Sunday, July 14, 2019

So Far, So Good With Barry But Danger Remains. Also Uncomfortable Vermont Impacts

Flooding from Barry in Mandeville, La on Saturday.
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Reuters
Tropical Storm Barry its winds no longer much of a factor, continued to plow through Louisiana this morning, dumping heavy rains and unleashing lots of floods, as expected.

That's the bad news. The good news is, although the threat of destructive life-threatening floods is still big time there, some threatened areas have been spared so far. New Orleans, for instance, remains in good shape this morning.

Storm surges were certainly damaging along the coast, but could have been worse. The surge overtopped some levees, causing some serious flooding. People reportedly had to be rescued from rooftops in Terrebonne Parish, which is south of New Orleans.

The heaviest rain had so far mostly missed Louisiana, until this morning, when heavier rain bands started moving in.  That's about to get worse as the day wears on.

Barry has always been a weird storm.  When it was first starting to form in the Gulf of Mexico last Wednesday, it threw tremendous rains into New Orleans, flooding much of the city.

Since then, the most torrential rains with Barry have remained offshore, to the south of the storm's center.  That was true even early this morning, when the dying center of Barry was over western Louisiana.

True, some heavy rain bands did come in, causing some significant floods in southern Mississippi and coastal Alabama.

Today, however, as the remnants of Barry slog slowly northward toward Arkansas, that heavy rain in the northern Gulf of Mexico will pull north along with it. That's when the real torrents of rain will come, especially across central and southwest Louisiana, according to forecasters.  The highest risk for flash flooding there with this storm is actually this afternoon, evening and overnight.

Tomorrow, the best chances of Barry flooding are in the mid-Mississippi Valley, say in eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Although I don't think Barry will do many scary things here in Vermont, we will feel its impacts. Especially in the sweat department.

The remnants of Barry will move toward us, and that will make the humidity rocket upward, especially as we get into Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

It will probably be the worst spell of high humidity we've had so far this summer. Daytime highs will get into the 80s, with dewpoints probably in the low 70s. That's about as humid as it gets in a Vermont summer. Nights will be oppressively hot - too muggy to sleep without air conditioning.

One potential danger from Barry and all his wet air coming at us is the possibility of local flash floods. That risk is definitely iffy and may well NOT come to pass,  but we'll have to keep an eye on that as we get on later in the week.

We do know that the humid air, the remnants of Barry and stalled, weak weather fronts near the Green Mountain State will set off some fairly frequent showers and thunderstorms. With all the humidity around, some of these storms will surely set off some torrential downpours.

If these torrential storms slow down or stall over a certain area, or a string of several such storms goes over the same area, one after another, that would increase the flash flood potential.

Like other events this spring and summer, even if Vermont does get some flooding out of this, and that's a bif if, the trouble wouldn't be statewide. Some towns would get nailed, while most others would be fine.

A couple videos:

 News report of overtopped levee in Myrtle Grove, New Orleans. Looks ominous:

 

Storm surge flooding in Brathwaite, Louisiana. You can see in the drone video water overtopping a levee here, too:

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