Weather Pattern Change: No Snow And Hints Of Summer

Even the National Weather Service office in South Burlington seems a bit excited.

The eight to fourteen day forecast from the National Weather
Service Climate Prediction Center hints at above
normal temperatures to end the month in
the eastern United States. It stays cold in the Rockies.

On their home page this morning, they touted the national eight-to-fourteen day general national weather forecast from the NWS's Climate Prediction Center. 

All long range forecasts are uncertain, but this particular one calls for greater than even chances of warmer than normal temperatures in the East, including in Vermont, for the closing ten days of May. (Their six to ten day forecast has basically the same scenario.)

This would mean a change from the persistently dreary, cool and sometimes snowy weather we've had this month. It would also mean our first consistent taste of summer.

High temperatures this time of year are usually in the upper 60s to around 70. And those normal highs continue to climb as we make our way through the month.

Which means warmer than normal temperatures, if they happen, would definitely feel like summer. I'd expect we'd have some days under this long range forecast to be well into the 70s or even 80s. If the forecast is accurate, that is.

It's been a wet month and that trend will continue in the short term. A series of storms that is expected to bring several days of severe weather to the middle of the nation will also send a series of warm fronts towards us.

Warm fronts do bring warmer air in general (duh!), so that fits the Climate Prediction Center forecasts. The fronts also tend to bring rain. The first batch will come through Friday morning. It won't be a tremendous storm, not even close. But it will continue our wet trend.

It will stay on the cool side at least through Saturday, too. But seasonably cool, not cold and snowy like earlier this week. Those days are over, finally. About time, too. The snow depth at the summit of Mount Mansfield is back up to 58 inches, which is a lot for mid-May.

The next warm front looks like it will come along Sunday. Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington know that will bring showers, but they understandably don't yet know where most of the showers will set up. It all depends upon the placement of the front.

Temperatures Sunday will be tricky, too. It'll be cool north of the front and warm and maybe a little sticky (summer!) south of the front. We just don't know where the front will be.

Enough warm and humid air might come along by Monday to set off some summer-like thunderstorms, but it's too soon to speculate on how extensive those storms might be, if they develop.

That long range forecast I opened with in this blog post also calls for even chances of above or below normal rainfall at the end of the month. That's a hint that May could close out not only warm, but maybe a little sunnier and drier than it's been.