New Carolina Flooding Week After Florence; Severe Vermont Weather Wednesday?

Dead fish on Interstate 40 in North Carolina after water
receded off the roadway.

Hurricane Florence began to depart the Carolinas a week ago today, after spending a full weekend drenching the region in record rains.

It hasn't really rained in the Carolinas since, but water from Florence is still causing worsening flooding even today.

Some rivers in the Southeast drain slowly, so flood crests move downstream slowly.

So, up to 8,000 people in Georgetown County, South Carolina have been told to get out of their houses by today, as a flood crests from the Pee Dee and Waccama rivers approach.

The Pee Dee River has already caused destructive flooding upstream in North Carolina.

In North Carolina five rivers remain at major flood stage and several more are at least at moderate flood levels. Some water has receded near Wilmington, North Carolina, which had been cut off because flooding had submerged all routes into the city last week. That's the good news.

The bad news is the Cape Fear River is still rising, and could send floodwaters into downtown Wilmington, which had earlier largely escaped the worst of the flooding.

Parts of Interstates 95 and 40 remain closed, as do dozens of main state highways in North and South Carolina.

At last check the death toll from Florence was at 43. The Weather Channel says Moody's Analytics puts the damage total so far from Florence at about $44 billion, making this one of the top 10 costliest disasters in recent United States history.

Water receded from one stretch of Interstate 40, leaving parts of the highway littered with thousands of dead fish. The Penderlea, North Carolina Fire Department was called in to spray the dead fish off the highway with their hoses.

"Well, we can add 'washing fish off the interstate" to the long list of interesting things firefighters get to experience," the fire department said in a Facebook post.

VERMONT SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY?

The area in yellow could see severe thunderstorms Wednesday.
Note that Vermont is in this zone. 

It's becoming possible that severe thunderstorms could hit Vermont on Wednesday, along with a big chunk of the rest of the Northeast

We're enjoying tranquil autumn weather today with highs in the pleasantly cool low 60s (as opposed to the record 91 degree heat on this date last year.) The weather looks like it will get, um, interesting over the next couple of days.

First, a warm front will move across the region Tuesday. The good news with that is it will spread more showers across the area, which still needs more rain. Gusty winds will again get going in the Champlain Valley, but it won't be as harsh as it was on Friday.

After the warm front passes, we'll get into a zone of warm, humid air for this time of year. In the Champlain Valley,  highs could approach 80 degrees on Wednesday if the sun comes out enough, and it will feel sticky.

The amount of sun we get Wednesday will be one important factor on whether some thunderstorms that develop will turn severe.

A cold front will be approaching in an atmosphere with strong upper level winds and other conditions suitable for strong thunderstorms. If it remains overcast, the air will remain relatively stable and rambunctious thunderstorms will be few and far between.

If the sun comes out, the air will be more unstable, and the line of storms coming into Vermont from New York would be stronger. In any event, not everyone will get a severe storm Wednesday. But it's possible a few areas could get damaging wind gusts.

A lot can change between now and Wednesday. We'll want to wait and see if the timing of the cold front, and whether the atmosphere will be unstable enough for an outbreak of strong storms. We'll keep you posted.

Video: A fire department hoses dead fish off of Interstate 40 in North Carolina as flood waters recede, in that area, anyway:

Last Slap Of Florence Hits Hard; Fire Tornado Sucks Up Hose, Melts It

One of the damaging tornadoes in Virginia Monday,
part of the remains of Florence

The remains of Hurricane Florence still had quite a punch Monday, unleashing tornadoes on Virginia that killed at least one person.  

Dramatic video at the bottom of this post shows it ripping roofs off buildings and flinging the debris high into the air.

A flooring company warehouse collapsed on workers during the tornado in Chesterfield County, Virginia, killing one employee and injuring another. This brought the overall death toll from Florence so far to 32.

The very last gasp, or what we think is the last gasp, is in southern New England this morning, prompting flash flood warnings in southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts  flood advisories in far southern Vermont, and flood warnings in parts of New York.

The rain avoided parched northern Vermont, and only scattered light showers might fall today as a couple of cold fronts come through. Nothing heavy. but the unseasonably hot, humid weather is ending and we will get into a spell of cool autumn weather, with the exception of a brief warmup Friday.

It has stopped raining in North Carolina, but the flooding on some rivers is only just peaking, and it will take many days for all of them to recede so cleanup can start.

FIRE WHIRL SUCKS UP HOSE

A viral video making the rounds shows a "a fire tornado" during an August 19 wild fire in British Columbia sucking a fire hose up into the air. This video is also at the bottom of this post.

Firefighter M,C. Schidowsky wrote on Instagram: "Fire tornado destroyed our line. It threw burning logs across our guard for 45 minutes and pulled our hose 100 plus feet in the air before melting it. That's definitely a first."

Seems like fire tornadoes are now a thing, give the history with that one in California earlier this year that destroyed homes around Redding, California.

First, here's the tornado video from Virginia, after that will be the fire tornado/hose video.



Here's the fire tornado grabbing the hose:

Wilmington, North Carolina Cut Off By Florence Floods

People lined up outside one of the few open grocery stores in
Wilmington, North Carolina Sunday. Photo from NBC News

There is now no way to get in or out of Wilmington, North Carolina, at least on the roads.

All roads that lead to and from Wilmington, a city with a population of more than 117,000 are covered in flood water from ex-hurricane Florence.

I don't remember the last time a city was so marooned by a disaster. Maybe New Orleans in Hurricane Katrina?  Last year with Hurricane Harvey in Texas?

NBC News reports that few stores and restaurants are open in Wilmington and those that are have only limited supplies of food. On top of that, power is largely out, many of the streets that aren't flooded are a tangled mess of debris, fallen trees and wires. Many buildings have damaged roofs from the 90 mph winds Friday morning and are leaking as more rain falls.

At one supermarket, staff allowed only ten people at a time into the store to maintain order, NBC News said. There was a huge, long line out front. Scuffles broke out at another supermarket.

As you can see in such a big disaster, nerves get extremely frayed after days of dealing with this mess.

At least 17 people have died in the storm so far. Some videos of this storm's effects are at the bottom of this post.

To add to the misery the storm spun off some tornadoes. A television station in Wilmington had to go off the air for awhile as staff took shelter during a tornado warning. When they got back on the air, the roof was leaking.

Many rivers in North and South Carolina are at or near record levels. Even as the rain tapers off, it will take weeks in some cases for the water to recede. This is a long-haul disaster for sure.

Florence, or its remains lingered over the Carolinas all weekend, but it's finally starting to move. It will travel up the Appalachian chain and then head east over or near southern New England.

Flash flood watches are up for this path, although the rain won't be as heavy or nearly as prolonged as it was in North Carolina. Two to four inches of rain are likely in southern New England.

The remains of Florence will likely miss the northern half of Vermont. Southern Vermont will get some downpours.

This is all too bad. Southern Vermont doesn't really need the rain, but northern Vermont does. We can't catch a break, can we?  

On the bright side, the big burst of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic has subsided big time, at least for now.

Tropical Storm Joyce way out in the eastern Atlantic, has been downgraded to a depression and will probably dissipate. It is no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Isaac in the Caribbean dissipated and its remnant cluster of showers and thunderstorms was near Jamaica this morning. There's only a small chance that Isaac will redevelop.

ABC News gives us an aerial view of someo of the widespread flooding:



Interesting perspective from a guy who returned to his house for the first time after fleeing. About 12 to 16 inches of water got into the house. The man said he's lucky because they have a second floor and moved some of their possessions upstairs before the flood hit:



Here, the Coast Guard rescues about a dozen beagles from a flooded pen. They said had they got there just a bit later, the dogs would have drowned.

Florence Floods Worsen; Hong Kong Typhoon, Never Ending Dry Summer Here

Just one example of the destruction from Florence. 

They warned us last week that Hurricane Florence, and its remnants once it came ashore would unleash cataclysmic flooding, and anyone who glances at the news knows this came to pass.

Already, at least 12 deaths have been reported from the storm and flooding. We are only in the middle stages of this disaster, as the rain continues to pour down in North Carolina, parts of South Carolina and some of Virginia.

Many rivers are or will be at record high levels. Some of these rivers won't crest until sometimes next week. There's a lot more destruction to come.

In a tweet, the National Weather Service said late last night, "The worst flooding is yet to come for portions of the Carolinas, the southern/central Appalachians from western NC to west-central VA and eastern WV."

The downpours today have already spread inland to the Blue Ridge mountains in western North Carolina and adjacent Tennessee and Virginia. This raises the prospect of sudden, terrible flash floods and landslides.

There's a lot of concern about people living in deep valleys and hollows in those mountains that could be hit by these mudslides and floods.

This is a big enough disaster to have impacts far from the flood zone.  The cost of many items, from gasoline to pork is expected to go up for all of us. Deliveries, shipments and travel is delayed because so many major roads are under water. This includes what is normally extremely busy Interstate 95 in North Carolina.

A new North Carolina single-storm rainfall record has already been set, with more than 33 inches reported in Swansboro, North Carolina.

The remains of Florence will finally head northeast and out of the Carolinas early this week. It will likely cause some flooding from Pennsylvania to southern New England, but that flooding will be nothing like what's hitting the Carolinas.

TYPHOON MANGKHUT

As if Hurricane Florence and its flooding wasn't bad enough, Typhoon Mangkhut spread lots of death and destruction in the Philippines and Hong Kong. This is just a couple weeks after another typhoon caused widespread destruction in Japan.

Mangkhut is so far the strongest hurricane or typhoon on the planet this year, with gusts of 200 mph. (Hurricanes and typhoons are exactly the same thing as each other, just the names are different. )

About 50 people are confirmed dead in the Philippines, and that toll is very likely to rise. 

Videos from Hong Kong show people being violently blown against buildings, cranes falling off skyscrapers, high rises swaying ominiously in the wind, countless windows blown out of other high rises with stuff from inside these buildings being sucked out by the wind, and airborne debris racing past windows as frightened people watch.

All this with the eye of the typhoon passing roughly 60 miles to the south of Hong Kong.

Some of those incredible videos of this typhoon are at the bottom of this post that you have to watch.

VERMONT HEAT GRINDS ON FOR NOW

Today will be the 80th day this year that Burlington, Vermont has a high temperature of 80 degrees or more. That's close to the record for most days of such weather in one year. There were 86 days of 80 degree heat during 2016.

There will probably be another 80 degree high in Burlington tomorrow, but that's probably it for now.  There might or might not be more 80 degree days later this autumn, but the chances of that happening are falling fast.

Today will feel like midsummer with rather high humidity and temperatures well into the 80s. So much for September cool.

Northern Vermont still needs rain, and of course, the remains of Florence look like they will largely miss that area, so the drought goes on.

At least it will be cooler midweek in the wake of Florence. High temperatures will "only" be in the seasonable 60s.

Here's some of those videos from Hong Kong in Typhoon Mangkhut



This video also graphically illustrates the power of this typhoon:



I don't know what this adult and child were doing out in the typhoon, but it easily blew them away. Luckily, they were rescued:

Videos Show Chaos Continuin In The Carolinas As Florence Unleashes Torrents

A common scene in the Carolinas now as Florence continues to
dump feet of rain on the region.

The winds have largely diminished with what was Hurricane Florence in North and South Carolina ut the expected catastrophic rains are coming down.

Major flooding is reported in wide areas in the eastern halves of these states and it will only get worse today.

So far, seven deaths have been reported with Florence. More than a million people don't have electricity. There have been hundreds of water rescues ane many more will surely happen this weekend.

As of late last night, as much as 23 inches of rain had already fallen and it's still pouring today.

News clips and videos emerging from the hurricane zone are showing widespread destruction. I have a few to show, below. I'm sure even more dramatic flood videos will come out this weekend.

We'll start with this ABC News clip, which captures the wide-ranging chaos:



This Washington Post video of horribly flooded New Bern, North Carolina reminds me of the scene and response to Hurricane Harvey in Texas last year:



In this video, a light is still somehow on in a submerged house being slapped by waves in the North Carolina flood waters:



Early on in the storm, this gas station canopy in Topsail Beach, North Carolina topples in the wind. Then this heavy thing actually blows away! Watch:

Today Is Peak Of Hurricane Season. This Year, It REALLY Is

Today's satellite snapshot of Hurricane Florence depicts a
menacing, strengthening, dangerous storm. 

Today, September 10, is often regarded as the exact peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. If you're going to have hurricanes, this is the date they are probably most likely.

This year, today, we've got three of them: Florence, Helene and Isaac. All full-fledged hurricanes.

Obviously, Florence is the one everybody really has their eyes on because it's such a threat to the East Coast. But we'll break things down one by one.

I'll get into Florence in a minute, but first, some more local weather for today:

EX-GORDON

The remains of Tropical Storm Gordon remain embedded in a storm system that was around Pennslyvania this morning. Much of that state is under flood warnings due to the heavy rain with this system. It's been a terrible summer in Pennsylvania. Every time I turn around, there's another flood there.

One example: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania has had about 47 inches of rain so far this year. That's about 19 inches more than they should have had by now.

Luckily for Pennsylvania, Ex-Gordon should start to move out of Pennsylvania later today. Luckily for us Vermonters, Ex-Gordon still looks like it's going to hit us later today and tonight.

We so desperately need the rain, and this will be a good one. Instead of short, sharp bursts of torrential rain we've had in scattered thunderstorms all summer, this storm will involve at least 12 consecutive hours of steady light to moderate rain.

That's the kind of rain that soaks into the ground nicely. Most of us here in Vermont can expect one to two inches of rain, with locally more in southern Vermont.

Enjoy the rain while you can. Despite this storm, we're still in the overall pattern we've had all summer, with a high pressure ridge in the upper atmosphere near or over us. After the rain tapers off Tuesday morning, expect no more precipitation at least through Sunday.

FLORENCE MENACES

Hurricane Florence, as expected, was rapidly intensifying this morning. Top sustained winds were at 105 mph early this morning, but those are expected to go up to a terrifying 150 mph by Wednesday.

The expected path of Florence hasn't changed much since yesterday, and at the moment, North Carolina seems to be in Florence's crosshairs. The path could still shift to the north or south before we get to Thursday, when the hurricane is expected to make landfall.

Most forecasters expect Florence to still be a major, dangerous hurricane by the time it reaches North Carolina or thereabouts. There is a chance strong upper level winds could weaken Florence just before it reaches shore, but that won't matter much.

Sure, weakening, if it happens, will reduce wind damage somewhat. But the principal threat from Florence, and any other landfalling hurricane for that matter, is a coastal storm surge and inland flooding.

Weakening might or might not happen, but either way, coastal areas will see severe storm surges. Florence is also still expected to slow down or stall once it gets inland a bit, which will trigger massive amounts of rain with potentially catastrophic flooding.

People in the Carolinas are already preparing for this mess, as well they should be. Things are not looking good.

HURRICANE HELENE

Helene is expected to be comparatively well behaved. It's way out over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, with top winds of about 85 mph. Happily, Helene is expected to turn toward due north, far away from any major land areas. Once it goes north Helene will weaken and die by next week over colder North Atlantic waters. Buh-bye!

WILDCARD ISAAC

Hurricane Isaac, with top winds of 75 mph, is expected to strengthen, at least temporarily as it heads due west toward the Lesser Antilles islands and eventually the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters are prett confident that Isaac will keep heading nearl due west, but nobody can agree on whether it will strengthen or weaken, or when any of those trends might happen.

Isaac is small in size, so it's prone to rapid changes in intensity. Many computer models have it weakening to a tropical storm once it's in the Caribbean. Other models turn it into a monster. We'll see how that goes.

On top of all this, Hurricane Olivia is still threatening Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean. And a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico might or might not develop into something in the coming days.

Quick Update: Brief New England Chill; Big Florence Menace

Deep blue skies over St. Albans, Vermont this morning, a hallmark of
a chilly September morning. 

As expected, it got cold early this Sunday morning in the North Country.

Saranac Lake, New York, as usual, seemed to be the cold spot with a low of 26 degrees. Several spots in northern Vermont dropped below freezing, and this wasn't just limited to the Northeast Kingdom frost hollows.

For instance, Morrisville got down to 31 degrees. ropped to or below freezing, so it was frosty in some places. Montpelier came close to freezing with a low of 35 degrees.

The 42 degrees at Burlington, Vermont this morning was the chilliest reading since May 21. All this isn't too unusual for second week of September. The record low for Burlington this morning was 37 degrees, so we weren't too far off. But this kind of thing happens from time to time.

We have two more days of cool weather to go, but no more frost pockets. Today will get into the 60s - similar to yesterday. You'll notice high clouds increasing during the day, too as a storm system that contains the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon moves towards us.

Monday will be breezy and raw, but it will be worth it as rains from that storm move in. High temperatures will only be in the 58 to 65 degree range for most of us. Again, not all that odd for September, but we're still not used to it.

That storm looks like it will drop perhaps 0,75 to 1.50 inches of rain on most of us. That rain is badly needed and we'll take what we can get. There will be a few locations that will lose out and get less rain, and other areas that will be big winners, with two or more inches of rain.

Starting Tuesday, we're in for a long period of warmer than normal temperatures, but it won't be the 0 degree heat and terrible humidity we had last week.

FLORENCE A BIG MENACE

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Florence early this morning
show a much better organized storm with a developing eye.
This photo likely represents the beginning stage of
a rapid intensification. 

Once a tropical storm gets into an environment where it can develop quickly, it often takes a day or so to get its act together.

Tropical Storm Florence, weakened and disorganized by strong upper level winds late last week, has spent the past 24 hours getting its act together before it could strengthen much.

Since yesterday, the storm has gotten more symmetrical, with dense clouds concentrated more toward its center. 

Which means it's now ready to explode into a monster. Satellite photos of the storm taken during Sunday morning indicate Florence is now beginning that rapid intensification.

The National Hurricane Center will very likely upgrade Florence back to a hurricane by late this morning.

Florence still appears to be a terrible threat to the southeastern United States by Friday. It looks like it will make landfall, possibly around North Carolina late Thursday or early Friday. This forecast could change, as hurricanes are unpredictable and Florence has been particularly so.

Current projects for the path of Florence. It's important to note this
is NOT a final forecast and its path could change

Of course, the strong winds of a major hurricane like Florence is expected to be are extremely destructive.  But the worst of such winds cover a relatively small area, perhaps a stripe that's 50 to 100 miles wide that goes inland for a few dozen miles.

Awful, yes. But this might not be the worst aspect of Florence.

Some computer models suggest might stall around North Carolina or Virginia for several days.

That scenario would dump a few FEET of rain on the area, and lead to the catastrophic flooding. This idea of Florence stalling is comparable to Hurricane Harvey last year, which stalled in Texas and giving that area some of its worst flooding in history.

This stall might or might not happen, but it's certainly something to watch.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Helene way out in the eastern Atlantic looks destined to stay well out to sea. Tropical Storm Isaac, however, is a potentially scary hurricane threat to the Caribbean.

Florence And All Kinds Of Tropical Threats

Busy satellite map of the Atlantic. Click on the image to make it
bigger and easier to see. From left to right: Mass of clouds over
Midwest is former Tropical Storm Gordon The yellow X is
a disturbance that's not expected to amount to much. Then
we have Florence, then soon-to-be Tropical Storm Isaac,
then Tropical Storm Helene near the African coast. 

You'll have to forgive me, but this blog will be mostly about tropical storms and hurricanes for awhile as the peak of hurricane season has hit with a vengeance.

It was supposed to be a quiet year for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, but for the time being, it's most certainly not.

There's all kinds of things to talk about. The eastern Pacific Ocean is a mess, too, with tropical storms and hurricanes buzzing around.

So let's get to it with our Saturday update:

EX-TROPICAL STORM GORDON

As I expected, the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon is causing a LOT more trouble than it did when it was an actual tropical storm along the Gulf Coast several days ago.

The former Gordon is dumping horrible amounts of rain in the Midwest, and this trend will continue big time today. A weather front associated with ex-Gordon is spreading downpours into the already soggy Middle Atlantic states too. This is bad, because that could be setting the stage for cataclysmic flooding if Hurricane Florence comes along later next week. (More on that in a minute.)

There's a high risk of flooding in parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio today, which is the top level alert put out by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center when it assesses flood risks.

Four to eight inches of rain is expected today in much of this region, which has had repeated bouts of downpours over the past few weeks. Flooding is basically inevitable, and it could easily become severe and life threatening.

Gordon's flood threat will likely extend more into Ohio and Pennsylvania tomorrow. 

As noted yesterday, Ex-Gordon will actually be good for us here in Vermont. Forecasters are hopeful that it will dump one to two inches of rain on the drought landscape of central and northern Vermont Monday and Monday night.

The storm could also cause some gusty winds along the west slopes of the Green Mountains. That might cause a couple branches and maybe an isolated power failure or two, but with the rain, it will be worth it.

HURRICANE FLORENCE

As noted yesterday, high upper level winds did a number on Hurricane Florence, reducing it to a sloppy mess of a tropical storm with top winds of only 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Florence this morning. After being torn into a mess
 by upper level winds over the past couple of days, the storm
is now looking more symmetrical, a sign that it will soon
restrengthen, possibly rapidly. 

Those upper level winds are easing this morning, and Florence is definitely reviving, according to this morning's statement from the National Hurricane Center. 

Strong thunderstorms near the core of the storm are growing, and Florence is getting more organized again. It will almost certainly be a hurricane again by tomorrow.

Florence is heading westward into a zone with light upper level winds and hot ocean water. This is a perfect environment for hurricanes and Florence is expected to intensify quickly.

It could even achieve Category 5 status - the strongest and most dangerous hurricane type possible.

Which puts the East Coast in the United States in peril. Florence has certainly been unpredictable, but  at the moment, all guidance wants to push Florence toward the East Coast. It's still impossible to know whether it will plow ashore or curve to the north and miss the United States for a close miss.

If it does crash ashore, nobody is sure where. The first guess right now is somewhere near the Carolinas but that's iffy. If it does threaten the United States, it won't be until near the end of this coming week. Stay tuned on this one, because it has the potential to turn into another hurricane nightmare for the United States.

Even after its winds die down, the risk for torrential rains on saturated soil makes me too nervous to think about

By the way, nobody has any idea whether Florence will have any effects here in Vermont.

TROPICAL STORM HELENE

This time of year, disturbances come off the west coast of Africa and then move westward into the open Atlantic. Often, a few days after they leave Africa, these disturbances become tropical storms or hurricanes.

It's very rare that a disturbance will turn into a tropical storm almost immediately after leaving Africa, but Tropical Storm Helene has done just that. It's still only got winds of 45 mph, but Helene is expected to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane.

The good news is early indications are the Helene will curve to the north far out over the Atlantic Ocean and miss most populated areas.  Of course, we originally thought Florence would do that, so it's worth it to keep a watch on Helene.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE

Another disturbance moved off the west African Coast a few days ago and it's now getting its act together to the west of Helene. It's now called Tropical Depression Nine, but will soon be named Tropical Storm Isaac.

This one really bears watching. It's expected to move pretty much due west over the next five days and approach the Lesser Antilles Islands in about five to six days as a hurricane. From there, it's anybody's guess, but this one could threaten ultimately threaten places like Puerto Rico again. (ugh!) and possibly the mainland United States.

It's too soon to speculate, but this could be a worrisome one.  There is plenty of time for it to decide to miss land, so we don't have to panic over Isaac yet.

HURRICANE OLIVIA

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Olivia is spinning way out there with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph as of this morning. It's slowly weakening, but still could approach Hawaii early next week, so we'll have to watch that.

East Coast Should Start Watching, But Not Panicking Over Unpredictable Florence

Satellite map shows Florence in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean,
two strong disturbances that will become tropical storms in
the eastern Atlantic and the wet remains of Gordon
lurking over Arkansas. 

Hurricane Florence, now, temporarily Tropical Storm Florence, is one of those storms that make meteorologists bald from pulling out their hair so much.  

The storm, still in the central Atlantic Ocean, keeps surprising forecasters with its variable strength and uncertain direction.

Worse, the overall weather pattern over North America and the Atlantic Ocean is very strange, making forecasting all the more difficult.

This mess would just be an esoteric exercise for weather geeks except for one thing: Florence could cause real, scary trouble somewhere along the East Coast. Nobody is sure yet. So no panicking, please.

Also, definitely ignore the clickbait that's out there on social media that says The End Is Nigh.

It's not.

Instead, check out the National Hurricane Center or sane meteorologists you trust to get the best information on Florence. Or any other hurricane or storm for that matter.

Before you start panicking, remember: Florence is still way out over the central Atlantic and people have plenty of time to prepare. As the next few days go by, we'll have a clearer picture of whether Florence will score a devastating blow on the East Coast, or turn harmlessly out to sea, or do something between those two extremes.

WHAT TO DO NOW

It is the middle of hurricane season. Which means Florence is a great excuse for people everywhere along the East Coast to consider what they would do if threatened by a major hurricane.

Where would you go if told to evacuate? What stuff would you take with you if told to evacuate? How would you protect your home and/or business?  Where are your important papers and documents, and can you easily protect those? Are there copies of those documents in another safe space? What about the stuff you have saved on your computer? Is that stored in some sort of backup or the cloud?

What would you do with your pets? Do you have an emergency stash of nonperishable food and water if told to shelter in place? (Remember, stores will be closed and electricity will be out long after a bad hurricane has passed.)

If you need supplies for any future hurricane that comes along next week, this year, or next year or five years from now, this weekend is a great time to head down to Home Depot and the grocery store to get some of these items. Nobody's panicking now, so you'll be able to get in and out of these stores just fine, and what you're looking for will still be in stock.

So what about Florence?

WHAT FLORENCE IS DOING

The European compuer models seem to want to take Florence into
the Southeast or Middle Atlantic States. These potential tracks
are all various versions of the European. Note these are
NOT definitely predictions and more speculation.
Take this map with a big grain of salt. 

Florence, against all odds, rapidly strengthened into a major Category 4 storm a couple days ago, despite strong upper level winds that should have kept it in check.

Then those high level winds finally ripped into Florence over the past 24 hours and it has weakened into a tropical storm with top winds estimated at 65 mph, and I think that's generous. Florence looks pretty disorganized as of this morning.

Forecasters think the strong upper level winds peaked early this morning and will gradually relax as Florence heads generally westward. That means the storm will likely start strengthening again. On top of that, Florence is going to move over warmer water. The hotter the water, the more likely a hurricane will strengthen.

Nobody knows how much Florence will strengthen, and given its history, nobody dares make a precise guess.

The future path of Florence is even more tricky to figure out. A couple days ago, Florence was in a spot in the Atlantic Ocean that keeps hurricanes from the East Coast. Every prior hurricane that had been in that area in known history curved north and away from the East Coast.

But there's that weird weather pattern I talked about. It's pretty much the same one we had all summer, with a strong ridge of high pressure near or off the southeastern Canadian coast.

American computer models want to take Florence more
toward New England. Again, this is just one run
of a computer model with potential tracks and NOT an
official forecast. This map is basically
speculation at this point. 

That ridge will block Florence if tries to turn north. However, there will be occasional weaknesses in that otherwise strong high pressure to the north of Florence.

Those weakenesses just might allow Florence to turn north and miss the United States, or at least turn north soon enough so it stays just offshore, so the impacts wouldn't be quite so bad.

Other computer models smash Florence directly into the East Coast. If this happens, nobody is sure where.

Here's another problem: Ocean water temperatures off the East Coast, all the way past Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes, is near record warm.  Hurricanes heading north past the Mid-Atlantic states tend to start weakening because of the chilly ocean water.

If Florence heads north of say, Virginia, it has the potential to stay stronger longer because of the toasty water.

All this is still speculation, so we're just going to have to wait it out until forecasts become more clear.

REMEMBER GORDON?

You probably remember Tropical Storm Gordon a few days ago coming ashore along the northern Gulf Coast, causing some wind and flood damage.

Gordon's remains still lurk out there. It was sitting around Arkansas this morning spreading heavy rain around.  The ghost of Gordon is going to cause huge trouble today and over the weekend, with a serious potential for flooding in places like Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. These areas have gotten lots of rain in recent weeks. The soil is saturated, and heavy rains could easily cause flooding.

A huge area from Arkansas to Iowa to Ohio is under a flash flood watch today. Atmospheric conditions will only make the chances for heavy rain increase later today and tonight, so this could be bad.

The good news, at least for us Vermonters, is that a storm that contains the remains of Gordon is expected to come through Monday and early Tuesday. We have a shot of receiving the first widespread, steady rain in the Green Mountain State since at least June.

Since much of the state is in drought or abnormally dry conditions, this will help. Us Vermonters might be lucky in getting Gordon's silver lining.

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE

Two strong weather disturbances have moved westward off the African Coast and into the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricance Center says both disturbances are extremely likely to turn into tropical storms, and soon.

It's way, way too early to think about where those two storms will go. We have our hands full with Florence, so let's deal with that first.