Sunday, May 26, 2019

Terrible Tornadoes This Year Are "Normal," But Of Course That's Not Good

This chart is a little hard to read so click on it to make it bigger
and easier to see, but it shows the building number of
tornadoes each year since 2005. The black line is this year,
and we are off to the fastest first half of tornado season
since 2011.
It seems every day lately we get news of another terrible tornado. Deaths. Neighborhoods destroyed. Farms blown to pieces.

So it was last night when yet another tornado slammed into El Reno, Oklahoma, killing at least two people. A motel was blown apart, as was a good chunk of a mobile home park in El Reno, which is about 25 miles west of Oklahoma City.

If the words "El Reno" and "tornado" sound familiar, that's because the widest tornado on record 2.6 miles wide - hit El Reno in 2013, killing eight people, including storm chaser Tim Samaras.

There are unconfirmed reports of somewhat smaller tornadoes last night right in Oklahoma City, and in the southern part of Tulsa.

Preliminary reports indicate there have been 820 tornadoes in the United States so far this year, as of May 24. That sounds like a lot, and it is. But it's actually not anywhere near a record. Still, it's the most tornadoes as of this time of year since 2011.

By May 24 of the terrible tornado year of 2011, there had already been 1,252 twisters. In another awful year, 2008, there had been 1,139 tornadoes.

So far this year 34 people have died in United States tornadoes. On average about 75 or so people die in tornadoes annually. Last year, only ten people died in tornadoes, one of the lowest annual tolls on record. By contrast, 2011 saw 553 tornado deaths, the second worst year on record. In 1925, 774 people died.

It's still only midway through the tornado season, so it remains to be seen whether the year will keep trending busier than recent ones, and whether there will be more deaths.  The busy season could keep going, or the activity can abruptly shut down. You never know.

In the short term, the tornado forecast isn't really good. Tornadoes are forecast daily in the middle of the nation through Wednesday, and there could be quite a few of them on Tuesday, at least according to latest forecasts.

Indications are that the threat of severe weather and tornadoes will start to wane somewhat toward the end of the week.

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