Saturday, September 10, 2016

Tornado Watch Possible In N. New York Ahead of Autumnal Cold Front

Areas shaded in yellow are at risk for severe storms
later today and tonight. Areas in dark green have a
marginal chance of severe weather. In Vermont, if there
are any bad storms, it would hit later tonight. 

As of 3:15 p.m. Saturday, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center was considering issuing a tornado watch in northern New York for later this afternoon and early tonight.

The tornado watch, if it is issued, would cover New York's St. Lawrence Valley and the western and central Adirondacks.

A couple of tornadoes are also possible in southern Ontario.

Strong winds aloft, winds that shift directions at different heights, could touch off a few rotating supercell thunderstorms along and just south of a warm front that's now moving northward through the region.

It's possible that if these supercells develop, they could create a tornado or two.

At this point, it looks like the storms will weaken somewhat as they move into Vermont tonight, but there is still a chance of strong, damaging wind gusts in the Green Mountain State tonight. The risk of tornadoes in Vermont with this is very low.

If there are strong, damaging winds with storms in Vermont tonight, they're most likely in the northwestern half of the state.


There are actually Vermonters who are done with this never ending summer. Done with the heat and humidity.

They're ignoring the fact that we will eventually have our long, cold winter to contend with, but whatever. 

Fans of cooler weather can rejoice, though: We have one more humid day coming today, one more round of potentially strong thunderstorms feeding off that humidity, and then September weather will arrive a week and a half late.

The details:

A warm front will come through Vermont today from the south. It's the remnants of that weak "cold" front, which wasn't that cold, that came through Friday morning.

Anyway, we'll be back in the soupy air by this afternoon, and we'll have to endure a terribly muggy night tonight just as we did Thursday night.

But a cold front is coming and it's got some ooomph. It won't come through Vermont until early Sunday morning. That's a good thing, despite tonight's humidity, because it it would come through earlier, it would trigger some strong to severe storms this afternoon and tonight, possibly quite a few of them.

That won't be the case. Still, we might get some strong storms later tonight. because as I said, this cold front is fairly strong and has some pretty strong upper level winds with it.

The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe storms late today and tonight across northern New York and a marginal risk in western Vermont.

The thinking is the storms will get going in Ontario later today and move east. (There might be a couple of tornadoes in Ontario today. They've had a busy time with tornadoes there for the past month or so, go figure)

 Some of the storms that do get going will be able to grab those strong upper level winds up above and drag them down to the surface. That means the possibility of damaging wind gusts, especially across northern New York tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center said there's a chance that some of the storms in New York might start spinning, so there's a very minimal chance of a brief tornado in the St. Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks tonight.

This is the same system that set off a few tornadoes in Illinois Friday, but of course any twisters in the Northeast are less likely than they were in the Midwest Friday.

The storms will weaken somewhat as they get into western Vermont a little before dawn then sweep across the rest of the state during the first half of Sunday morning.

Some of the storms might set off some gusty winds that could locally take down some trees and power lines. The storms could produce briefly heavy rain, so you might get a half inch or a little more rain in a few spots.

That's not much drought relief, especially since the rain, where it falls, will come down in a sharp heavy burst and not be the kind of slow soaker we'll need.

You'll totally feel a change in the air Sunday after the cold front goes by. It will be cooler and less humid. September-ish.

Sunday night, areas that haven't seen temperatures below 50 degrees since mid-June will probably get into the 40s.

It'll turn warmer - but not summery - Monday and Tuesday before the next strong cold front gets here.

High temperatures will only make it into the 60s Wednesday and Thursday, and we might well get our first frost of the season in the cold hollows of New York, Vermont and the rest of northern New England.

The frost won't be widespread, but tis the season!

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