Severe Storm Threat Definitely On Today In Vermont, Surrounding Areas

We here in Vermont are in the middle of a severe
thunderstorm risk today. Strong straight line winds are
the big

When I got up this morning and looks up at the clouds, they were screaming by, north to south. If Vermont State Police could catch them, they would issue speeding tickets for sure.

Those speeding clouds are a sign that we are in for severe weather. I was looking up at something called a low level jet. It's essentially a package or river of fast moving air just a few thousand feet overhead.

Under the right conditions, thunderstorms can "grab" this high speed air and bringing to the surface in the form of very damaging wind gusts.

We have most of those right conditions today.

A cold front is approaching from the west. If you've been outside, you noticed it has turned humid again. And we have that low level jet.

The only thing missing is a lot of sunshine. That would destabilize the air even more, making severe thunderstorms more likely. Watch the skies between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. today: If there's a lot of sun, the severe thunderstorms goes up.

The main risk in today's storms is those strong, damaging wind gusts. Of course, not everybody will get that, but a few to several places probably will. The current thinking is the  thunderstorms coming in today will probably in the form of a broken line heading east.

Watch out in particular for sections of this line of storms that form something that looks like  a backwards "C" on radar. Those are called bowing echoes. The apex of the backwards "C" is an area that will be especially dangerous for destructive winds.

While not a high threat, there is a slight chance of a tornado or two. A tornado would be most likely if a storm forms ahead of the main line of rough weather and starts to rotate. We could get a supercell or two out of this, anywhere in eastern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and perhaps points south.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is giving us a
very slight, but non-zero chance of a couple
tornadoes today. 

Of course the chances of seeing a twister are low. Vermont and New Hampshire are in a 5 percent chance zone for a tornado. That means if you are in these two states, there's a 5 percent chance a tornado will touch down within 25 miles of you.

You see, a slim chance, but not a zero chance. Already, there were brief tornado warnings earlier this morning in western New York and western Pennsylvania.

By the way, southern Quebec, including Montreal is under the gun for all this potential severe weather, too. The Ottawa area, which saw devastating tornadoes last Friday, is under a much lesser threat today.

The biggest threat for severe storms today will be between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington,  ermont is thinking the main line of storms will form in northern New York between 1 and 3 p.m this afternoon, then reach the Champlain Valley around 4 p.m., give or take, then be out of Vermont and into New Hampshire by 8 p.m. or so.

If you've got lawn furniture and loose objects outside, I'd bring them inside or tie them down this morning in case strong thunderstorm winds hit.

If you have plans to go boating or hiking today, cancel those plans. Go tomorrow instead. The weather will be gorgeous by then. Trust me.

Also, today's the wrong day to park your car under an old, rotting tree.

There is a decent chance National Weather Service will issue a severe thunderstorm watch or even, possibly, a tornado watch later this morning or early this afternoon. That would be a signal to go about your business as usual, but keep your ear perked up for potential warnings.

If you get a severe thunderstorm warning, get inside a sturdy building and stay away from windows. (In a worse case scenario, flying debris in strong winds could break the glass.)  In the off chance you get a tornado warning, just go to the basement in a sturdy building. If there's no basement, get into an a room with no windows closest to the middle of the building.

Some of these storms will also have torrential, blinding rain. The storms will move fast and not linger over any one place for a long time. That means that there will be no substantial flooding. But the rain will be so intense that street flooding can occur in an instant. Drainage ditches and small streams could turn pretty wild pretty fast, too.

It all clears out this evening, and it's back to delightfully crisp, sunny fall weather Thursday.

No, The Tragic Missouri Duck Boat Storm Did NOT "Come Out Of Nowhere"

Duck boat sinking in a severe Missouri thunderstorm on
Thursday, killing 17 people.

Investigations are just starting on what led to the disaster near Branson, Missouri in which a duck boat sank in a severe thunderstorm, killing 17 people.

But there has been one very, very nagging question.  What was that rickety thing doing out there in such a bad storm?

Ripley Entertainment, owns Ride the Ducks company in Branson. Jim Pattison Jr, president of Ripley, told CBS News he'd been told that it was "an almost micro storm event.....It was a fast-moving storm that basically came out of nowhere...The storm was moving at a higher rate of speed than expected."

Sorry, Jim. I think what you're doing is trying to create a new reality to possibly influence a jury during the inevitable lawsuits that will come out of this tragedy. Meteorologists will talk about what really happened during the litigation, but I have to wonder if Pattison was trying to plant a seed of doubt into whoever will make rulings and decisions in the likely lawsuits.

Pattison did say that given the conditions, the boat should not have been in the water.

Still, as many in the media reported: No, the severe thunderstorm did NOT "come out of nowhere." It was moving fast, but meteorologists were tracking it and had a good handle on the timing of when it would hit. It was not a "micro storm." It was a pretty big and nasty thunderstorm complex.

Also, as the Kansas City Star reported, there were lots of warnings about the oncoming storm rushing in from the northwest.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted as of 11:30 a.m. Thursday, more than seven hours before the storm hit. A watch means keep an eye to the sky, as there's a good possibility of severe thunderstorms somewhere in the area. That means think twice about launching rickety duck boats, folks.

The complex of storms formed in Kansas, and reports of wind damage began coming in from eastern Kansas more than nine hours before the storm hit Table Rock Lake. National Weather Service meterologists closely tracked this thunderstorm complext during its entire lifespan.

Roughly an hour before the storms hit the Branson area, Springfield, Missouri, to the north, reported a wind gust of 74 mph.

The National Weather Service office in Springfield, Missouri issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 6:32 p.m for an area including Branson and Table Rock Lake, where the duck boat was.
The warning mentioned likely wind gusts in the 70 mph range were on their way.

It's still unclear exactly what time the duck boat departed from shore. It was scheduled to leave at around 5:30 p.m., according to a Weather Channel time line, but might have left as late as 6:45 p.m., says the Kansas City Star.

A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for an area just northwest of, but not including Table Rock Lake at 5:45 p.m., according to the Weather Channel time line.

Even if the duck boat left shore before the severe thunderstorm warning was issued, the operators should have known bad storms were looming to the north and northwest, Reports say the duck boat left the dock for the lake excursion as late as  around 6:45 p.m. Was anybody watching the weather? The sky? Did anyone associated with Ride the Ducks review weather radar or check for storm warnings?

They should have, that's for sure.  A lot of attention went to a tweet and Forbes article from Marshall Shepherd, the Director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia that stated what should have been the obvious:

"It is 2018, not 1901. The meteorological community has advanced weather satellites, weather radar and models. Storms like this do not 'come out of nowhere.'"

Shepherd, ever the polite, competent scientist, isn't nearly as nasty and rude as I am, but his Forbes article should be required reading for anyone planning on doing anything outside. At any time.

Shepherd also highlighted guidance developed by NOAA and the National Safe Boating Council. The guidance, again,  should be obvious to everyone, including people who conduct duck boat tours:

"Before going boating, fishing, diving or enjoying other water sports, check the forecast from weather.gov or your favorite weather source...If severe weather is predicted, stay home or go earlier than normal. Be prepared to head to shore quickly."

The guidance says you should have a NOAA weather radio with you which would sent immediate alerts if a storm warning is issued.

Shepherd, a former president of the American Meteorological Society, also highlighted a report from that organization in his Forbes article that basically says organizers of outdoor events and attractions don't really have an excuse when bad weather causes tragedies. Although the AMS puts it in much more sober terms than I am doing. Members of the AMS are a bunch of serious scientists, after all.

According to the AMS report:

"A common theme in the after-action reports and service assessments for these disasters is that the weather plan was inadequate to deal with a comprehensive portfolio of weather risk, or a weather plan didn't exist. In many instances, organizers simply 'hoped that we wouldn't get hit.'

Reducing the weather risk to life and property at venues and public gatherings is a priority for the weather enterprise and the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Knowledge of, and investment in, pre-event planning and mitigation serves the nation economically as well as socially."

In other words, my admittedly blunt, sarcastic words, careless event organizers really need to pay attention to weather hazards and stop killing people because they don't. It's not all about making money, you know.

Not all the facts are out yet in the Missouri Duck Boat tragedy, so it's hard to draw exact conclusions as to who is at fault and to what extent. But I believe there was a big time screwup, with awful results.

This is especially true given the vessel: Duck boats need calm water, and the canopies overhead tend to trap people when the vessels sink. That's probably what happened in Missouri.

The lesson learned: Always be cognizant of the weather if you're organizing an outdoor event. And if you plan on going to an outdoor concert, a duck boat excursion or anything else outside, bring along a weather radio. Adjust your plans if there are weather alerts.

And if your gut tells you the weather is too iffy to do what you planned to do, definitely trust your gut.  

Severe Storms, Wind, Downpours, Floods: Busy Vermont Spring Day Today

The area in orange, which includes most of Vermont and most of New
York, is at the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms and possible
tornadoes today. There's a risk, too, in the yellow areas.

UPDATE AS OF NOON: If anything, the chances of us here in Vermont and New York getting severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes has increased since earlier forecasts this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the threat level from "slight" to "enhanced."

This scale is a five level risk assessment of potential severe storms. It goes from marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high, so you can see we're in the mid-range of the risk.

Which is a relatively high risk. 

The main threat continues to be strong, damaging thunderstorm winds. Not everybody will see this, but a few of us will. I almost guarantee there will be at least some isolated reports of damage in Vermont and New York today.

There continues to be a small but real threat of tornadoes today. Winds are veering with height, so presents the possibility.  The five percent chance zone - the area where there's a five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point, has been expanded eastward from the Champlain Valley to now cover almost all of Vermont.

There's not a lot of sun to destabilize the atmosphere, so that's the only thing that would help preclude storms.  There was some thought that rain showers this morning would further stabilize the atmosphere and limit storms, but those morning light showers have mostly dissipated, so I don't expect them to be a factor.

Damaging hail is still a risk, too.

The upper air dynamics are so favorable for severe storms I don't blame the Storm Prediction Center for upgrading the risk today.

While widespread flooding is not likely, a few areas that get hit by two or more torrential thunderstorms could have high water issues. Any thunderstorm could also produce street flooding and dangerous lightning.

I still think not much is going to happen until around 2 p.m. or after. But storms should rapidly develop today in New York and head east. It's going to be a very busy and possibly dangerous late afternoon and early evening in Vermont.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

I hope you like busy weather days because today will be one here in Vermont and surrounding areas.

The biggest thing to worry about is the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, as most of the ingredients you need for such weather are coming together.

There's high winds aloft. Winds are changing direction with height. There's plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to feed the storms.

All you need is something to trigger the storms.  And..viola! A nice strong cold front coming in from the west to act as a trigger.

The biggest threat from the storms will be strong damaging winds. As is the case with all severe storm risks, only a few places will get destructive gusts.  It's impossible to predict who will get a severe storm until less than an hour before it happens, so all of us have to be weather aware today and listen for possible warnings.

Here's a refresher on the general rules. If your area goes under a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch, just keep doing your regular routine but keep an ear to a weather radio or local media for updates and alerts and be ready to take action if necessary.

If you get a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, take shelter pronto. You'll want to get into a sturdy building and stay away from windows.  In the off chance you get a tornado warning in particular, it definitely wouldn't hurt to head to the basement and stay in a sturdy area down there until you get the all clear.

TORNADO?

I did mention tornadoes up above, didn't it?  Here's another thing: There's actually a very slight, but real risk of tornadoes today, especially in the Champlain Valley and most of northern New York. Remember, I told you that the wind direction today is changing with elevation. Such a scenario can sometimes lead to tornadoes.

If discrete thunderstorms -- storms not part of a long line of storms that will get going ahead of the main show just ahead of the cold front today - those storms could produce a tornado.  If these storms form, they would develop this afternoon over the Adirondacks and head toward the Champlain Valley.

Like I said, the chance of a tornado is low, but I bet there will be one or two, especially over New York and possibly the Champlain Valley. To give you an idea of the chances of a twister, today from the Champlain Valley west, there's a five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of where you're sitting.  Like I said, a remote possibility, but real.

Areas in green and brown have a very, very slight but still real
chance of a tornado today. Yep, this includes Vermont. 

As the cold front approaches, I think there will be a good line of showers and thunderstorms, a few of them severe, just ahead of it.

Some of those storms will grab some of those high-level strong winds and bring them to the Earth's surface as damaging gusts.

A few places could also get large, damaging hail stones. There's a chance one or two storms might bring hail big enough to ding cars and siding, and damage windows.

Overall, the best chances for severe storms today will be between 2 and 8 p.m. with western areas getting the storms earlier and eastern areas getting them later in that time frame.

FLOOD ISSUES?

The storms will be moving through pretty fast, so they won't linger over any one area for a long time. That's good to prevent flooding. Still, torrential downpours will come with some of the storms, so there might be street and small stream flooding.

A few flooding problems have already developed here and there due to previous showers and snow melting from the  mountains. A local state of emergency was declared yesterday around Saranac Lake, New York due to flooding, which is ongoing this morning.

A flood warning has also been issued for the Lake Champlain basin, as the lake approaches its flood stage of 100 feet. At that level, some low lying roads get flooded, wave action could cause damage to camp property and places like Perkins Pier in Burlington go underwater.

The flooding along Lake Champlain is expected to be pretty minor, as things don't usually get that gnarly along the lake unless the level goes to at least 100.5 feet.

NON-STORM HIGH WINDS

Even if you don't get a nasty thunderstorm, winds will become pretty strong and gusty outside the areas of thunderstorms today and tonight. Even after the cold front goes through and the threat of severe thunderstorms ends, strong southwest winds gusting to as high as 45 in Vermont and 55 mph in New York state tonight could bring down a few more trees and power lines.

LOOKING AHEAD

Once you get through the stormy weather today and tonight, you're going to be rewarded with a gorgeous Saturday. Temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s, and there will be quite a bit of sun.

It looks like another strong cold front will come through sometime Sunday. Unlike today, there won't be thunderstorms. Instead, there will be a fair number of scattered showers, all on the light side during Sunday. I think most of the showers will hold off until afternoon and really get going Sunday night - but there won't be any big huge downpours.

Sunday's cold front will introduce a brief shot of chilly air Sunday night and Monday. It could even snow on the mountain peaks Sunday night. (I know, you don't like the s-word, but I had to say it.)

There could also be frost Sunday night and Monday morning, and again Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Such a frost isn't the least bit unusual for our neck of the woods in early May. Still, if you brought out some sensitve plants, bring 'em indoors.

A welcome spell of dry weather is likely starting Monday and continuing probably at least into Thursday.  Temperatures will also warm up again, reaching the 60s Tuesday and possibly low 70s Wednesday and Thursday.

Storm Threat In Vermont, Rest Of Northeast Through Thursday

Screen grab from a WCVB report on Wednesday's
 flooding in Boston. Scattered severe storms and pockets
of flash flooding could occur again anywhere in New
England today through Saturday. 

Wednesday was a gorgeous summer day in Vermont and other parts of New England - unless it wasn't.  

We entered a weather pattern on Monday in which the weather is generally good, but some areas get some big thunderstorms.

One town gets drenched and blasted by a big thunderstorm. Meanwhile, two towns over, it's wall-to-wall sunshine. It's definitely hit and miss season.

This pattern intensified Wednesday, and will continue to do so today and Friday and Saturday, too.  Which means some of us will get a very nasty thunderstorm or two, and other areas will stay dry.

It will eventually rain everywhere during this period, but some of us will only get a little rain, while others will be at risk of flash flooding. You can't tell much more than an hour or two in advance who gets what.

But at least we can give you the general scenario.

Wednesday, the worst of the storms were concentrated in southern New England, the Hudson Valley of New York below Albany and to a lesser extent, the western Adirondacks.

In this weather pattern, storms develop, intensify super fast, then die out. They're also slow movers, so you get torrential downpours and flash flooding. All of these storms also have the potential for damaging winds and large hail.

The storms Wednesday, and the ones expected today and tomorrow, also tend to contain a LOT of dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

One such storm lingered over the Boston, Massachusetts area Wednesday afternoon, causing all kinds of problems with flash flooding, downed trees, lightning strikes and fires.

The Logan Airport arrival tunnel had two feet of water in it, with cars stuck. Other roads in and around Boston had as much as three feet of water on them. The Boston Globe said the Dorchester section of Boston was particularly hard hit, with about 3.5 inches of rain pouring down there in a very short time.

Now there's today, and the weather situation is almost identical to Wednesday.  Chances are thaaat different spots will be hardest hit than those that got it Wednesday. That's just the randomness of where the storms get going.

My guess is the thunderstorms are most likely over the Adirondacks, and probably over the Green Mountains. But a gusher could pop up anywhere, at anytime between noon and sunset today.

By noon, we in Vermont and elsewhere in New England will see those towering clouds that are the hallmark of developing storms. Just like yesterday, some of these storms will grow tall and strong, and move very slowly.

Whoever gets under any one of these storms will see quite a bit of weather drama, while maybe three miles up the road, they might hear a low rumble of thunder and that's it. Again, it's the hit and miss nature of the season.

Keep an eye to the sky, and seek shelter if it looks like a storm is looming. I'm pretty sure a few isolated pockets of Vermont, and most of the rest of the Northeast for that matter, will have some thunderstorm wind damage, and some local flash flooding. Most of us will escape that. A few will not.

Just like last night, the storms will die down tonight after sunset. The heat of the sun is a large part of the fuel for these storms, so when the heat source goes away, so do the storms.

Friday, it's rinse and repeat, with maybe a few changes. It'll still be very warm and humid, and by early afternoon, scattered storms will again erupt. They'll again hit some areas, and avoid others.

However, by late afternoon and evening, a weather front will be approaching northwestern New York, which could organize storms into strong lines containing severe winds and hail.

However, that'll come in toward sunset, and some of the storms' power will ease as they approach Vermont. Showers and storms could come through any time Friday night, but they are unlikely to be severe.

Saturday, the cold front finally comes in. What kinds of storms we get all depends on the timing of that front.

If the cold front comes through in the morning, before the peak heating of the day, there will just be some showers, a few downpours, and a couple rumbles of thunder.

If the cold front holds off until later, we could get some interesting severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

The cold front is coming from the west. Since tit will go through later the more east you go, at this point I think the best chance of severe storms Saturday will be in eastern Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and eastern Massachusetts.

Again, the big caveat: If the cold front speeds up or slows down, that forecast will definitely change.

Bottom line: Just be prepared to take shelter from a potentially strong thunderstorm anytime between now and Saturday evening.

Worst Severe Storm Outbreak Of Summer Trashed Vermont Saturday

Hours after a line of deadly and destructive
thunderstorms tore though New York, Vermont and
New Hampshire, this isolated,. pretty storm
formed at sunset over northern New York.
This is a view from St. Albans, Vermont.  

OK, those thunderstorms Saturday afternoon were bad. Very bad.

I'm trying to get the details, but the storms might have caused two deaths across the state.

A death was reported amid falling trees in Hubbardton, and another person died of cardiac arrest at an event called Raftapalooza in Colchester.  

Raftapalooza, in which boaters and rafters gather for a day of partying in Malletts Bay, turned into chaos as rafts overturned, boats collided and tents blew away when the severe storm hit, says the Burlington Free Press.

Raftapalooza participants were warned of the approaching storm and were trying to get off the lake, with the help of the U.S. Coast Guard and local police. But there were just so many people and so much chaos with the storm, it was hard.

A 56 year old man was in cardiac arrest by 3:30 p.m. during the storms. It's unclear what happened to him during the storm.

The U.S. Coast Guard and other rescue outfits were swamped by many, many reports of boaters in distress on Lake Champlain as the storms packing wind gusts of at least 60 mph hit. I don't know why all those boaters were out there, as we knew there was a chance of severe storms hours before they actually hit.

Green Mountain Power said the storms cut electricity to more than 20,000 Vermont homes and businesses and 10,000 of them still had no electricity Sunday morning.

Motorists along Interstate 89 in central and eastern Vermont reported miles and miles of broken or uprooted trees along the sides of the major highway.

Trees and power lines came down in dozens and dozens of towns in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

The Valley News reported a tree fell through the roof of a South Royalton, Vermont home and pierced the ceiiing in a room where a 26 year old man was trying to sleep. Luckily, it turns out the guy didn't get hurt, but he got a face full of insulation and quite a scare.

Cleanup shouldn't be a problem weatherwise today as it will be warm, sunny, and storm-free.

There's a chance of more storms - some possible strong, here we go again - Monday afternoon.

Severe Weather Threat In Vermont, Surrounding Areas Today

A severe thunderstorm looms over St. Albans Bay,
Vermont a couple summers ago. There's a good
chance of similar scenes today.  

1:30 PM UPDATE:

Storms began firing up in northern New York state around noon, right on schedule and as of 1:30 p.m. were expanding and strengthening.

A few were poised to make it into Vermont within the next hour two, all the while getting bigger.

There will probably be only pockets of wind damage from the handful of severe storms that will develop within the oncoming area of occasional thunderstorms.

That's a typical pattern with Northeastern severe outbreaks. A few towns get hit hard, while most just get a regular old noisy thunderstorm.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issued a discussion of the situation at 1:09 EDT, and said they might or might not issue a severe thunderstorm watch for northern New York and western Vermont.

Wind flows are weak enough so that they're trying to decide whether there will be enough in the way of bad storms to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.  Severe storms might end up being widely scattered at best. We'll see.

But these few severe ones can happen anywhere so watch out. Plus, the non-severe ones could still have a lot of lightning and gusty winds, so you'll still want to get inside.

It still looks like some of these storms might repeatedly hit a few areas of the hilly terrain of northeastern New York and most of Vermont, so local flash floods remain a threat throughout the day, despite the dry conditions we've seen this month.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I'd skip the hike or the boating excursion or the golf outing in Vermont today as we have a pretty damn good chance of some strong thunderstorms, which could turn severe in a few spots.

As I write this early Tuesday morning,  the sky is mostly clear over my weather hacienda in northwestern Vermont and the rest of the state.

Don't let that fool you. The sun will actually help create the storms that form today by adding heat and instability to the atmosphere.

A cold front is slowly coming in from the west and is pushing into the warm, humid air over us.

The timing is such that, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, the area with the highest risk of severe storms is all of Vermont, eastern New York, northwestern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.

Strong winds and local flash floods are the biggest hazards from these storms in Vermont and surrounding areas.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington sees a scenario in which storms will fire up in the Adirondacks around noon or a little after that, march into the Champlain Valley by mid afternoon, get into central Vermont during the late afternoon or evening and east of the Green Mountains later in the evening or early tonight.

As you can see, this line or area of storms will move pretty slowly. So it's going to be a pretty active day for a lot of us.

Don't go out on the lakes in Vermont today, or you
might find yourself under a scary sky like this. 

As is always the case with this type of situation, not everybody will get a severe storm. In fact most of us won't. But be on the lookout.

You should have a weather radio today with you, or failing that, pay attention to local media who will relay any warnings as to what to do.

Following are the kinds of weather alerts you might hear today, the relative liklihood of them happening and what to do about them.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Pretty damn likely this afternoon.  That means just keep doing what you were going to do anyway, with the following exceptions:

Keep an eye to the sky and listen for upgrades to warnings from the National Weather Service. (Details on what to do in the warnings are coming up a couple paragraphs down.)

This morning is an excellent time to get stuff that can easily blow around, like lawn furniture, toys, garbage bins etc. indoors so they don't become projectiles if storms really get going this afternoon. You don't want your neighbor to be clonked in the head with your beach umbrella or bouncy house, do you?

Todays Storm Prediction Center forecast map.
Areas in yellow have the strongest chance of
severe storms. Note that Vermont is yellow in this map.  

The likely thunderstorm watch also means, as noted, that you should ditch the plans for any major outdoor excursions today.

You don't want to be caught out in the middle of the lake when lightning strikes are slamming down all around you.

And jeez, Camels Hump has been there for a zillion years and will be for a zillion more. Can't you just wait for a nicer day to go on a hike up there?

I'd say there's a 99.99 percent chance of one or several or many gorgeous hiking days later this summer to take advantage of. Go then.

Besides, even if there are no big thunderstorms, do you really want to hike in this humidity, this wind, with haze and clouds ruining the view from the summits? Didn't think so.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Chances are pretty good but not certain you'll get one of these today here in Vermont

If you get a severe thunderstorm warning, get indoors. In a sturdy building.

It's tempting to look out at the storm through the windows, but that can be risky. Tthe biggest threats from today's storms are strong straight line winds that can cause damage, like blow out windows or send tree branches or other debris through them.

A secondary risk is big hail, but that is not as likely as the wind, but it's still something to consider.

Flash Flood Warning: Not all that likely, but possible in a few spots today and this evening.

I know what you're thinking. "Matt, you spent an entire weather blog post on Sunday whining about a drought in Vermont, and now you're telling me there might be a flood? Geez!"

Well, yes, it's been dry.

But here's the deal. As I said, these thunderstorms are going to be moving fairly slowly, because the cold front they're attached to is moving slowly.

This might mean thunderstorms could do something called training. They could line up like boxcars on a train track. Thunderstorm after thunderstorm would go over the same spot like all those boxcars, and each storm would drop heavy downpours.

The dry weather we've had means you'd probably need 1.5 or two inches of rain in an hour, or three inches of rain or more within three hours to set off a flash flood in Vermont today.

A few spots that get hit by one of these thunderstorm trains could get that amount of rain, which would send water gushing off Vermont's hillsides to form a local flash flood.

Any flash flooding would be limited to just a few spot areas. This isn't going to be a Hurricane Irene, which trashed the entire state with huge floods.

If you do get a flash flood warning and you're in a place that's high and doesn't flood, stay put. I know that's boring but read a damn book or something.

If you're driving and encounter a flooded road, for gawd's sake don't drive through it like so many idiots do. It doesn't take much water to at all to sweep a car away. And how do you know the road under the water is still there? It might have been washed away.

If your house is in a flood prone area, have a plan to get out very, very quickly. They call them flash floods for a reason. They happen in an, um, flash.

The weather in Vermont and surrounding areas will settle down tonight. For most of us, the storms today will be good thing, because we need the rain.

And it's fun to get a good old thunder bumper now and again.

Just stay safe.