|Flowers on my back deck in St. Albans, Vermont enjoy|
some evening sunshine after a thundershower earlier
in the day this past Monday. It's gotten less wet in
Vermont for now, but a soaker is coming.
It's not exactly a drought out there, but I have found myself watering some recently transplanted garden additions quite a bit this past week at my hacienda in St. Albans, Vermont.
Bonus: The mud around the property has dried up, but of course mosquitoes remain a headachy hangover from our very wet June.
Showers and storms have generally detoured around the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont so far this month. July precipitation there is actually running about an inch below normal.
Still, I definitely don't have to worry too much about any kind of impending dry spell. It's going to turn very wet again.
A few days ago, I promised a sharp cool down by today. Hasn't happened yet. It will be a bit cooler today and Sunday, but it turns out the real chilly air doesn't hit until Monday. Clouds and rain will contribute to that unseasonable coolness we expect.
There's dynamic but disorganized storminess that is gradually setting up shop over the eastern Great Lakes and the Northeast for a few days. Things are going to get very active in the northeastern quarter of the nation.
It's the type of mid-summer pattern that can lead to a nasty, rather widespread outbreak of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding in the Northeast.
That looks like it will happen over the next few days, but not so much here in Vermont. We'll be in the sweet spot in which we'll get a generous, soaking rain, and maybe some thunder, but nothing super extreme. The severe weather will be in the southern and eastern Great Lakes and in the mid-Atlantic states today through Monday.
As the wetter pattern sets up, a weak cold front is dropping through northern and central New England with very little fanfare today. That'll make it a few degrees cooler than yesterday but still nice.
Yesterday, Burlington, Vermont just missed reaching 90 degrees, topping out at 89. That means it's quite unlikely we will have any 90 degree days this July at all. It's been a number of years since we've had a July that lacked 90-degree weather.
(Still, even with the chilly days coming up Monday and Tuesday, temperatures for July look like they will come out somewhere close to normal. )
Sunday will be a bit cooler yet as sun fades behind increasing clouds, and the chances of rain really ramp up Sunday night and Monday in Vermont.
The rain might come down hard at times, and you might hear a rumble of thunder.
I doubt the rain will be enough to cause any flooding, but it's still worth watching in case the rain turns out even heavier than forecast.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has put Vermont in a marginal risk zone for flooding during this upcoming wet episode.
This is kind of a weird summer storm system, with a lot of moving parts. That means there's a good chance that adjustments will have to be made in the forecast over the next three day here in Vermont, and basically everywhere in the eastern third of the country.
When things start to dry out midweek, it'll warm back up to near normal temperatures, but we here in the North Country are still going to avoid getting into the real hot air that's been hanging over the middle of the country.
Once again, we will be in the sweet spot: Not too hot, not too cold.