Monday, September 3, 2018

Gordon Now More Likely To Be A Hurricane

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Gordon getting stronger just off the east
coast of Florida this afternoon. It's a definite threat to the central Gulf
Coast and beyond 
In this morning's post, I speculated that Tropical Storm Gordon might end up being stronger than forecast.

It looks like that might well happen.

Gordon briefly developed an eye today, which is a bit ominous, but that well-organized core has since at least temporarily eroded, the National Hurricane Center tells us at their 5 p.m advisory.

Still, Gordon has otherwise been organizing nicely, so the NHC now thinks it will become a hurricane before making landfall. A hurricane warning is now up for the central Gulf Coast. 

Although Gordon probably won't be a blockbuster Gulf hurricane like Katrina or Harvey, it's still a force to be reckoned with, and taken seriously.

There could be a storm surge of three to five feet. At least a half foot of rain will fall on some areas with already saturated soils, so flooding is pretty much a sure bet.

The flooding looks like it will be a risk well past the time Gordon makes landfall and becomes just a remnant. Heavy rains seem like they will cause inundations along a stripe extending northwestward from southern Mississippi to Oklahoma in the coming week.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Florence is still way out over the central Atlantic Ocean, with highest sustained winds of 70 mph. That's a bit stronger than it was expected to be at this time. The added strength could actually be a good sign, as it might help make it turn north and stay away from the United States.

Florence is still expected to weaken temporarily over the next couple of days, but then regain some oomph later this week. It's still too soon to tell exactly what it will do, but it's not any kind of immediate threat.  People along the U.S. East Coast will still want to keep abreast with what Florence is doing, because it can still cause trouble. We'll see.

More disturbances are emerging from the west coast of Africa and some of these will have to be watched for eventual tropical development.

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