Severe Storm Threat Definitely On Today In Vermont, Surrounding Areas

We here in Vermont are in the middle of a severe
thunderstorm risk today. Strong straight line winds are
the big

When I got up this morning and looks up at the clouds, they were screaming by, north to south. If Vermont State Police could catch them, they would issue speeding tickets for sure.

Those speeding clouds are a sign that we are in for severe weather. I was looking up at something called a low level jet. It's essentially a package or river of fast moving air just a few thousand feet overhead.

Under the right conditions, thunderstorms can "grab" this high speed air and bringing to the surface in the form of very damaging wind gusts.

We have most of those right conditions today.

A cold front is approaching from the west. If you've been outside, you noticed it has turned humid again. And we have that low level jet.

The only thing missing is a lot of sunshine. That would destabilize the air even more, making severe thunderstorms more likely. Watch the skies between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. today: If there's a lot of sun, the severe thunderstorms goes up.

The main risk in today's storms is those strong, damaging wind gusts. Of course, not everybody will get that, but a few to several places probably will. The current thinking is the  thunderstorms coming in today will probably in the form of a broken line heading east.

Watch out in particular for sections of this line of storms that form something that looks like  a backwards "C" on radar. Those are called bowing echoes. The apex of the backwards "C" is an area that will be especially dangerous for destructive winds.

While not a high threat, there is a slight chance of a tornado or two. A tornado would be most likely if a storm forms ahead of the main line of rough weather and starts to rotate. We could get a supercell or two out of this, anywhere in eastern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and perhaps points south.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is giving us a
very slight, but non-zero chance of a couple
tornadoes today. 

Of course the chances of seeing a twister are low. Vermont and New Hampshire are in a 5 percent chance zone for a tornado. That means if you are in these two states, there's a 5 percent chance a tornado will touch down within 25 miles of you.

You see, a slim chance, but not a zero chance. Already, there were brief tornado warnings earlier this morning in western New York and western Pennsylvania.

By the way, southern Quebec, including Montreal is under the gun for all this potential severe weather, too. The Ottawa area, which saw devastating tornadoes last Friday, is under a much lesser threat today.

The biggest threat for severe storms today will be between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington,  ermont is thinking the main line of storms will form in northern New York between 1 and 3 p.m this afternoon, then reach the Champlain Valley around 4 p.m., give or take, then be out of Vermont and into New Hampshire by 8 p.m. or so.

If you've got lawn furniture and loose objects outside, I'd bring them inside or tie them down this morning in case strong thunderstorm winds hit.

If you have plans to go boating or hiking today, cancel those plans. Go tomorrow instead. The weather will be gorgeous by then. Trust me.

Also, today's the wrong day to park your car under an old, rotting tree.

There is a decent chance National Weather Service will issue a severe thunderstorm watch or even, possibly, a tornado watch later this morning or early this afternoon. That would be a signal to go about your business as usual, but keep your ear perked up for potential warnings.

If you get a severe thunderstorm warning, get inside a sturdy building and stay away from windows. (In a worse case scenario, flying debris in strong winds could break the glass.)  In the off chance you get a tornado warning, just go to the basement in a sturdy building. If there's no basement, get into an a room with no windows closest to the middle of the building.

Some of these storms will also have torrential, blinding rain. The storms will move fast and not linger over any one place for a long time. That means that there will be no substantial flooding. But the rain will be so intense that street flooding can occur in an instant. Drainage ditches and small streams could turn pretty wild pretty fast, too.

It all clears out this evening, and it's back to delightfully crisp, sunny fall weather Thursday.