Storm To Trash Most Of U.S. (Trouble Here In Vermont, Too)

Big rangeland fires, like this one in Texas back in March, are likely
today in a big area of th southwestern United States. This is the
first salvo in what will be a big, disruptive coast-to-coast storm.
photo by Blake Campbell. 

As we've been building up to all week, a massive storm is going to cause big trouble pretty much coast to coast, starting today.

The hazards include strong, damaging winds, extreme wildfire behavior, a blizzard, thundersnow, tornadoes, severe, thunderstorms, large hail, ice storms, sleet, freezing rain and flooding.

Pretty much everything except locusts. And we might not get an alien invasion. But still.

This will probably be remembered as one of the nation's worst storms of 2018. If not the worst, certainly one of the most wide-ranging. I'm sure you'll be seeing news headlines about this system today through Monday.

Here in Vermont, we face the prospect of freezing rain, possibly enough to cause damage to trees and power lines, sleet, maybe some snow, a lot of rain, possible flooding and possible high winds over the next several days. I'll get to that in a bit later we first cover the havoc in the rest of the nation.

WIND/FIRE

A huge area of the southwestern United States from southern California to Kansas, from Utah to Texas. This is on the southern flank of the developing storm that is getting going in eastern Colorado.

This strong storm is pulling fast moving air in from the west from southern California to Texas. The high winds, gusting as high as 70 to 80 mph in a vast area from the California deserts to west Texas, are sure to cause dust storms, topple trucks on freeways, cut power, damage buildings and knock over trees.

But that's the least of the Southwest's problems with this. Much of New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, western Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle are under a relatively rare extreme fire alert today. This extreme zone will still exist tomorrow - a quite rare two day event, but will be focused in western and northern Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

It's true much of this area is sparsely populated, limiting the number of people in the way of extremely fast moving wild and rangeland fires. But still, this type of weather situation can send walls of flames into small towns and cities throughout this region. And the fires will be moving so fast that it will be hard to get out of the way quickly enough. This is truly a potentially dangerous situation in the Southwest.

BLIZZARD

Fire will not be a problem north of this slow-moving storm over the next few days. However, a winter storm and blizzard will be the issue. Like the fires, the severe winter conditions are going to cover an unusually vast area.

As of this morning, winter storm warnings extend from northwestern Washington to western North Dakota. But the main show will come a little further east across all of South Dakota, much of northern and central Nebraska, into southern and central Minnesota. All of this area is under a winter storm watch, for Friday night and/or Saturday.

I'm sure many of these areas will be upgraded to a blizzard warning as the event draws closer. In fact, just as I was writing this early Thursday morning, the first upgrade to blizzard warning was issued for western South Dakota. This blizzard warning area will expand today.

When the home page of the National Weather Service is this colorful
expect a lot of weather hazards. Those watches, warnings and
alerts will spread east over the next few days a the storm heads
toward the east as well. 

The eastern half of South Dakota, much of Nebraska and Minnesota will probably start off with rain and thunderstorms Friday before going over to snow, with thundersnow also a good bet.

Once the heart of the blizzard arrives in this big region, these areas can expect heavy snow, winds gusting to more than 50 mph and plunging temperatures.

Whiteouts are very likely in this area, and I'm sure they will be recommending nobody go out onto the roads into the blizzard passes late in the weekend.  

The northern Plains do get blizzards occasionally this time of year as strong storms tend to come off the eastern Rockies and trudge eastward toward the Great Lakes. I have a feeling this blizzard will be stronger than most, what with forecasts of up to 18 inches of snow combined with all that wind.

Record cold tempeatures are likely after what will probably be record snowfalls in some areas of South Dakota. Even though the temperatures there will only warm slowly next week, there's a rising concern for flooding as the unusually large amounts of snow begin to melt later one.

STORMS/TORNADOES

South and east of this storm, a big zone in the middle and south of the nation is in for a lot of severe thunderstorms and likely some tornadoes. It's always very hard to predict in advance if there will be a lot of tornadoes and/or several very strong ones, but the potential is there.

Also, this type of set-up is a matter of blind luck, either good or bad. If there are any strong tornadoes, will they stay relatively harmlessly over open, rural areas? Or will they slice through a city, like they did in Tuscaloosa, Alabamaa and Joplin, Missouri in 2011?

There's no guarantee yet that there will even be any super strong tornadoes. But the risk is there.

On Friday, the main risk zone will run from eastern Texas, Louisiana, and on through Arkansas and western Missouri. Saturday the risk will move eastward to the central Gulf Coast states.

NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ICE/RAIN/WIND

Finally, we get to our neck of the woods. Do know, as I've been saying for the past couple of days, that this will be a tricky forecast. You will encounter some surprises, and some forecasts will end up being wrong.

An ice storm in my St. Albans, Vermont yard in January, 2017. Believe it
or not, I might end up with the same view this weekend as an ice storm
now seems like a distinct possibility -- in April! 

The problem is, that storm will set up a strong frontal boundary somewhere over northern New York and northern and central New England.

Temperatures will range widely near the front, from springtime mildness just to its south to winter conditions just to its north.

If the front positions itself at any given time just 30 or 40 miles north or south of where forecasters thought it would,  anyone in our region could have weather conditions much different than forecast.

For instance, a mild rain in southern Vermont could turn to ice. Or an expected slam with freezing rain or sleet or snow in the north could just turn out to be plain rain.  

Given all that, we need to pay attention to some signs of real trouble. There is the potential, especially from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, of enough freezing rain to cause damage across northern New York, northern and central Vermont, northern New Hampshire, maybe parts of Maine and southern Quebec.

It's impossible to tell at this point whether a given location will get mostly freezing rain, sleet, a fair amount of snow or just plain rain. Just be ready for unpleasant, wintry surprises.

Although spring snowstorms sometimes affect the region this time of year, I find it unbelievable that there is actually a threat of an ice storm in mid-April. Such is the weirdness of this spring, I guess.

While damage to trees and power lines is definitely NOT a sure bet, I'd take this seriously enough to make sure you have your flashlights handy and your devices fully charged this weekend in case the electricity goes out.

Most of the forecasts have been trending the ice toward plain rain Sunday, and especially Monday. The rather heavy rains, plus either the previous rains Saturday or the melting ice from Saturday, might trigger some river flooding by Monday and Tuesday.  It does look like a lot of precipitation will fall on our region. Just what type is the question.

Look out for strong winds on Monday, too, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

So yeah, this looks like a real mess for a lot of us. It's a bummer, to be sure. Let's just hope this will be the last significant blast of winter. I won't bet my next paycheck on that hope, however.