Calm Winter Weather Causing Air Pollution Issues In Vermont

The lovely city of Rutland, Vermont is in a bowl-shaped valley,
which makes it prone to inversion-caused air pollution problems
in the winter. Other Vermont valleys are similary at risk.

It's a very calm week, weather wise in Vermont. Most of us, including me, enjoy this.

Temperatures are moderate, there's no precipitation, and you want to get outside. It's really perfect winter weather.

Or is it?

When it's this calm, inversions often set up in the winter. That's when there's a warmer layer of air aloft which acts as a lid. That keeps pollutants from blowing away. Instead, soot, particulates or whatever accumulate in the air, especially in valleys.

This usually isn't such a problem in the summer. At that time of year, the sun is strong. The sunshine blasts onto the surface of the Earth, including in Vermont valleys. That leads to updrafts, which basically mixes the air, breaks up inversions and dilutes pollution. A lot of that pollution gets caught up in winds aloft, and blows away. Good riddance.

In the winter, the sun is much weaker. There's no blasting of heat to cause updrafts. So the warm air stays in place aloft.  And down in our Vermont valleys our wood stoves, our pellet stoves, our cars and whatever else belches into the air. And it has nowhere to go.

Which is why the National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued an air quality alert for Rutland County until 11 p.m. Friday.

The area around Rutland is notorious for this in the winter. Rutland City, and surrounding towns, are essentially at the bottom of a bowl, surrounded by mountains. So, when there's an inversion, exhaust from all our stuff goes into the air, that pollution just sits there, which everyone around Rutland gets to breathe.

Oh joy!

This pollution is mainly in the form of particulates. These particulates are usually tiny bits of soot. When we breathe that soot, the particulates go into the tiniest passages of our lungs, where they can get stuck.

The level of pollution in valleys like those in Rutland County probably won't majorly hurt young whippersnappers and generally healthy people.  By the way, this problem isn't limited to Rutland County through Friday.

As the National Weather Service notes, other populated Vermont valleys, like in the Barre-Montpelier area, parts of the Connecticut River valley and other areas of Vermont surrounded by mountains, the air isn't going to be so great through Friday

But for people who have health problems, especially those with lung disease, have cardiopulmonary problems or are elderly should stay indoors. For instance, my mother, age 90, has COPD and lives in West Rutland. She needs to stay indoors until this problem goes away.

This problem will go away on Saturday. Some storminess is coming in, which would tend to increase winds and disperse the particulate pollution.

Vermont has a pretty well deserved reputation as being environmentally friendly. But we're far from perfect, and we are completely capable of sinking into air pollution problems.

Vermont's First Winter Storm Watch Of Season

Early forecast call for a pretty big early seasons snowfall Monday afternoon
into Tuesday.  Widespread areas could get six inches or more
(yellow and orange shaded areas of map.)

It's a little early in the season for this, but a winter storm watch is up for much of northern Vermont and northern New York for what looks to become a pretty good sized snowstorm for the season.

Current forecasts call for five to eight inches of new snow from through the Adirondacks and the  northwestern third of Vermont.  Some higher elevations could see a foot of snow.

Those are the areas where the best combination of cold air and lift in the atmosphere.  Further south, the conditions won't be as perfect for snow, and there might be a mix of precipitation as it will be a little warmer there.

Here's the usual caveat: There's still a chance the forecast could be a bust, or at least, the highest snow totals could be in a slightly different place than now predicted. With every storm, computer models change and meteorologists are constantly refining forecasts to fit current reality.

The snow should start Monday afternoon, really pick up Monday night and taper off on Tuesday.  The snow will stick around for a long time, especially for November. It will stay very cold through at least next Saturday, after today's mini-thaw.  The only other brief thawing I see is on Friday, but that won't amount to much or last long.

Today's is just a mini update here.  I'll get into more details Monday morning as the winter storm gets underway.

Frost Advisory In Vermont's Champlain Valley

There's a frost advisory tonight in Vermont's Champlain Valley
Most perennials will be fine, but if you put sensitive plants
outdoors too early, you might have problems. 

This is kind of a late post, but if you do read this, there's a frost advisory up for Vermont's Champlain Valley tonight.

This is not a weird situation for early May in Vermont, but it's worth noting.

You probably noticed today was cloudy and chilly, but it cleared up in the evening. That sets the stage for a frost. A clear sky when the temperature starts out cold means it's really easy for temperatures to fall into frost territory.

For most of us, including gardeners, we shouldn't really worry about this too much.

If your early perennials are blooming - things like daffodils, hyancith, forsythia - don't worry about them. They'll be fine. These plants are equipped to handle weather like this at this time of year.

Also, don't worry about the trees that are starting to leaf out. The tender new leaves can survive a couple hours below freezing. They'll be fine, too.

Vermont's apple crop is probably OK, too. The apple trees haven't totally bloomed yet in the Champlain Valley. And even where they have, the chill won't be long lasting or severe enough to cause much damage.

If you left sensitive plants outside to harden up for the spring. I'm talking about things like tomatoes and that kind of thing, definitely deal with this.  If you're reading this Wednesday evening, bring them in NOW. Right this minute.  If not, they'll probably die.

If you were foolish enough to plant sensitive plants in your garden like tomatoes in a way you can't bring them inside, you're screwed. Most people didn't do this. Don't put stuff like this in your garden until Memorial Day.

If you jumped the gun, encouraged by a couple warm days in April, those sensitive plants will probably die You can try covering them up, but they might or might not survive.

You'll notice the frost advisory is only in effect for the Champlain Valley. The National Weather Service only issue frost advisories in areas where the growing season has begun.

Right now is about the time where we typically get the last frost of the season in the Champlain Valley. Hence the advisory for tonight.

Away from the Champlain Valley, the typical first frost of the season comes later. The growing season  hasn't started yet. So, they haven't started issuing frost advisories or warnings yet. But the rules of thumb I outlined above still apply.

One more note: We are about to enter a long spell of cool, damp, cloudy weather. Outdoor plants won't grow or thrive much under these conditions. So if your outdoor plants don't seem to be doing well, relax.

Any frost we get tonight probably won't hurt them. The plants won't do much while it's cloudy and cool, but they'll survive. When the weather eventually turns sunny and warmer, they'll  be fine.  Just be patient, and they'll spring back to life once we get some warm spring weather

Another Cold Front, Another Severe Threat In Northeast, Including Vermont

Storm over Georgia, Vermont on June 28.
Similar scenes are possible in
Vermont and other areas of the
Northeast today.  

 Sunday afternoon turned out to be a lovely summer day in Vermont after some early rains and rumbles of thunder in central and soutnern sections.

It's back to the storms today for a broad area of the Northeast, including Vermont. A few could be severe. Here we go again.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the target areas for today mainly through the northwestern half to two thirds of New England, most of New York and Pennsylvania and some of the eastern Ohio valley.

There, they're calling it a slight risk of severe weather, which is the second of five alert levels.

This means this outbreak of severe weather in Vermont and surrounding areas will be similar to the past few, including the one that blew through last Thursday.

Most of us will probably get a thunderstorm and some downpours today, but a handful of towns in NOAA's slight risk area, will have it worse, with damaging winds that will knock down trees and power lines.

There were already some strong storms coming off of Lake Erie in far western New York early this morning, so we know the risk is there.

As noted, the biggest threat from today's storms is damaging straight line winds, but large hail could come down in a few spots. There's even a very remote chance of a brief tornado anywhere in the yellow shaded area of the United States map in this post.

Anyone living in the yellow area of this map, including
all of Vermont, has a slight, but real chance of severe
thunderstorms today.  

The timing of the weather front coming in from the west is right. We'll be near the maximum heating of the day, which will add instability to the air this afternoon. There's strong winds aloft and a cold front approaching.

So yeah, a few towns in the Northeast, including Vermont, will get a good damaging blast today.

Much of the rest of us can expect at least some noise and dramatic clouds a good gush of rain. Although, as always, a few areas will miss out on the storms completely.

The Storm Prediction Center says the greatest threat of wind damage is in western New England and New York.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont, in their forecast discussion notes the entire state of Vermont and eastern New York is under threat this afternoon.

 But a fine reading of the computer models suggests that within this region, the highest chances of a a few powerful, severe thunderstorms are in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, and a strip not far from the Canadian border in the far north of New York and Vermont.

Another stronger risk area, the guess goes, is in the Hudson Valley of New York and the southern third of Vermont.

A simulated, computer generated guestimate of what
 the radar will look at aroudn 2p .m. today. Notice
all the thunderstorms heading into Vermont.Add caption

This suggests central Vermont could miss out slightly on the severest storms. But that's uncertain, I will emphasis. Everyone in the region should be aware of threatening weather and listen for severe thunderstorm warnings.

If you get such a warning or see a storm coming, get inside. It can get dangerous out there.

And as in the last chance of severe weather last week, don't even bother going out on the lake or up in the mountains for a hike today. Wait until tomorrow, when it will be cooler, less humid, and storm-free.

For the record, Wednesday will be sunnier, and slightly warmer than Tuesday, with no threat of rain