Temperatures on Thursday were actually near normal for a change, and we managed to get through an entire storm system last night. (albeit a fairly weak one) with just rain, and no wintry precipitation.But, as anticipated, your luck is about to run out again.
As advertised for days, that strong storm has set up in the middle of the nation and is in the process of forming that wet weather front near us through the weekend.
Strong Arctic high pressure in Canada will ensure plenty of cold air, so we in Vermont and much of the rest of the North Country can expect another winter storm this weekend.
Yeah, I know it's the middle of April, but ugh.
One change from previous forecasts is at least on Saturday and Saturday night, we can expect a lot more snow and somewhat less freezing rain than originally forecast.
Now the caveat: This is still a very, very tricky weather forecast, so I don't imagine things will go exactly as I'm about to outline. But the following is at least broadbrush, the current thinking of the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont, and other meteorologists.
The cold air pushing in tonight and tomorrow is coming in with even more force than originally thought, which means the entire atmosphere over us will be cold, not just near the surface. Had there been more warm air aloft, we'd get freezing rain. Since the entire atmosphere will be cold, we'll have more snow.
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| Preliminary ice accumulation forecast from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. Areas in red could see a quarter inch of ice, which begins to risk tree, powerline damage. |
You'll wake up to wintry conditions Saturday morning with sleet, freezing rain and snow.
In the south, the day will start with plain rain but go over to mixed precipitation pretty quickly.
Afternoon temperatures will be down in the low 30s in the south, and upper 20s in the north. For an afternoon, those are typical readings for mid-February, not mid-April.
Ugh again!
The general thinking is north of Route 2, we'll get three to five inches of snow and sleet, with just a thin glaze of freezing rain through Saturday night.
The cold push is now looking to be strong enough to push the weather front well south, far enough down that I wouldn't be surprised if the snow and sleet stops and skies just remain cloudy in north of Burlington and St Johnsbury for much of the overnight Saturday night.
Further south, like in the southern Adirondacks, and southern Vermont, there will be more freezing rain, with up to a quarter inch of ice expected. Although surprises are possible, I think snow will amount to two inches or less from central Vermont south.
That's enough to cause the risk of some tree damage and power outages, but not enough to be a disaster like January, 1998. But we'll have to watch this, because some areas are in for more freezing rain on Sunday.
The weather front that will have been suppressed by the cold air from Canada pretty well south of us will start moving back north Sunday as the main, strong parent storm comes closer from the Midwest.
However, the cold air from Canada will put up a huge fight on Sunday and only very, very grudgingly relax its grip. So the new surge of wet air from the south going up and over the cold air here will produce another round of sleet and freezing rain. Some snowfall might start the day, but the thinking is Sunday will be more icy.
I worry about some more tree and power line damage Sunday from ice, but that prospect is still iffy. The precipitation probably won't come down super heavily Sunday, which would be a good thing. Still, it's going to be another thoroughly miserable April day.
Very, very slowly, temperatures will sneak above freezing from south to north Sunday afternoon and night. But the freezing rain might keep going well into the night east of the Green Mountains.
Monday, the worst of the cold air will finally get scoured out by strengthening south winds, though temperatures will only get up to around normal - 50 ish or so.
The problem Monday is, after all the snow and ice and ick Saturday and Sunday, the rain will come down pretty hard, especially during the day and early at night. The combination of all that rain, all that snow and ice melting and warming temperatures will mean quite a bit of runoff.
I think at least minor flooding along a lot of rivers in Vermont, New York and elsewhere in the North Country is a good bet Monday into Tuesday. It could even be more than minor and cause more road closures, flooded basements, etc. than usual. This won't be a Hurricane-Irene type flood disaster, but it's certainly something to take seriously.
I'm pretty sure the National Weather Service will issue a flood watch eventually, but right now they're focusing correctly on the winter weather that will come first.
They're still looking at the possibility of high winds on Monday too, just to add more "joy" to this lousy storm/.
After all that, the weather will remain - heavy sigh - unsettled and colder than normal next week
MISERY REST OF NATION, TOO
As expected, fast moving wildfires broke out yesterday in New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma.
In northwestern Oklahoma, there were multiple fires, one with a fire front nearly 20 miles long. Dozens of people were evacuated ahead of the flames near Woodward, and reports are at least 20 structures were destroyed in the flames.
The fire risk remains very high today, especially in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
Farther north, the blizzard is winding up in the northern and central plains, with South Dakota, much of Nebraska, northwestern Kansas and southern Minnesota most under the gun.
Just ahead of the oncoming blizzard, some thunderstorms producing hail were harassing parts of eastern South Dakota this morning.
This is still expected to be a near record storm with up to 18 inches of new snow propelled by wind gusts of more than 50 mph. You'd be the ultimate fool if you tried to travel through the blizzard zone today through Saturday.
South and east of the blizzard, severe storms and tornadoes still seem like a good bet later today and tonight. Arkansas and parts of the adjacent states surrounding Arkansas seem to be under the greatest threat.
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