Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Tropical Storm Matthew Forms. Could Be East Coast Threat, But HIGHLY Uncertain

Tropical Storm Matthew is still disorganized over
the Lesser Antilles as of Wednesday, but is
forecast to consolidate and strengthen.
As expected, Tropical Storm Matthew formed near the Lesser Antilles this morning.

Even though it has barely formed and is still disorganized, it's got sustained winds of 60 mph.

As it consolidates itself, it will likely strengthen into a hurricane as it initially heads westward into and through the Caribbean Sea. 

It will be going over very warm water, record warm, in fact, so that's one big factor that favors strengthening.

There is potential Matthew, my namesake storm, could affect the East Coast, but before you panic, I'd hold off. The future path of this thing is highly uncertain from the point at which it gets to a position south of Hispaniola or Cuba.
It'll turn northward. Many of the forecasting computer models have a sharp northward turn, but when Matthew decided to head north is really open to question.

If it turns north sooner than expected, Matthew would slide east of Florida and probably head north out to sea, or at least far enough off the coast to not be a terrible thing for the East Coast.

OR, it could go east of Florida and then go directly north into New England from there, which would be really bad.

OR, if it turns north a bit laterit could smack right into Florida and cause big trouble there, then ride up along the East Coast as a weakening but still dangerous and flood-producing tropical storm,

OR if Matthew turns north even later than expected, the threat would be along the Gulf of Mexico.

So at this point, it's anybody's guess, so I suppose we'll all have to stay tuned, wait and see if Matthew will be disaster, or just another tropical puff of wind that evaporates before anything bad happens.

It's a waiting game at this point.

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