce that heavy rain in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, and the record warmth along the East Coast.

A band of freezing rain and sleet will travel along the northern and western periphery of the storm.  That's where Vermont's troubles come into play.

Cold high pressure is stll expected to establish itself in Ontario and Quebec. That would push a cold front down into northern New England, including northern Vermont.

What comes from the sky, then, during the storm will depend upon where this weather front gets stuck, or wavers back and forth. If forecasters are off on its position by as little as 10 or 20 miles, then the weather forecast for the storm will be wrong.

The reality check is, forecasts are almost alway off by a dozen or two doze  miles with the location and speed of a cold or warm front no matter what the situation.  Usually this margin of error has little effect on weather forecasts and the predictions end up being accurate.

I doubt it this time. That's because, first of all, the temperature contrast across the front will be tremendous.  I can see a scenario in which its 30 degrees in St. Albans and 60 degrees in Rutland during parts of the storm.

On top of that, this is shallow, low level cold air coming in from the north. Temperatures aloft will remain very balmy.  It's possible in northern Vermont we could get temperatures in the upper 40s on the summits of the Green Mountains while freezing rain coats trees and power lines in the valleys.

If current forecasts are to be believed, the cold air would begin bleeding into the Champlain Valley, some spots in the Northeast Kingdom and northern New York Saturday afternoon or evening.

We don't know how far south the front will get, and whether it will lift back across the International Border during the height of the storm.

If the front stays draped across southern or central Vermont, the northern Champlain Valley and other northern locations could easily see the worst ice storm since the epic one in 1998.  Although, looking at the bright side, there seems to be no way this one would be as bad as 1998.

I have seen in some of these situations that the cold air from Quebec can bleed south along valley floors as far south as Rutland, so we'll have to keep an eye on that.

On the other hand, if southerly winds win out, the temperature would stay or go back above freezing Saturday night all the way to the Canadian border. That would be nice in that we'll escape the worst of the damaging ice.

By the same token, that warm air north would put all of Vermont in play for the risk of flooding. Heavy rain mixed with temperatures in the 50s to around 60 melts snow pretty quickly too.

The heaviest rain or ice or even possibly sleet or snow in the far north would come down Saturday night and early Sunday morning. It would taper off pretty quickly on Sunday afternoon as the storm heads away from us.

Stay tuned on this one.  It's certainly shaping up to be the first really nasty storm of 2020.

Top Vermont Weather Events Of The Decade 2010a

An iconic, old Vermont house destroyed by Tropicql Storm
Irene in 2011.

I'm a little late to the game here, given it's a week into the new year, but here's my list of Vermont's top 10 weather events of the decade that just ended at basically one minute before midnight, December 31, 2019.

I'm interested to see what people will think of my ranking.  My list is surely colored by personal experience, where I was living in that decade in northwestern Vermont, and what made an impression on me.

So, here are my nominees and what happened during those rather momentous wather events.

1. Tropical Storm Irene Flood Disaster, August 28-29, 2011

Hurricane Irene, not the worst hurricane ever as it came ashore at Cape Lookout, North Carolina with top winds of 85 mph.

But as it made its way northward the next day, with its huge slug of wet air into New England, it unleashed torrential downpours on an already sodden Vermont, unleashing the state's worst weather disaster since the Great Flood of 1927.

In a few places, it was as bad or worse than 1927. For instance, my late father who was still around in 2011 an a lifelong resident of West Rutland,  said Irene's flood crest was a little lower in town than in 1927, but the Otter Creek in nearby Center Rutland was higher than in 1927.

By the time in reached Vermont and New Hampshire, Irene was "downgraded" to a tropical storm.  However, tropical systems moving inland often create serious floods. That was the case here.

Irene killed six Vermonters, which is terrible, of course. Yet in these times, weather warnings from the National Weather Service and elsewhere are terrific. This storm was warned well in advance, with strongly worded statements from the NWS.  Which left us a silver lining: People got out of the way, and the death toll was so much less than the 84 deaths in Vermont the 1927 caused.

Farmstand owners and workers and volunteers frantically try to save
pumpkins and other merchanes amid rapidlyu rising
Mad River waters in Waitsfield, Vermont during Tropical
Storm Irene, Auguist 28, 2011.

The statistics, courtesy of Vermont Businss Magazine,  are staggering.  More than 500 miles of state highways and 200 state bridges were wrecked. It cost about 200 million to fix that damage

More than 2,000 municipal road segments were damaged, as were 280 town bridges and 960 culverts.   In the immediate aftermath of the storm, thirteen towns were without passable roads leading in and out of town.

The resilience of Vermonters shined bright during and immediately after the disaster. Volunteers arrived in droves to the hardest hit towns and mucked out muddy basements, cleaned houses, cleared debris, and offered food, money, supplies and moral support in droves.

By the time Vermont's all important fall foliage season arrived about six weeks after Irene, most roads were open, and much of the state looked like it was back to its old self, even as flood victims quietly continued trying to pick up the pieces.

One terrific example of this came on the Rachel Maddow show just under three weeks after Irene.  She showed what wiped-out Route 4 in Mendon looked like the immediate aftermath of Irene, and what a marvelous job construction crews did rebuilding it in less than three weeks.

2. Spring Flooding April-June, 2011

Lamoille River floodwaters cascade through trees near Fairfax,
Vermont during severe flooding in April, 2011.

The year 2011 was really the year of the flood in Vermont. A few months before Irene, in February and March, snow lay deep in Vermont, especially in higher elevations.

A  record large snowstorm in early March didn't help.  Water content in the snow was exceptionally high.

Minor flooding began in late March, and waxed and waned throughout the spring. On Vermont rivers, the worst flooding came on April 26-27 and on May 26 and 27.  Meanwhile, through all this, Lake Champlain reached record, destructive flood levels. More on that in a minute.

The first high flood, on April 26-27, was part of the same storm system that caused arguably the nation's worst tornado outbreak on record in the southeastern third of the nation.

Here, unseasonable waves of thunderstorms, some borderline severe, dumped heavy rain atop of snow that was still deep in the higher elevations. The melting was fast because of mild temperatures in the 50s and 60s. By early morning on April 27, the Lamoille River reached its fourth highest level on record, causing damaging floods along the river from above Johnson down through Milton.

The second wave of flooding struck as part of a severe weather outbreak on May 26-27.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington described the storms as a parade of mini-super cells that trecked across northern New York and through central and northern Vermont.

The storms prompted some tornado warnings in central Vermont, but none were known to have touched down. Baseball sized hail was reported at Duxbury,

Overnight on the 26th, the storms jelled into a train of storms that dumped up to seven inches of rain on central Vermont. This led to serious flooding, especially in the Winooski River Valley from Plainfield all the way to Lake Champlain.  Barre and Montpelier were especially hard hit, with numerous buildings damaged and roads wiped out.

Five to seven inches of rain fell on saturated soil in a band from around Barre to near St. Johnsbury, causing the extensive floods.

The series of floods inland over Vermont and New York during the spring of 2011 caused easily the worst flood on record for Lake Champlain.

At Burlington, Lake Champlain reached a record crest of 103.2 feet on May 6, 2011 easily exceeding the previous record of 102.1 feet in 1869.  

Camps destroyed by record Lake Champain flooding in May, 2011.

An estimated 500 Vermont homes were severely damaged by the flooding.  Extensive damage was reported in New York and especially southern Quebec.

In Quebec, the Richelieu River is the main outlet for Lake Champlain.  With the lake at record high levels, that river inevitably reached record high levels, too, flooding hundreds of homes.

Lake Champlain is a pretty big lake, so strong winds can stir up some big waves. Much of the destruction was caused by large, battering waves striking the shore.

The spring flooding helped set the stage for Irene a few months later.  The soil was still very soggy by June, and continued rains during the summer kept it that way. Then Irene's rains came.

Flood, Wind Storm October 31-November 1, 2019

Winooski River in Winooski, Vermont in high flood,
November 1, 2019.

This was probably Vermont's most destructive storm since Tropical Storm Irene.  After a very rainy October that saturated soils, a strong storm passed northeastward across the eastern Great Lakes into Quebec.  

This put Vermont into the warm side of the storm, the side in which deep tropical moisture rode northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

On Halloween night, the storm dumped three to five inches of rain across the northern half of Vermont in just a few hours, creating flash floods that damaged or destroyed dozens of culverts and road segments. Many homes were damaged as well.

In Burlington, 3.30 inches of rain fell as temperatures reached a record high of 71 degrees late in the evening of October 31.  Streets flooded, stalling cars. A landslide off Riverside Avenue nearly took a couple buildings with it.

Sections of two rivers in northern Vermont - the Lamoille and Missisquoi - reached record crests, flooding more buildings.

Behind the storm on November 1, strong west winds gusting as high as 65 mph cut power to?????  homes and caused damaged to roofs, other structures and trees.

3. March, 2017 Pi Day Storm 

Stuck cars amid near zero visibility during the Pi Day blizzard
of March 14, 2017.

An easy contender for one of the most intense snowstorms in Vermont history hit on March 14, 2017.

 The so-called Pi Day Storm (because it hit on Pi (3.14) dumped more than 30  inches of snow in parts of northwestern Vermont and New York.

Burlington's snow total reached 30.4 inches, which is the second deepest snowstorm on record and easily the biggest March snowstorm on record for the Queen City.

During the afternoon of March 14, snow fell at the rate of up to five inches per hour.  A foot of snow fell in Burlington in just over four hours. People who were foolhardy enough to go to work that morning pretty much could not drive home that late afternoon.

Thankfully, the storm was well-forecast by the National Weather Service, so most people had hunkered down at home to wait the storm out.

Also, the snow was relatively dry and powdery, so there were no issues with power lines and trees.

Even so, the western half of the state basically shut down during the blizzard.

4. May 2013 Flood and Snow, With More flooding June, July 2013

If you look  carefully you can see a swimming pool  beneath muddy
flash flood water on July 4, 2013. This storm was toward
the end of a nearly two-month siege of heavy rain
and flooding in Vermont. 

Vermont got locked into an incredibly wet pattern in mid-May of 2013, and it turned out to be something we couldn't shake until we got well into July.

The result was repeated flash floods and incredibly wet soil conditions that took a toll on farming throughout the state.

The rains came around the third week in May. Burlington received a whopping 7.47 inches of rain in the six days ending May 26. That's twice the normal amount for the entire month. Rainfall of that intensity was common in the northern half of the state during this period.

On May 21 through 23, the heavy rain came in the form of thunderstorms, some of which formed into a train of repeated storms over north-central Vermont.

The result was a swath of flash flood damage in northwestern Vermont, especially around Underhill and Cambridge.

On May 25, unusually cold air swept in and changed rain to snow at mid and high elevations, leading to some incredible snow totals for so late in the season. It was Memorial Day weekend, after all.

The summit of Whiteface Mountain, New York was buried beneath 30 inches of snow. In Vermont, Jay Peak had 18 inches, and the summit of Mount Mansfield had 13.2 inches.  At lower elevations in Vermont, Walden reported six inches,  Greensboro, 4.5 inches, Topsham, 3.5 inches and Troy, two inches.

Repeated flash flooding continued through June and into early July.  The floods would hit individual towns here and there through the period as the rest of the state endured continued soggy conditions.

In late June, a torrential thunderstorm flooded a several mile stretch of southbound Interstate 89 in Williston and Richmond and caused other property damage in northwestern Vermont.

Huntington was hit hard on July 3 On July 4, more flash flooding caused additional extensive damage, especially to local roads in an area centered around Jericho, Underhill and Richmond.

Total rainfall in June at Burlington amounted to 9.86 inches, which was just 0.06 inches shy of the wettest June on record. Essex Junction reporte 10.48 inches for the month.

5. July 4, 2012 Storms

Flooding in Burlington, Vermont after a very severe thunderstorm
on July 4, 2012.

Two severe storm complexes moved southeastward across parts of Vermont on the afternoon and evening of July 4 causing widespread wind damage and some flash flooding.

A third storm, a supercell, caused damage in northwestern New York that afternoon.

In Vermont, the first storm complex of the day formed near the Quebec border just north of Jay Peak and moved into the Northeast Kingdom during the mid-afternoon.

Strong straight line winds caused lots of tree damage throughout much of that area. Winds gusted to 70 mph in Walden.

The second, more serious storm complex formed southwest of Montreal and traveled southwestward down the Champlain Valley. The storms arrived just before planned fireworks festivities and other events, sending people scrambling for cover. Luckily, storm warnings were both timely and strongly worded, so no serious injuries were reported.

The storms did pack probably the strongest punch for a storm since the extreme severe storm outbreak and Colchester EF-2 tornado of 1983.  Winds hit 75 mph at Diamond Island, 70 mph in Colchester and 63 mph in Burlington.

There was widespread tree and power line damage. The storm produced intense rains. That caused flash flooding that damaged several buildings in and near downtown Burlington and stranded some cars. Nearly 1.4 inches of rain fell in Burlington in less than an hour.

6. December, 2014 Snow

A very wet, heavy and deep snowstorm struck Vermont in mid-December dumped six to 20 inches of snow that was basically the consistency of wet cement.  Damage was especially heavy in parts of Rutland County and the Champlain Valley.

The storm was considered by some the most destructive to Vermont's power lines since either Tropical Storm Irene or the Great Ice Storm of 1998.

7. Southwest Vermont Supercell, May, 2014

This is likely one of the most damaging single thunderstorm on record in Vermont (Outbreaks of many thunderstorms on the same day across Vermont were likely costlier).

The supercell thunderstorm developed in the southeastern Adirondacks around 2:30 p.m and barreled southeastward across Addison and Rutland counties before weakening in southeastern Vermont tha evening.

The storm produced a roughly three to four mile wide, 40 to 50 mile long stripe of hail and wind damage, with wind gusts to 74 mph near Bridport and very damaging hail, some golf ball sized or larger, especially in and around Rutland and Proctor.

8. Hot March, 2012

Vermont was affecting in what was very likely the nation's biggest March heat wave. The record heat extended from the northern Plains to the East Coast and on up into southeastern Canada.

Temperatures were as high as 84 in Montpelier, which tied the statewide record high for the month of March. It was 83  in Springfield and Union Village Dam. It wss 81 degrees up in the Northeast Kingdom in St. Johnsbury

Burlington had daily highs of 76. 79.80,81 and 81 on March 18-22. The month was a whopping 12.6 degrees above normal.

9. Hot February, 2017

Unprecedented springlike heat reached Vermont in late February, 2017 establishing some incredible new monthly records. On February 25, Burlington reached 72 degrees, beating the monthly record by a full nine degrees. (That record had been set just two days earlier.).  The 72 in both Burlington and Bennington established a new statewide record high for February.

10. Cold February, 2015

Winters have trended mild most of the time in Vermont over the past decade. However, a big exception was February, 2015.

Burlington ended the month 13.9 degrees colder than normal, enough to be the ?/coldest February on record. Sixteen of the 28 days were below zero.

Also Rans

There are other contenders for the top 10 weather events of the decade. Some that come to mind are the record hot summer of 2018, that killed six Vermonters. That's the one that maybe really should have been on the list.

Other biggies are the March 6-7 storm of 2011, which I briefly mentioned. It caused some flooding with heavy rain, which turned to heavy snow to the tune of two feet in northern Vermont.

Others include a severe storm outbreak in May, 2012 which included one tornado; dense smoke in Vermont on May 31, 2010 due to Quebec wildfires; Burlington's deepest single snowstorm, 33.1 inches as the decade opened on Jan 2-3, 2010; destructive ice jams and flooding, in January, 2018; severe thunderstorms and wind damage on July 8, 2014; and the supercells in northwestern Vermont and severe thunderstorms elsewhere on May 4, 2018.

Still Watching Dangerous Weekend Storm In Eastern U.S.

Forecast national map for Saturday. Note the very
strong high pressure off the East Coast pumping in
lots of very warm, wet air from the Gulf of Mexico. Storm shown
centered over Arksans will produce severe storms
and tornadoes south and east of it and ice to its northwest.
The storm moves into our area Saturday and especially
Sunday, with a risk of heavy ice or rain, and
possibly snow. 

Ingredients continue to come together for a dangerous storm in much of the eastern United States Friday through Sunday.

While forecasts will undoubtedly change somewhat as more updated data comes in, here's a quick broad brush of what the nation should expect, followed by effects here in Vermont.

Friday:  A line of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes develops in eastern Oklahoma and Texas and moves into Arkansas and Louisiana. Strong, damaging thunderstorms and a few tornadoes along this line.

Ahead of the squall line, a few supercells with possible tornadoes, might well develop, with the risk of a very big, strong tornado or two.

Heavy rain will develop in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys later in the day. There will be a freezing rain risk from about Nebraska to southern Wisconsin.

Saturday: The threat of severe storms and tornadoes will shift to the central Gulf Coast and lower Tennessee valley. Overall this two-day severe outbreak might resemble one of the stronger outbreaks more common in the spring and early summer.

Meanwhile, heavy rain and the threat of flooding will develop from the Gulf Coast through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and extend as far north as Michigan. There's a risk of a good amount of freezing rain in a broad band from Kansas, through Missouri, into northern Ilinois, Michigan and into Ontario.

Near record warmth will affect the East Coast.

Sunday: The heavy rain shifts to eastward a bit and then diminishes, except north. . Heavy precipitation moves into northern New York and northern New England, and southern Ontario and Quebec. These areas will turn colder and there is a risk of heavy icing in some of these areas. Another day of record warmth is likely along the immediate East Coast.

Lets look at the next few days in Vermont:

Today: Snow showers with a cold front. Sharply falling temperatures this afternoon with the snow showers could cause a flash freeze on roads.

Thursday: Quiet and cold.  Lows a few degrees either side of zero, highs in the teens. At night, south winds start blowing, becoming strong in the Champlain Valley.

Friday: Windy and warm, with patchy light rain. A little ice possible east of the Greens in the morning.

Saturday: Now we're getting into the meat of the storm.  It'll be warm, unless the cold front comes in sooner than forecast. A few record highs possible. Rain is likely, especially north.  Turning sharply colder, especially north and west Saturday night with possible mixed precipitation.

Sunday: A wild card, with a complex thermal profile and questions about the position of cold air. There's a risk of significant, damaging icing, especially north. If it's a little warmer than expected, rain could be heavy enough to produce flooding. If it's a little colder than now expected, more snow would work into northern areas.

Overall, it looks like one to two inches of rain and/or melted snow and ice will come down northern Vermont Sunday. That's a lot for January. Somewhat lesser amounts of precipitation will probably hit southern Vermont.

The bottom line is, we don't know exactly what will be falling from the sky Sunday, but I'd consider postponing travel. And pay attention to those iee forecasts. If we got a lot of ice, we could lose quite a few trees and power lines.  If the forecasts for ice become more certain, stock up on supplies during the warmer weather Saturday morning and afternoon.

Heads Up: Dangerous Storm Eastern U.S. This Weekend. Vermont Effects Included

Precipitation forecast map for th next seven days. Most of the
precipitation you see is with the forecast big stom this weekend.
Purple shades, as in over Vermont, depict about 1.5 inches of
rain or melted snow and ice. That huge area of bright
red is two to seven inches of rain, so you
see a big area that's under a flood risk. 

I usually don't like to hype storms too far in advance. As most of us know, computer models more than a few days out can be unreliable.

This time, though, I'm going into hype mode, at least to an extent. The computer models have been consistent in saying some rough weather is due in the eastern half of the nation Friday through Sunday.

It's rare to see the Storm Prediction Center highlighting a risk for tornadoes and severe storms five or six days in advance.

But that's what they're saying about a zone from eastern Texas and across the Gulf Coast states Friday and Saturday with this system.

The devil is always in the details, so we won't know how extensive this severe outbreak will actually turn out to be. But there is the risk, at least of some pretty significant tornadoes and high winds across the South Friday and Saturday.

Likewise, this storm is going to have a LOT of moisture to work with.  Parts of the South, and Tennesee and Ohio valleys have been quite wet of late, and early predictions are already touting two to six inches of rain with this system in that region.  Some flooding is already ongoing, so it will only get worse this weekend. 

This storm will likely get some of its power from a very strong Bermuda-high like ridge of high pressure off the East Coast.  That will probably create some record high temperatures in the coming days along the Eastern Seaboard.

The arrangement of that ridge of high pressure will bring quite a lot of moisture inland off the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, a strong dip in the jet stream, and a strong jet stream aloft, will provide plenty of energy and instability for heavy rain, thunderstorms and possible southern tornadoes. And winter cold air from the west will just add a clash of air masses to wring the heavy precipitation as the system heads northeastward.

You'll very likely hear about this storm in the news in the upcoming days and through the weekend. Unfortunately, it could easily prove deadly and destructive in the South.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The storm will inevitably head northeastward into New England. For us here in Vermont, something nasty looks like a near certainty over the weekend, but what form that nastiness would take is still anybody's guess at this point.

We know there's a good potential for precipitation to be heavy.  Perhaps one to two inches of liquid equivalent, which is a good thumping for mid-winter, which tends to be drier.

But will it rain? Snow? Freezing rain? Locusts?  All of the above?  For now, I'm going with all of the above, except for the locusts. I'm pretty sure we won't get locusts.

We won't know exactly what will happen until nearly the last minute. But I'd start planning for difficult travel on Sunday.

We could easily have another messy ice deal like we did back on December 30, though the precipitation this time looks like it might be heavier.

It all depends upon when cold air from the northwest plays out.

Here's how the National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks it'll play out.  Remember, results may vary, and forecasts will change. Stay tuned for updates.

We'll start out with a brief shot of Arctic air Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Thursday will be the first colder than normal day around Vermont since December 21.  Lows will be near zero, with highs in the teens to near 20.

Yeah, that's cold, but no great shakes for a Vermont January day.

Then the fun starts. Temperatures will start rising Thursday night as winds pick up from the south.  A piece of the storm will draw a warm front through, causing some light mixed precipitation going over to some light rain Friday.

The real problem Thursday night and Friday will be strong winds, created by the contrast between that vigorous ridge off the East Coast and storminess to the west.

It'll continue to warm up Friday into Saturday, but how warm it gets depends upon when a cold front arrives. Could be record warm, could be just kinda warm. We'll see.

Here's where it gets really complicated. Chilly high pressure will come across the northern Great Lakes and into Ontario and southern Quebec. That would feed cold air in the lower levels of the atmosphere towards us here in Vermont.

Meanwhile, warm, wet air will glide northward up above that chilly air.

How cold will it get and how far south will the chilly air make it?  If the answer is very little and it stays warm, we'd get a lot of rain and we'd have a flooding risk.

If mostly low level cold air comes in but it stays warm aloft, that sets us up for a bunch of freezing rain and sleet.

If the cold air blasts in, we get a lot of snow.

Take your pick, because nobody is yet sure which scenario would play out, and where in Vermont different types of precipitation sets up.

Here's a worst case scenario for you, though. In their forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington compares the overall weather setup this weekend to March 6-7, 2011.

On that occasion, we got a bunch of rain and melting snow, which led to some flooding. Then, the colder air came in, changing rain to snow, especially across the north. There was a LOT of snow with that March, 2011 storm. 

Burlington got 25.8 inches of snow, which was up until that time the greatest March snowstorm on record. (Later usurped by the Pi Day Blizzard of March 14, 2017).

Most of northern Vermont got around two feet of snow in that 2011 event.

I'm not saying history will repeat itself this weekend. I'm guessing it won't. But as I said at the start, this is a head's up.