Today Is Peak Of Hurricane Season. This Year, It REALLY Is

Today's satellite snapshot of Hurricane Florence depicts a
menacing, strengthening, dangerous storm. 

Today, September 10, is often regarded as the exact peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. If you're going to have hurricanes, this is the date they are probably most likely.

This year, today, we've got three of them: Florence, Helene and Isaac. All full-fledged hurricanes.

Obviously, Florence is the one everybody really has their eyes on because it's such a threat to the East Coast. But we'll break things down one by one.

I'll get into Florence in a minute, but first, some more local weather for today:

EX-GORDON

The remains of Tropical Storm Gordon remain embedded in a storm system that was around Pennslyvania this morning. Much of that state is under flood warnings due to the heavy rain with this system. It's been a terrible summer in Pennsylvania. Every time I turn around, there's another flood there.

One example: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania has had about 47 inches of rain so far this year. That's about 19 inches more than they should have had by now.

Luckily for Pennsylvania, Ex-Gordon should start to move out of Pennsylvania later today. Luckily for us Vermonters, Ex-Gordon still looks like it's going to hit us later today and tonight.

We so desperately need the rain, and this will be a good one. Instead of short, sharp bursts of torrential rain we've had in scattered thunderstorms all summer, this storm will involve at least 12 consecutive hours of steady light to moderate rain.

That's the kind of rain that soaks into the ground nicely. Most of us here in Vermont can expect one to two inches of rain, with locally more in southern Vermont.

Enjoy the rain while you can. Despite this storm, we're still in the overall pattern we've had all summer, with a high pressure ridge in the upper atmosphere near or over us. After the rain tapers off Tuesday morning, expect no more precipitation at least through Sunday.

FLORENCE MENACES

Hurricane Florence, as expected, was rapidly intensifying this morning. Top sustained winds were at 105 mph early this morning, but those are expected to go up to a terrifying 150 mph by Wednesday.

The expected path of Florence hasn't changed much since yesterday, and at the moment, North Carolina seems to be in Florence's crosshairs. The path could still shift to the north or south before we get to Thursday, when the hurricane is expected to make landfall.

Most forecasters expect Florence to still be a major, dangerous hurricane by the time it reaches North Carolina or thereabouts. There is a chance strong upper level winds could weaken Florence just before it reaches shore, but that won't matter much.

Sure, weakening, if it happens, will reduce wind damage somewhat. But the principal threat from Florence, and any other landfalling hurricane for that matter, is a coastal storm surge and inland flooding.

Weakening might or might not happen, but either way, coastal areas will see severe storm surges. Florence is also still expected to slow down or stall once it gets inland a bit, which will trigger massive amounts of rain with potentially catastrophic flooding.

People in the Carolinas are already preparing for this mess, as well they should be. Things are not looking good.

HURRICANE HELENE

Helene is expected to be comparatively well behaved. It's way out over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, with top winds of about 85 mph. Happily, Helene is expected to turn toward due north, far away from any major land areas. Once it goes north Helene will weaken and die by next week over colder North Atlantic waters. Buh-bye!

WILDCARD ISAAC

Hurricane Isaac, with top winds of 75 mph, is expected to strengthen, at least temporarily as it heads due west toward the Lesser Antilles islands and eventually the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters are prett confident that Isaac will keep heading nearl due west, but nobody can agree on whether it will strengthen or weaken, or when any of those trends might happen.

Isaac is small in size, so it's prone to rapid changes in intensity. Many computer models have it weakening to a tropical storm once it's in the Caribbean. Other models turn it into a monster. We'll see how that goes.

On top of all this, Hurricane Olivia is still threatening Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean. And a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico might or might not develop into something in the coming days.