Florence: Category 2 Hurricane But Category 5 Flood Threat

Today's satelllite view of Hurricane Florence

As of this morning, the winds in Hurricane Florence aren't quite as ferocious as originally expected, but nobody in the Carolinas or elsewhere should relax over this.

The catastrophic flood threat, always the real story with this hurricane, is just as bad or worse than it's been.

Upper level winds near the Florence have degraded the hurricane a bit, which explains why the winds have dropped to a still-formidable 110 mph. Little change in strength is expected before landfall tomorrow morning.

What Florence has lost in wind strength is has made up for in size. The hurricane is expanded, which means it can still generate very intense coastal storm surge. Strong, damaging winds will cover a wider area, too.

As of this morning, hurricane force winds extended outward some 80 miles from the center of Florence, and tropical storm force wind were as far as 195 miles from the storm center, says the National Hurricane Center.

All this means Hurricane Florence can still generate a storm surge of nine to 13 feet high along parts of the North Carolina coastline. Damaging storm surges are a big threat across the entire coastlines of South and North Carolina and southern Virginia.

The surges will be accompanied by huge, battering waves. An offshore wave that was 80 feet tall was detected with Florence yesterday. That's roughly the height of an eight-story building. As you can see, anyone who has not evacuated from areas under storm surge warnings are extremely foolish.

Before and after pictures after a storm surge from Hurricane Ike wrecked
parts of the Texas coastline on this date in 2008.
Hurricane Florence is a similar storm and might have similar effects. 

Florence reminds me of Hurricane Ike, which hit the Texas coast on this date in 2008. It, too, "weakened" to a Category 2 storm before landfall, but its size expanded very much like Florence has. The result was a terrible storm surge that washed away countless coastal homes and buildings in Texas.

Hurricane Ike killed 21 people in the United States. Some of those were people who ignored evacuation orders and drowned in the storm surge.   The coastline of Texas is flat, like North Carolina's. The Ike storm surge in Texas extended inland as far as 18 miles. 

So you see what we're up against.

Hurricane Florence has always been odd. It took a weird, unprecedented path toward the U.S. East Coast, it strengthened, weakened and strengthened again rapidly, and as it approaches the coast, it is expected to take a slow curve to the southwest, down the North Carolina coast toward South Carolina, then inland.

Meteorologist Marshall Shepherd, writing in Forbes said: "In my 27 years of professional experience, I have never seen some of the projected characteristics or behavior of Hurricane Florence."

The forward pace of Florene will be excruciatingly slow, much slower than most hurricanes, which is why everybody is so worried about the epic rainfall expected with this. If Florence moves slowly, as expected, it has time to dump record amounts of rain, which of course would produce record flooding.

Forecasts continue to call for two to three FEET of rain in southern North Carolina, especially around Wilmington, North Carolina. This downpour should start today, and anyone who lives near a river or any waterway should get out, pronto.

Some of the flooding will be made even worse because storm surges will block water from flowing out of channels and rivers with outlets to the sea. The water will just back up into  more and more neighborhoods.

I've seen it said on social media the Hurricane Florence is a Category 2 storm but a Category 5 flood threat. I certainly buy that.

The outer bands of Hurricane Florence were beginning to affect coastal North Carolina this morning. Conditions will keep going downhill all day today.

ATLANTIC BUSY, IN ADDITION TO FLORENCE

Lots of storms in addition to Florence to watch in the Atlantic

As if forecasters didn't have their hands full enough with Florence, the Atlantic Ocean is about as busy as it can possibly get in terms of tropical storms.

Including Florence, there are four tropical storms or hurricanes spinning out there, and a potential one in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Helene is weakening as it heads northward in the open Atlantic. It will become a gusty non-tropical storm that could hit Ireland in a few days.

Tropical Storm Isaac is heading into the Caribbean Sea and is remaining weak. It might even fall apart within the next few days. Still, some computer models suggest it might regenerate once it gets further west in a few days, so we'll have to keep an eye on it.

Subtropical Storm Joyce is expected to become a purely tropical storm in the central Atlantic Ocean within a couple days, but it poses no threat to land.

An area of showers and storms in the western Gulf of Mexico will likely hit land before it can develop into a tropical storm. However, it will spread heavy rains into northeastern Mexico and Texas, which raises a flood threat.