Great Lakes Flooding Will Be Much Worse Than This Year's Not Bad Lake Champlain Flood

Flooding along Lake Ontario in New York in 2017. Flooding in
the Great Lakes could be even worse this year.

Here in Vermont, Lake Champlain has been above its 100-foot flood stage since April 20, and it won't go below stage for awhile yet.

The lake had been slowly receding, until we got whomped by all that rain Friday.

Most of central and northern Vermont, and the Adirondacks got more than an inch of rain, and that water flowed into the rivers, and now into the lake. 

After peaking at around 100.8 feet aroud the first of the month, it had gone down to 100.25 or so by Thursday. Now, as of Saturday morning, it was up to 100.5 feet and still rising from all that runoff. 

So far, damage has been light along Lake Champlain because it's far from the highest level on record and winds have been relatively light most of the time. Which means there haven't been much in the way of battering waves.

With more rain in the forecast this week, the lake will only slowly recede after today, if at all.

The high water in Lake Champlain is a temporary inconvenience for some, but further west, the Great Lakes are much more problematic. Due to heavy winter snows and now a very wet spring, the Great Lakes are getting greater.

Water is rising in those lakes, and some might reach record levels later this spring. This will be a months-long problem, too. The Great Lakes are so big, it takes a long time for water to go down after they start to flood.

According to The Weather Channel, New York is bracing for record flooding along the shores of Lake Ontario. This is the second time in two years there was such a problem there. Lake Ontario flooding caused about $100 million in damage in the spring of 2017.

Phys.org reports experts think flooding this year will be even worse than in 2017.

Areas around Toronto and other spots in Ontario are also bracing for damaging Great Lakes floods.

Towns along the shore of Lake Erie in Ohio are flooded, and that is expected to get worse as well.

Flood levels will vary quickly in the Great Lakes even if overall water levels stay high. Persistent winds from a particular direction on a given day would "tilt" the water to one end of the lakes or the other.

For instance, a day with strong  northeast winds would push water into Ohio, but a spell of southwesterly winds would send water into Buffalo and other communities in western New York.

It seems pretty unknown what, if any, effect climate change is having on the Great Lakes levels. On one hand, warmer temperatures would cause more evaporation, which would lower lake levels. But extreme precipitation events could also become more likely, which would make lake levels rise.

I guess with so many consequences of climate change, expect more variability and extremes in the Great Lakes.




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