Monday Vermont Evening Storm Update: High Impacts, Tricky Forecast

Well, that promised November winter storm has arrived in Vermont, at least for most of us as of 6 p.m. Monday night.

Light, but steady snow was falling across northern and central sections, and the roads were definitely bad on the commute home.

I avoided getting hit by the SUV sliding uncontrollably down one Burlington hill, and narrowly missed getting hit by some idiot who was fishtailing because the moron was upset the motorist in front of him was "only" going 25 mph in a 25 mph zone in a snowstorm.

The forecast for the rest of the storm is still on track here in Vermont, but there's still a high bust potential in some parts of the state.

The general outline is the same as I described this morning. The northwestern corner of Vermont and northern New York for that matter appears to be in for a LOT of snow.  The further south and east you go, the more mix of precipitation you get. Plus, the intensity of the precipitation is more iffy south and east than it is north and west.

The trick is, where will this borderline between heavy snow and a mix set up? A variance of just a degree or two in the atmosphere above us could really mess up the forecast. If a little more warm air aloft comes north than expected, some northern parts of Vermont would get less snow than forecast.

If the cold air wins out more, more snow could fall in central and perhaps southern Vermont than anticipated.

Whatever happens, the effects on you and me will be basically the same. Either the ice or the snow will mess up the Tuesday morning commute. In addition, in many areas, the mixed precipitation will change to a burst of relatively heavy snow in many locations around here at the time of the morning commute. It will be lousy.

The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that far northwestern Vermont (Grand Isle and Franklin counties) and northern New York are in for about a foot of snow, since there will be little or no sleet in these areas.  A winter storm warning remains in effect for the northwestern third of Vermont and most of northern New York.

The big bust potential is roughly a 30 or 40-mile wide line centered between Rutland and St. Johnsbury.  There, extra mixed precipitation might cut down on accumulations or extra snow might boost it.  Almost all of Vermont south and east of the winter storm warning is under a winter weather advisory is up.

Because of the mix and lighter precipitation, southern Vermont could get as little as an inch or two of snow and ice accumulation

Whatever happens, the snow will end west to east across the region during the day, leaving us in the upcoming well-advertised record cold air mass.