Sunday, May 19, 2019

Quick Taste Of Summer: Humidity, Storms Briefly Come To Vermont

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms in the Northeast
Monday, including Vermont (dark green shading). That big
red blob in the Plains represents a decent chance of
tornadoes on Monday, some of which might be quite strong. 
Our first real taste of summer is coming, briefly to the North Country later today through Monday in the form of noticable humidity and the threat of thunderstorms.

A warm front was approaching Vermont early this morning. With it are showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Most of the rain today will come this morning and early afternoon and mostly in northern parts of the state.  

It's going to be tricky figuring out high temperatures today. It depends upon how far north the warm front gets. At least in southern sections, though, you'll notice warmth and a touch of summer humidity.

With that, there is a risk of scattered thunderstorms this evening, again especially in southern Vermont. A couple storms in this region have a chance of being a bit on the strong side, with gusty winds, lightning and downpours.  Scattered heavy downpours are likely across central Vermont today as well.

If that's not a sign of summer, nothing is.

Tonight will be the first warm, humid night of the year. It might not be a great idea to leave the windows open, though, because there will be a continued risk of showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two,

Monday could be an interesting day. Before a cold front arrives in the evening or overnight, warm, humid air will be in place. If you're working outside, you'll feel the humidity. Especially because we're not used to it yet. Drink plenty of fluids.

A series of disturbances in the atmosphere, plus that approaching cold front, will interact with that humidity to touch off more showers and storms. This will bring our first real chance of severe thunderstorms to Vermont this season.

I said chance because this isn't cast in stone. If skies clear during the day more than expected, that would add some instability to the air, increasing the chance of strong to severe storms. Even without the clearing, there could still be a strong storm or two. For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe storms on Monday.

If there are severe storms, they won't be all that widespread. A few towns could get some damaging wind gusts, but most of us won't. Just be weather aware. Go inside if you hear thunder. If a severe thunderstorm warning goes up in your area, do the usual thing and get into a sturdy building.  Consider postponing a drive until the storm passes.

Even if a thunderstorm that hits your area isn't severe, there still could be very heavy downpours, local street flooding and plenty of cloud-to-ground lightning. Again, just be aware of what's coming down the pike in terms of storms.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the best chance of strong storms on Monday will come between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m. Monday. Things will settle down quickly by sunset.

At least our severe weather threat in the Green Mountain State isn't extreme. A separate, strong storm is setting up a good chance of a big tornado outbreak in and around Oklahoma on Monday. Some tornadoes might end up being particularly strong, so that bears watching.

Monday is also the anniverary of the deadly EF-5 Moore, Oklahoma tornado of 2013, which killed 24 people, injured hundreds and caused about $2 billion in damage.

This same area is under the gun for possible strong tornadoes Monday.

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