Tropical Storm Fay Is Vermont's Friend

Vermont is rarely hit by any kind of tropical system.

Visible satellite photo showing Tropical Storm Fay
moving northward just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. 

But when the Green Mountain State is hit by a tropical storm or depression or hurricane, it's pretty much always had news.

In the topsy-turvy year of 2020, though, Tropical Storm Fay, on balance, looks like it will help Vermont much more than it will hurt.

Since Fay is a tropical storm, which are always very wet and windy, the storm will be bad news for some people, though.

WHERE IT'S AT AND GOING

As of 8 a.m this morning, Tropical Storm Fay had top winds of 50 mph, mostly east of its center.It was about 100 miles or so south of the southern tip of New Jersey.

Tropical Storm Fay was northbound as of early this morning, and will continue in that direction as it picks up forward speed. It'll scrape past New Jersey, possibly even making landfall there.  If not, it will come ashore not far from New York City tonight

At this point, forecasts take Tropical Storm Fay up the Hudson River Valley into either eastern New York or western Vermont.  The official 5 a.m. Friday National Hurricane Center forecast track had Fay pretty much sitting right over my house in St. Albans, Vermont at around 2 p.m. Saturday. It will then head into Quebec.

I'm delighted this could happen. So are my gardens.  We welcome the prospect of a potential soaking.

Of course, by the time, Fay hits Vermont or nearby, it will have been downgraded to a tropical depression and it will be starting to transition to a non-tropical system.

If Fay is still at tropical storm strength by the time it hits Vermont, it will only be the fourth tropical storm known to have its center pass over somewhere in the Green Mountain State.

Two of those past tropical systems were devastating and deadly. Tropical Storm Irene killed at least six Vermonters and pretty much tied with 1927 as creating the worst flood in the state's history.

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 also passed through Vermont, causing serious flooding and leveling tracts of forests with its winds. The 1938 storm decimated the maple sugar industry for years afterward.

FAY IS NOT MEAN LIKE THE OTHERS

Fay's effects will be far, far, less serious in Vermont than Irene or the 1938 storm.

Here's why:

1. It's weak, so doesn't have the power to unleash widespread torrential rains or damaging winds.  Wind gusts for almost all of us should stay below 35 mph. A few favored areas, perhaps including some of the western slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts as high as 45 mph.

2. It's fast. Fay will be rocketing northward and will only affect directly affect Vermont for several hours.  It might rain torrentially at times, but the rain won't last long enough to cause serious flooding. Some favored spots might get extra rain, causing local stream flooding, road washouts and urban flooding, but this is certainly no Irene.

3. Vermont is dry. Parts of the state are in a drought. That's why I'm liking Fay so much.  It could put a good dent in the dry conditions we have been having.

The thing I worry about most from Fay is not too much rain, but too little. Forecast tracks for Fay keep pushing it further west.  The heaviest rain with northbound tropical storms in the Northeast is to the west of their track.

If Fay goes up through New York State instead of through Vermont, we could miss out on the heaviest rain.   Right now, forecasts call for one to two inches of rain from Fay in Vermont, with locally higher amounts.

More rain and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday could offer additional help with the dry conditions.

Fay will also help break the heat somewhat.  We have one more hot day today, but the clouds and precipitation with Fay, and another disturbance approaching from the west, will encourage clouds, which will hold daytime temperatures down a little. It will still be miserably humid though, at least into Monday.

Some clouds from Fay will move northward across Vermont this afternoon, and those might actually temper the heat a little in southern  Vermont  It will still be blazing up north, though.

FAY'S EFFECTS ELSEWHERE

It isn't all fun and games with Tropical Storm Fay.  Closer to its landfall, Fay could easily dump enough rain to cause flooding. Flash flood watches are up for New Jersey, western Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, far eastern Pennslyvania  and the Hudson River Valley and surrounding areas from Saratoga Springs south to New York City.

Some of the downpours with Fay are pretty intense.  Ocean City, Maryland had about 1.5 inches of rain in one hour, and 2.75 inches within just two hours, for instance.

Winds along some coastal areas could gust to 55 mph. Coastal flooding is likely to be minor.

Tropical storms like Fay can spin up tornadoes, so some are possible later today and tonight in and near Long Island, New York parts of far southern New England, the  New York City metro area and coastal New Jersey.

Cape Town, South Africa Rejoices In Flash Floods; U.S., Not So Much

Reservoirs near Cape Town, South Africa are beginning to refill with
recent heavy rains, meaning a water crisis is at least temporarily averted.

For the third time this month, a major cold front smasing  into the area around Cape Town, South Africa, promising heavy rain and gusty winds.

Sounds miserable, especially after a rather wet and gloomy May, but a lot of people in and around Cape Town are delighted with the stormy weather.

CAPE TOWN RELIEF

When last we left Cape Town in this here blog thingy, the major city in South Africa was about to run out of water.

Sometime this spring, (which is autumn in the southern hemisphere, where Cape Town is) the city of about 3.7 million would run out of water due to a long, punishing drought. The plan was to haul in water from elsewhere, and give everyone a measly 25 liters per person every day at distribution sites, which is logistically very tricky. And 25 liters isn't really much water for a person's needs.

Thank goodness the rains came. Cape Town is by no means out of the woods, but reservoirs have partly refilled with the recent rains. And more precipitation is forecast this week. Again, it won't solve all the problems there, but it's a good start. Disaster has been averted for now.

Some of the storms have been heavy enough to produce some flash flooding in and are Cape Town this month. But given the apocalyptic warnings of no water this year, it seems people there are accepting the local bouts of high water on city streets.

UNITED STATES FLASH FLOODS

As usual back here in the United States, summer storms have created some pretty nasty flash floods in the past couple of days. Ground zero so far seems to be northern Minnesota, parts of Wisconsin and pieces of northwestern Michigan.

Two to 12 inches of rain fell in much of northern Wisconsin since yesterday, and flash flooding was widespread. Major highways in the region are washed out, says Minnesota Public Radio, and flash flood emergencies were in effect this morning.

Highway 23 in Minnesota was washed away by flash flooding last night. 

Thing are still ominous out there today. As of early afternoon, the flash flood region in Minnesota and Wisconsin was under a tornado watch. The storms that could cause those tornadoes will also likely unleash more heavy rain, so more flooding is still a big risk.

VERMONT STORMS?

Monday could be an interesting day in parts of Vermont with the risk of strong storms, and despite the recent very dry conditions, the slight possibility of flash floods exists around here, too.

You might have noticed this Sunday afternoon it's gotten pretty damn hot, with temperatures well into the 80s in many spots in Vermont by 1 p.m. The humidity isn't too bad -- yet.

But the humidity will dramatically increase later today and tonight, and as I mentioned yesterday, water in the atmosphere will be at near record highs across Vermont Monday.

Meanwhile, a cold front is sagging south from Canada. Before it arrives, Monday will become a miserable day, with afternoon temperatures approaching 90. That'll be combined with unbearable humidity levels.

The humidity and the approaching cold front will trigger plenty of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A few could be severe. The biggest threat is from local microbursts. Individual microbursts rarely affect an area more than a couple miles in circumference, but they are very dangerous. 

They come when strong updrafts in a thunderstorm keep lots and lots of rain and hail suspended in the atmosphere. Then the thunderstorm loses the updraft and all that rain and hail comes crashing down to Earth in a giant gust of wind, blinding rain and hail. Microbursts can cause lots of damage, because the winds are so strong and the incredible amount of rain that can accompany them sometimes create flash floods.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma currently has all of Vermont in a slight risk zone for severe storms on Monday.

Forecasters also have us in a slight risk zone for flash flooding. As noted, it has been dry, so it would take lots of rain to cause a flash flood. There's no chance that there will be widespread flooding in Vermont with the expected downpours on Monday. There is a big however, however.

If a few torrential storms go over the same area, a couple local towns could get some dangerous flash floods along small streams, creeks, ditches and what not.

As a result, NOAA has northern New England and northern New York, including all of Vermont in a slight risk zone for flash flooding on Monday. 

We'll have updates to this on Monday morning.

"Super Bloom" Is A Glorious End Product Of Generous California Rains

As I've written about this winter frequently, California finally had a wet winter after years of drought.

Although there was a lot of damage from floods, mudslides and the like, a multi-year punishing drought has largely be erased, although not completely in southern California.

California deserts are not exactly places you go if you want to see multitudes of flowers. Except at the tail end of a wet winter.

Seeds left behind by plants in previous years finally got a chance to sprout with this winter's rain, and the result has been a breathtaking explosion of color in the normally beige deserts.

The bloom has been so intense that there was a big traffic jam on Interstate 15 near Lake Elsinore as people stopped to take in the beauty and snap pictures, according to the Press-Enterprise in Riverside, California.

Photos of the bloom in this post are by Watchara Phomicinda of the Press-Enterprise.

Of course, stopping on Interstate highways is discouraged and illegal except in emergencies, but something this beautiful almost qualifies as an emergency.

Some of the flower seeds probably lay dormant in the desert for years or even decades. Heavy rains will wash off a protective covering on the seeds, prompting them to germinate and bloom.

Riverside, California City Manager Grant Yates told the Press-Enterprise, "With the drought, we haven't seen that (wildflower bloom) for many years."

Pretty much nobody in Riverside was complaining about the beauty, or the influx of tourists spending money in the town.

Western Rainy Season Starts Off With A Bang, Which Is Great News For Drought

Expected precipitation for the next seven days shows some rain
for most of California, with heavy rain in the northern
part of the state. Good rains - over an inch of it -
are likely in the Northeast, too, where it is needed. 

The West Coast rainy season has started out strong, which is a good thing because most of the region has been experiencing drought.

Drought or abnormally dry conditions that developed in Washington and Oregon over the summer have pretty much been all erased by a series of very wet Pacific storms that have crashed ashore in the past couple of weeks, and more is coming.  

The change in Washington State has been dramatic.

The U.S. Drought Monitor said 84 percent of that state was abnormally dry or in drought on Oct 11. As of October 18, only a little less than 8 percent of Washington State was abnormally dry, and as noted, more rain is coming.

Drought-weary California is getting into the act, too, but nobody is under the illusion the drought there will be erased any time soon.

Except in the northwest corner of California that is. In nearly 8 percent of the state, all in the northwest corner, the drought is over, says the U.S. Drought Monitor. That isn't much of California, but it's the most real estate in California that is drought-free since March, 2013.

Most of California is still in drought, with extreme
drought in central areas. But recent rains have been
slightly eroding the scope of the drought.  

Coastal northwestern California is in for a lot more rain this week, too. Maybe a foot of it in some places, which could lead to local floods and mudslides.

Some rain will likely extend all the way south in California almost to San Diego this week.

There won't be all that much rain south of San Francisco, but it will rain, and anything is welcome, especially in central California, which is still under extreme drought.

There's no way to tell if this good start to California's rainy season will extend through the winter. (Some indications are it won't)  

So there's no reason yet to celebrate the end of California's long, punishing drought, but every raindrop that falls, every snowflake that comes down in the state's higher elevations, is a gift.

Keep it coming.

Meanwhile, in the Northeast, which got some good drought denting rains and snows over the weekend, we're still expecting a fairly wet storm later Thursday and Friday, which will only help some more.

Dallas Is The Latest Southern Plains City To Drown

Ellen Bryan of NBC Dallas/Fort Worth Tweeted
images of flooded cars on Dallas area freeways early today.  

The Oklahoma City metro got hammered by flooding earlier this month. Houston metro got it big time last weekend.

Today, it's Dallas and environs that are totally underwater.

Three to seven inches of rain swamped the already soggy city overnight, and just before dawn, it was still raining hard.

In a rather dire flash flood warning, the National Weather Service in Dallas early this morning said, "significant and life threatening flash flooding is occuring near Duck Creek in Garland. Spring Creek and Howlett Creek are also likely overflowing their bans. 

"This is a flash flood emergency for the area from Garland to Allen. Flash flooding is occuring with numerous roads now dangerous and impassable. Multiple high water rescues are occurring. Trave has become impossible  in many areas."

The Dallas Morning News was blogging about an unfolding scene of chaos in North Texas early Friday. Dallas Fire and Rescue was pullling people from cars stuck in flooded roads. Television station WFAA said an apartment complex was being evacuated with water in first floor apartments. White Rock Creek was about to experience a record high flood crest.

Major flooding is now forecast along the Trinity River, the biggest waterway in the Dallas area. It crested at 40 feet the other day, just barely at major flood stage, and is now expected to go to 43 feet. The last time it was at 42 feet was in 1991,

The heavy rain causing the flooding is expected to crawl into eastern Texas today, causing more flooding there.

I'm sure there will be many more updates to this story later today on the news.

The rain is forecast to become somewhat lighter and spottier in the southern Plains over the next few days, but there's still the risk of heavy downpours and more flash flooding in what has been easily the wettest month on record for the region.