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| Strong winds today in the Champlain Valley will break a few branches, but it won't be anything like last year's epic October windstorm that caused widespread damage, including to this Milton, Vermont home. |
The warm front that is coming through Vermont this morning has a lot more oomph to it than I thought it would, and that's a great thing.
Rainfall, accompanied by a few lightning strikes and thunder booms, has been heavier than I anticipated.
Burlington, Vermont is up to more than a half inch of rain. Much of the rest of droughty northwest Vermont got similar amounts.
The rain will soon end as the warm front goes by. This afternoon, and evening, we're still under the gun for strong winds.
The wind advisory has been upgraded to a high wind warning in Grand Isle County, Vermont and elsewhere right along the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. Wind gusts between 2 and 8 p.m. today in this area could reach or exceed 60 mph, which would cause a fair number of power outages.
The previous wind advisory for the rest of the region remains on.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Hang on to your hat! Today in Vermont is going to be quite a windy one, especially if you're in the Champlain Valley.
It all started this morning with a warm front, which managed to bring some gusty winds and downpours to northern Vermont.
Which is OK, we needed the rain. The wind and downpours I encountered on the way to work this morning reminded me of a tropical storm, though of course today's weather has nothing to do with a tropical storm.
And if the rain hasn't tapered off and ended where you are, it will soon. .
The weather pattern almost every autumn features storms heading northeastward across the Great Lakes or up the St. Lawrence Valley of New York.
Once summer is over, low pressure systems tend to get stronger and you get wind.
If a storm goes to our west, the wind comes from the south, at least until the storm's cold front swings through. The Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, and the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, tend to channel these winds, and you get a lot of strong gusts as a result.
Today, we're going to get the first of these windstorms of the fall season.
A wind advisory is up for the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley. The peak of the wind will come this afternoon and evening, when gust on exposed areas right along Lake Champlain could reach 55 mph. Otherwise, gusts will reach the 45 to 50 mph range.
Winds were already increasing before dawn at my house in St. Albans, Vermont, but I'd say peak gusts at around 6 a.m. were only about 20 mph. The real show starts later.
The expected winds will be strong enough to take down some branches, maybe a couple of trees and some power lines. There will likely be power failures here and there this evening.
This type of wind storm, as I said, is pretty common in the Champlain Valley during the autumn and early winter. But the first ones of the season, like this one, tend to cause more problems than the later ones.
That's because right now, most of the leaves are still on the trees. Each leaf acts like a little sail, and the leaves tug harder on the branches in the wind than when the trees are leafless. You tug harder on a branch, and it's more likely to snap off.
Which means your lawn is more likely to be littered by twigs and branches by Saturday morning than it would if the same storm came through in November. Leafless trees don't have those little "sails" so the branches don't get tugged and broken as much later in the year.
Though I'm talking about scattered power failures and broken branches later today, this storm will not be nearly as bad as the epic wind storm that swept through toward the end of last October. Unlike last year's storm, I don't expect widespread, long lasting power outages. I don't imagine people's roof shingles will blow off and I don't expect zillions of trees to come down
But if you thinking of wearing that fancy, dancy but loose fitting hat, today is not your day.
You should also cancel any plans to be out on Lake Champlain today. With winds gusting to 55 mph and waves of five to seven feet tall, it's dangerous out there. Though I suspect some wind surfers might go out there anyway.
Some forecasters were toying with the idea of severe thunderstorms this evening as the storms's cold front comes in. It does seem as if there's a decent chance of severe weather, maybe eve a tornado or two in western New York later today.
But those storms will weaken after dark as they move into Vermont. Some of those weakening storms might have enough punch left to pull down some even stronger winds aloftt and bring them down to the surface tonight. Which means one or two spots could get a particularly strong gust as the showers come through.
These showers don't look all that impressive in terms of rainfall amounts, despite this morning's downpojurs, so there won't be much relief from the drought over northern Vermont. Southern Vermont is not in a drought and got additional rain the other day, so they're not in trouble.
The good news is it looks like we're falling, at least for now into a somewhat cooler and wetter weather pattern. While the drought won't instantly disappear in northern Vermont, there's hope that it will gradually wane over the next couple of months.
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