Today: Some Severe Risk New England; Ominous Tornado Threat Southern Plains

Areas in dark green have a chance of a
few isolated severe thunderstorms today.
Area in yellow has a somewhat greater
chance of severe storms, but this won't
be nearly as widespread as the dangerous
weather in the southern Plains today. 

1:15 p.m. Update

Maybe it's because I'm from rather tornado-free Vermont, but I'd be scared right now if I lived in Oklahoma.

As of this writing the National Weather Service was just about to issue a rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado watch for western and central Oklahoma.

Supercells are expected to explosive develop there in the next couple of hours in an atmosphere that has a rare combination of extreme factors that can form violent and long lasting tornadoes.

This kind of thing happens only once every few years, so forecasters are right that this is a very dangerous situation. Everyone in this region should be on high alert for the rest of this afternoon and evening. 

Here in the Northeast, things still aren't too bad as of 1 p.m. There are a couple of broken lines of storms forming, the most well developed one so far in east central New York and starting to run into southwestern Vermont.

This line will continue to develop and might cause some severe storms later this afternoon.  Other storms will develop, and some might still become severe, especially from the Green Mountains east.

Some storms were already developing near Burlington and near the Canadian border as of 1 p.m. Keep a watchful eye to the skies this afternoon for scattered strong to locally severe storms. We're still in line to get this.

At least it's not remotely comparable to the situation in Oklahoma.

UPDATE 10:15 a.m. Monday:

The first hints of a line of storms looks like they are about to form in the northwestern Adirondacks and then head east. There's still a chance of some scattered severe thunderstorms in Vermont and the rest of New England, starting in the northwest in about an hour or two.

The storms should be through Vermont by late afternoon, with the greatest but still uncertain risk of strong to severe storms in the eastern half of Vermont.

I'm thinking the Champlain Valley should be through the brief window of severe thunderstorm risk by about 3 p.m. or so.

Meanwhile, that high risk zone of potentially dangerous tornadoes today has been expanded slightly east to encompass the Oklahoma City metro area.

Earlier, Oklahoma City was still in a serious, but ever so slightly less dire Moderate Risk. People in Oklahoma and Texas should be ready to seek shelter at a moment's notice today. It's still a dangerous situation out there today.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

The chances of some very, very dangerous tornadoes is high in the southern Plains today as the atmospheric conditions are almost off the charts to create such an ominous hazard.

That, of course, is the big weather headline of the day, and I'll get into the major threats in Oklahoma and Texas in a bit. But since we're in New England, I'll talk about a lesser, but still real threat of severe thunderstorms in our neck of the woods today.

I was surprised by the amount of severe weather in New York and Pennsylvania yesterday.  There were quite a few tornado warnings, though I don't know yet if any touched down in those states.

The severe weather made a run at southwestern Vermont, but the storms weakened a little just before reaching the Green Mountain State.

But it was a close call. There are no reports of significant damage in Vermont, but just over the western border into Fort Edward, New York and the Glens Falls area, it was something! Tornado warning went up west of Glens Falls, a roof blew off a house in South Glens Falls, and there was a ot of damage in Fort Edward.

Some of the storms in Vermont overnight produced torrential downpours, with up to three inches of rain reported near Worcester. That caused minor flooding and some areas of road washouts.

It's possible some of today's storms, if they're persistent, could cause some local flash flooding, but that problem won't be widespread.

We're still in a severe thunderstorm threat today in Vermont and the rest of New England. As always, only a few people will receive any severe storms, but stay weather alert.

A cold front will be intruding on warm, humid air in place right now. There was a round of thunderstorms early this morning, which often tends to stabilize the air and reduce the chances of severe weather.

But there will be some sun during the rest of this morning, and that will destabilize the air again enough to raise the threat of storms.

While anyplace in Vermont and the rest of New England could get a strong storm today, the best chances seem to be in the southeastern third of Vermont, most of New Hampshire, and western Massachusetts and Connecticut. 

The biggest threat from today's storms would be strong straight line winds. There is actually a very minimal but still real threat of a brief tornado in southeastern Vermont, western Massachusetts and New Hampshire. But nothing like what the southern Plains will experience today.

Conditions in Vermont will quickly calm down this evening and in the early part of tonight further east into New England.

So just go about your business, and if you hear a severe thunderstorm warning, just get into a sturdy house or building and wait it out. It won't last long.

SOUTHERN PLAINS DANGER

A rare high risk zone (in pink) today for potentially strong,
violent, long-lived tornadoes. Areas in red, including
Oklahoma City are at nearly as high of risk as the pink zone.

I can certain understand why a lot of people are worried about the weather today in northern Texas and Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has declared a pretty rare high risk zone for significant and very dangerous tornadoes in much of that region, including the cities of Lawton, Altus and El Reno, Oklahoma.

This is the first high risk alert the Storm Prediction Center has issued for anywhere in the nation since May 18, 2017.

The much larger metro area of Oklahoma City is just outside the edge of the high risk zone, but still in a moderate risk zone for big tornadoes, which is something to take super seriously.

A lot of schools are closed in the Oklahoma City metro area today so that kids are not stuck in potentially unsafe schools, or worse, out on the road in school buses when dangerous weather hits.

Tornado outbreaks often peak around the time of the evening rush hour, so I imagine a lot of people in that region are calling in "sick" to work today, so they're not caught out on jam packed roads if dangerous weather hits.

Nobody knows for sure whether Oklahoma City and its populous suburbs wil get nailed today, but somebody will probably see a very bad tornado. Everyone hopes, of course, the worst tornadoes stay out in open country.

The wording on the Storm Prediction Center's advisory this morning isn't pretty: "This event should result in a significant threat to life and property," says the advisory. It adds that conditions are favorable for "long-track strong tornadoes and possibly violent tornadoes."

There will be at least two rounds of bad storms with this unusually strong storm system. The first is already creating severe thunderstorms in western Texas and those should grow and sweep across northern Texas and Oklahoma this morning and early afternoon. These storms will carry the risk of some tornadoes and large hail.

There have already been reports of baseball sized hail early this morning in northwestern Texas. Usually, you don't see hailstones that big with early morning thunderstorm. That gives you an idea of how volatile this situation is.

Then the second, most serious round gets going this afternoon into the evening. That's when the region I described is under the gun for violent tornadoes, hail up to the size of softballs and straight line winds of 80 mph or even more.

Not everybody in this area will get some extreme weather, but a few places probably will. This will be in the news headlines tonight and tomorrow.

Tornadoes obviously capture attention, but another big threat is looming with these storms, especially up in Oklahoma and in particular the Oklahoma City area.

It's been wet there, and extreme amounts of rain will accompany these dangerous, tornadic thunderstorms. There's a high risk of flash flooding in central Oklahoma today, says NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.

It's only somewhat more common to have a high risk zone for flash floods than a high risk zone for tornadoes. Whatever the case, Oklahoma and some surrounding areas are in for a very, very rough day.