Sunday, September 9, 2018

Quick Update: Brief New England Chill; Big Florence Menace

Deep blue skies over St. Albans, Vermont this morning, a hallmark of
a chilly September morning. 
As expected, it got cold early this Sunday morning in the North Country.

Saranac Lake, New York, as usual, seemed to be the cold spot with a low of 26 degrees. Several spots in northern Vermont dropped below freezing, and this wasn't just limited to the Northeast Kingdom frost hollows.

For instance, Morrisville got down to 31 degrees. ropped to or below freezing, so it was frosty in some places. Montpelier came close to freezing with a low of 35 degrees.

The 42 degrees at Burlington, Vermont this morning was the chilliest reading since May 21. All this isn't too unusual for second week of September. The record low for Burlington this morning was 37 degrees, so we weren't too far off. But this kind of thing happens from time to time.

We have two more days of cool weather to go, but no more frost pockets. Today will get into the 60s - similar to yesterday. You'll notice high clouds increasing during the day, too as a storm system that contains the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon moves towards us.

Monday will be breezy and raw, but it will be worth it as rains from that storm move in. High temperatures will only be in the 58 to 65 degree range for most of us. Again, not all that odd for September, but we're still not used to it.

That storm looks like it will drop perhaps 0,75 to 1.50 inches of rain on most of us. That rain is badly needed and we'll take what we can get. There will be a few locations that will lose out and get less rain, and other areas that will be big winners, with two or more inches of rain.

Starting Tuesday, we're in for a long period of warmer than normal temperatures, but it won't be the 0 degree heat and terrible humidity we had last week.

FLORENCE A BIG MENACE

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Florence early this morning
show a much better organized storm with a developing eye.
This photo likely represents the beginning stage of
a rapid intensification. 
Once a tropical storm gets into an environment where it can develop quickly, it often takes a day or so to get its act together.

Tropical Storm Florence, weakened and disorganized by strong upper level winds late last week, has spent the past 24 hours getting its act together before it could strengthen much.

Since yesterday, the storm has gotten more symmetrical, with dense clouds concentrated more toward its center. 

Which means it's now ready to explode into a monster. Satellite photos of the storm taken during Sunday morning indicate Florence is now beginning that rapid intensification.

The National Hurricane Center will very likely upgrade Florence back to a hurricane by late this morning.

Florence still appears to be a terrible threat to the southeastern United States by Friday. It looks like it will make landfall, possibly around North Carolina late Thursday or early Friday. This forecast could change, as hurricanes are unpredictable and Florence has been particularly so.
Current projects for the path of Florence. It's important to note this
is NOT a final forecast and its path could change

Of course, the strong winds of a major hurricane like Florence is expected to be are extremely destructive.  But the worst of such winds cover a relatively small area, perhaps a stripe that's 50 to 100 miles wide that goes inland for a few dozen miles.

Awful, yes. But this might not be the worst aspect of Florence.

Some computer models suggest might stall around North Carolina or Virginia for several days.

That scenario would dump a few FEET of rain on the area, and lead to the catastrophic flooding. This idea of Florence stalling is comparable to Hurricane Harvey last year, which stalled in Texas and giving that area some of its worst flooding in history.

This stall might or might not happen, but it's certainly something to watch.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Helene way out in the eastern Atlantic looks destined to stay well out to sea. Tropical Storm Isaac, however, is a potentially scary hurricane threat to the Caribbean.

No comments:

Post a Comment