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| The sky looked volatile enough over South Burlington, Vermont on Wednesday but the expected severe thunderstorms never developed This post explains why the forecast was wrong and why you should be happy it was. |
Most forecasters and weather weenies and pundits, including yours truely, warned everyone that Vermont and surrounding areas were in for some severe weather on Wednesday.
Oh, we were going to have thunderstorms with strong damaging wind gusts! There was even the possibility of a tornado! WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!!!!!!!
And then, we got........rain.
Yep, rain. Just a September downpour for a lot of us.
Oh, sure, it rained really hard under some of those showers. Winds did gust to a whopping 30-35 mph in a few spots. But this was nothing compared to some of our dire forecasts.
Here's what went wrong: A lot of the ingredients were there for severe weather. There were strong winds just a few thousand feet above us. Winds changed in direction and speed with height. That's a recipe of severe storms.
One thing that turned out to be especially crucial for severe storms on Wednesday proved to lack, big time. That was sunshine.
Sunshine would have heated the lower levels of the atmosphere a lot more than they were heated Wednesday. That would have created some nice updrafts. Those updrafts would have grabbed some of those high winds a few thousand feet above us and brought them to the surface as damaging gusts.
The instability created by sunshine would have allowed thunderstorms to hold together. To give them time to strengthen and start rotating. A rotating storm has the potential to create tornadoes.
Everybody knew in advance there wouldn't be much sun, but the figuring was there would be enough. But the situation called for more breaks in the clouds than what forecasters thought would be sufficient.
The clouds won. There was precious little sunshine anywhere in and near Vermont on Wednesday. The overcast was persistent. That limited the instability.
The dynamic atmosphere, combined with high humidity, was certainly able to generate lots of showers. Several lines of them passed through Vermont. There were many downpours. Just not the excitement many were expecting.
The closest thing to Vermont with any damage of note was a single tree that toppled over in Saratoga Springs, New York. Yawn.
You might be mad at forecasters for what you might think was over-hyping the situation. But these things happen. Meteorology is still inexact. Scientists don't know everything that goes on with the atmosphere. Weather forecasts have gotten better in recent years, but meteorologists still don't at 1,000 when it comes to predictions.
And now I'm going to turn the tables and lecture you.
You should be happy there was no severe weather. You should be happy there were all kinds of downpours. We needed it. Did you really want people to suffer property damage? That this kind of thing didn't happen is a good thing.
Northern Vermont continues to be in a drought. Yes, we had some beneficial rains last Friday. But dig a couple inches into the ground, as I did in my St. Albans yard Tuesday and you hit dust. These downpours were another chip in the armor of that drought.
More showers like Wednesday's over the course of the next several weeks would erase any drought conditions we might still have. Bless the rain!
Today, Thursday, it's back to autumn. The forecast is easier today, so I'm pretty sure it's accurate. First off: No severe weather. No rain to speak of. Just partly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures at pleasantly cool levels - in the low 60s. Skies will probably trend cloudier during the course of the afternoon. But there's nothing exciting in the forecast for today.
Be happy with that, too, my dears.
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