"Potential" Tropical Storm Is Really Being Hyped

Just one of many potential tracks for Wannabe Isias.  Expect
forecasts to shift around a lot in the coming days.

If I were to believe some media and social media posts, I'd thing a Category 999 hurricane was about to blow Florida out of existence.

Before we got on with this post, some facts to clear up.

I hope you understand that I know that hurricanes only go up to Category 5; there's no such thing a "Category 999."

Category 5 is the worst hurricane you can get.  There is currently no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.   In fact, there are no hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

It's possible a tropical system of some sort could affect Florida over the weekend, but we don't know for sure if that will happen, and if it does, how big a deal it would be.

So here's the non-hype version, as best as I understand it.  If you want more information beyone what I'm about to describe, check out what real live scientists are saying over at the National Hurricane Center. 

The hype you're hearing is prompted by something called "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine." As of this morning, it was causing really crappy weather way out there in the Lesser Antilles, and will probably do the same to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

They haven't given "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" a name yet because it hasn't developed a well defined circulation.  It's just a mass of gusty thunderstorms that overall have some spin, but haven't congealed into a storm yet. But as of early this morning, it was getting close to that level.

When it does (or even if) it gets its act together, it will be named Isaias.  If you're curious, it's pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

As you're probably sick of hearing from me by now, forecasting the strength of direction of any tropical system can get tricky.

It's especially so with Wannabe Isaias.  It's a huge clump of thunderstorms, and where a center eventually forms will determine its path and strength.  Right now, even the folks at National Hurricane Center are throwing up their hands a bit with this one.

But they're giving it a try, because that's what they do.

If Wannabe Isaias gets it act together today, it might get punched down to a wannabe again if it hits the Dominican Republic directly.  The mountains there will screw it up.

If Wannabe Isaias detours around that mountainous island, it could keep getting stronger.

This is where the Florida hype comes in. Wannabe Isaias  could  cause trouble in places like Puerto Rico, the Virgin Island, maybe Cuba or the Bahamas.

Forecasts tracks as of this morning take this thing toward Florida, but remember what I just said: Where the center of Wannabe Isaias eventually establishes itself will determine a lot about its future path.

It could pass south of Florida and go into the Gulf of Mexico.  Maybe it will hit Florida. Or it'll curve north and then east and miss the United States entirely.  Note to Donald Trump: We don't know if Wannabe Isaias will affect Alabama. 

We just don't know any of this for certain yet.  Don't believe anyone who tells you they know for sure where this is going. They don't. At least not yet.  And don't even get me started with questions on whether Wannabe Isaias will affect Vermont and if it does, how so?  Use your Magic 8 ball for that one.

As mentioned above, we also don't know what kind of strength or lack thereof Wannabe Isaias will have.

So here's what you SHOULD do regarding Wannabe Isaias:

1. Continue monitoring the storm, especially if you live in or have interests in the Virgin Islands, Hait, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida.  No need for any kind of panic, by the way.

2. It's early in the hurricane season.  If you live in hurricane prone areas, or flood prone areas, now is a great time to pop down to Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever to pick up your hurricane preparedness supplies. This is whether or not Wannabe Isaias amounts to anything. Wear your mask  into the stores, please!

3. Have a plan in case Wannabe Isaias or any other tropical storm or hurricane comes along.  If told to evacuate, where would you go?  Make it easy to grab important documents and medications and such if you have to go.  Think about what you would do with pets.  Add in some extra planning because of this Covid pandemic.

4.  If this thing does get close to you and the National Hurricane Center and local emergency managers start barking orders, like prepare or even evacuate, do what they say. It'll make it easier on everyone. Including yourselves.

Will Vermont See A Rare 100 Degree Day Today?

Will it get to 100 degrees today in Burlington, Vermont?

As we said yesterday, today is going to be terribly hot across Vermont and surrounding areas.  Pretty much everybody will be in the 90s, and the whole state is under a heat advisory, except the extreme northeast corner of the state.

The speculation has started on this one: Will Burlington, Vermont reach a rare 100 degrees today?

It's only been 100 degrees in Burlington four times since they started keeping track of this stuff in the late 1800s.

Those times were:

100 degrees, July 3, 1911
101 degrees, August 11,1944
100 degrees June 19, 1995
100 degrees July 14, 1995.

Will today join this list?

The National Weather Service in South Burlington decided to pull the trigger and predict a high of 100 degrees today.  However, meteorologists at the NWS office note that some factors might prevent us from getting that hot.

It might "only" get to between 97 and 99 degrees.

Following are the factors that would encourage a reading of 100 degrees and factors that argue against it.

FOR 100 DEGREES

Computer forecast models that show a good layer of the atmosphere can support such temperatures down here near the ground.

Southwest winds that can compress the air coming down the slopes of the Adirondacks, thereby heating the air more than it would otherwise.

The air will mix well in the lower several thousand feet of the atmosphere. That would bring the humidity down a bit.  If the humidity is lower, then it can get hotter.

There should be a lot of sun this afternoon, which obviously encourages heating.

It's been dry.  Wet ground adds humidity to the air, and as noted, actual temperatures have a harder time reaching their maximum temperature with higher humidity.  All four cases in which it was 100 degrees in Burlington came during dry periods, like the one we're in.

AGAINST 100 DEGREES

Forecast models this morning indicate the airmass will be marginally cooler than forecasts issued yesterday, but by all means remain hot.

A dying mass of showers and thunderstorms in southern Quebec early this morning was keeping clouds across northern Vermont.   If clearing is delayed later this morning, it could prevent temperatures today from maxing out at their highest potential.

Will the southwest winds pick up just enough influence from Lake Champlain to cool things to just below 100 degrees?

It's also simply damn hard for temperatures to get to 100 degrees. Everything has to come together perfectly.  A few rogue fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon could easily kill chances of it getting to 100 degrees.

BEYOND TODAY

There are encouraging signs that it might stay as warm for the next week or so as initially thought.  There's going to be an ahhhhh factor here and there over the coming days.

Tonight will humid and stuffy as hell ahead of an oncoming cold front. To make sleeping more difficult, this cold front is likely to bring some scattered showers and storms overnight, especially north and west.

Storms ahead of this cold front will likely be severe this afternoon and evening across southern Ontario and western New York, but will weaken as they move into Vermont.

The actual cooler air lags well behind the cold front, so Monday will still be very warm and kind of humid, with temperatures in the 80s to possibly near 90.

Then we get into the better weather.  Dew points, a measure of how comfortably or uncomfortably humid it is out there, are expected to drop into the low 50s Tuesday.

That's the lowest they've been in weeks and definitely in the comfortable zone.

It'll probably turn vaguely humid midweek but nothing extraordinary.  The core of the nation's heat will be centered further west for awhile, temperatures will probably stay pretty close to normal for the next week or so after today's heat.

Fay Was A Bust; Back To Praying For Random Showers

"The Wrath Of Fay" Skies over St. Albans, Vermont around 6:30 this
morning as the center of what was Fay was probably entering
southwest Vermont. As you can tell, the storm was a bust
for Vermont.  By the way wind gusts at the time this
photo was taken were "roaring" in the um, 10-15 mph range.

As you can tell by going outside, Tropical Storm Fay was a bust in Vermont, dropping only a little rain and not the nice soaking downpours we'd hoped for.

Fay's main rain band went further west than expected, into central New York, and weakened even more rapidly than originally thought as it trekked up New York's Hudson River Valley.  Dry air also got sucked into the system from the west, cutting down on the rainfall.

By the time it reached Albany, Fay was just a diffuse remnant low, spewing out a few lame northbound showers in Vermont.

This band of rain at least is affecting pretty much all of Vermont with briefly moderate rains in some spots. It won't be huge, but we'll take any raindrop we can get at this point. .

On with the drought, I guess.

Sure, there are more rain chances, but we're back to the routine we've since May: Just hoping random showers might hit your own garden.  At least we won't go days on end without at least getting some risk of rain, so there's that. And it's a little cooler.

Yesterday in Burlington was the fifth day this year of 95 degree or warmer weather. The record for an entire year is nine.  We've also had 12 days of 90 degree or hotter weather. We're still quite a ways from the record of 26 in a single year, which is good.

It also looks like more 90 degree weather is unlikely for several days at least. We'll deal with lot of warmth and humidity and that sort of ickiness, but nothing extreme.

There will be severa chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days, so I'm thinking almost everyone will get a little rain over the next week or so.

Now that Fay went pffft, we're left with a humid, tropical air mass.  That disturbance coming in from the west I've been talking about over the past couple of days is still moving into the picture today, so more showers and scattered thunderstorms will blossom this afternoon and evening.

A few lucky people will get some good downpours with these today.  A very few unlucky people are at risk for a severe storm.  A couple of them could produce microbursts, which would bring local damaging winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe weather, the lowest of five risk levels.

More of the same is due all week, though some days will be drier than others. Some days will have a pretty good chance of showers and storms, other days, not so much. It all depends on the timing of these little summertime weather disturbances coming at us in this generally warm, humid west to southwest air flow over us.

Tropical Storm Fay did manage to cause a little trouble in some of the Mid-Atlantic States.  It made landfall a little north of Atlantic City, New Jersey on Friday with its packet of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Several towns in and around New Jersey reported flooding problems.  Gusty coastal winds brought down some trees and power lines.  This was certainly no mega disaster, but it was an inconvenience.

Fay was also the earliest "F" storm on record.

Nice Fourth Of July Weekend In Vermont, But Social Distance, Please

A steamy summer day last year, looking out toward the Adirondacks
from South Burlington, Vermont. It looks like we'll have a lot
more that very warm to hot, humid air in the upcoming week

One of the many disappointing things about this whole, long cornona virus nightmare is we really can't gather and large groups to celebrate.

I think most Fourth of July parades in Vermont are canceled.  I don't know about fireworks displays, but it's certainly not a good idea to crowd together to watch the spectacle.

Keep those face masks on if you're near people, folks, and keep that six foot social distancing thing going.

If things were normal, the weather this holiday weekend in Vermont would be pretty damn great for big Independence Day parties. Skies will be at least partly sunny during the day, it'll be warm but not too hot, and humidity will only be somewhat noticeable.

Today, Friday, will be the "worst" day of the holiday weekend. Many of us in Vermont are starting out humid and murky and foggy and icky.  The clouds will lift some during the day as a weak cold front that was approaching us yesterday moves south and west toward New York State and southern New England and then washes out.

The front should have enough kick to produce a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly south and west of Interstate 89.  (A rogue shower or two could still form northeast of the Interstate, but the chances are lower).

It'll turn slightly less humid by tonight and into the weekend as a bit of drier air bleeds south from Quebec.

Saturday, Independence Day, might start out a bit murky like today, but the sun will blast through, leaving a partly to mostly sunny afternoon, with highs in the 80-85 degree range, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

Sunday looks like it will bring more of the same, though it will be a couple degrees warmer.  A minor disturbance might create a pop up thunderstorm or two near the International Border toward evening.

Yesterday, in Burlington, it got up to 92 degrees, making it the tenth day so far this year it has gotten to or above 90 degrees.  That's double the entire yearly average of five such days.

Plus, it looks we have a good shot at a couple of more 90s later in the week as we become engulfed in a the edge of a large dome of heat setting up for most of the continental United States.

It'll be hot and humid and awful during the second half of the week, but believe it or not, we won't be seeing the worst of it.

As mentioned yesterday, disturbances will be coming in from the northwest, causing brief relief in the form of almost daily scattered showers and storms.

It's also looking like the most intense and long lasting heat will settle in to the Plains and Midwest through mid-month at least.  Here in northern New England, it pretty much looks like we will be warmer and more humid than average through mid-month, but at least we have a few chances of getting brief minor breaks from the heat and humidity.

But yeah, get ready for another hot spell like we had in late June, unfortunately.

Vermont Temperatures In June Were A Roller Coaster

Story of June, 2020. In a dry month, this thunderstorm teased
by poking above the treeline behind my St. Albans, Vermont house
then quickly scooted away, making sure I didn't get
any needed rain. Photo taken June 23.

Most of the time, I rate June and September in Vermont as the mellowest times of the year in the weather department.

True, months like June can have some pretty impressive rainfalls, floods and severe storms. But the two months I mention aren't generally known for temperature extremes, or big swings from one day or week to the next.

This June, though, was a roller coaster for sure.

In the first half of the month there were a couple days setting date records for the chilliest high temperatures - reaching only the 50s.

By the second half of the month, we were in a record heat wave.

Burlington's swings were common for what the state saw in June. We awoke to temperatures in the 30s on June 1, with frost in the cold spots. By the 5th, it was 90 degrees.  On the 13th, high temperatures were only in the 50s. By the 18th, Burlington was starting its June record breaking six consecutive days in the 90s.

Also in Burlington, there was very little rain all month, until the last two days, when 1.14 fell.

Overall in Burlington, the average temperatures for the month worked out to 69.0 degrees. That was 3.1 degrees above normal and enough to make June the tenth warmest on record.

June's temperature was closer to normal in towns away from the Champlain Valley, I think mostly because unlike the Champlain Valley, partial clouds and daily scattered thunderstorms tempered that long heat wave a little over the Green Mountains and points east.

So far this year, we've had nine days at or above 90 degrees in Burlington. Average for an entire year is five, so were off to a fast start in the hot weather department.

Pretty much everyone in Vermont was dry in June. Despite the rainfall in the last two days of the month, Burlington ended with only 1.88 inches of precipitation for June, which is right around half of normal.

Most other places in Vermont had similar precipitation deficits. An exception was Montpelier, which was lucky enough to be in the path of several thunderstorms during the month. They were only a third of an inch shy in rainfall, with a June total of 3.47 inches.

As always, what the next month will bring could be anything. However, there is a pretty remarkable, but not universal consensus that July will be hotter than average in New England. The first few days of the month, at least, look to be warmer than average.

Long range forecasts have been putting us in a moderate risk of a heat wave during the second week of July. We'll see how that pans out.

It could have been worse.  Miami, Florida just endured more than six days in which the heat index was 90 or more. This includes every hour during that period, including nights. Ugh!

Caribbean Dust, And New England The New Miami-Dade

Same two views on the island of St Barthelemy, before
the dust, top, and during the current outbreak of
Sarahan dust.  Photos by Mirco Ferro, via Twitter

We've got a this n' that post for you today, as the weather always fascinates.  Or at least gets weird pretty often.

So let's get started

SAHARA DUST

Time to head to a nice Caribbean island to enjoy the dust storms.

Wait, what?

I'm exaggerating when I'm calling the current weather in the tropical Atlantic a dust storm, but it is pretty damn dusty down there.

A huge plume of dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa has blown westward and is crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

Visibility on some islands was down to three miles or so, a sharp contrast to the deep blue skies and long views that residents and vacationers are accustomed to.

The dust will reach the U.S. Gulf Coast this week, causing hazy skies, beautiful sunrises and sunsets and maybe suppressing thunderstorms.

This cloud of dust from the Sahara desert actually isn't all that weird. These plumes of dust cross the Atlantic frequently from late spring to early fall.  This episode is just more intense than usual. Some observers are saying this plume is the thickest in five decades.

In one important respect, the dust clouds are a good thing, even if it does reduce visibility and hurt people with pre-existing respiratory problems.

The dust clouds suppress the thunderstorms needed to give birth to tropical storms and hurricanes. Such dangerous storms are much less likely when there is a plume of Sahara dust over the Atlantic.

It's early in the hurricane season now, so there probably wouldn't have been any tropical storms anyway this week, but if more dust clouds form and move out over the Atlantic, there's a chance it could reduce what is expected to be a busy hurricane season.

Don't count on that, though. Just because there's a big cloud of dust now doesn't mean it will keep happening with the same intensity all summer. and fall.  This just happens to be a random big outburst.

FLORIDA MOVES NORTH

Tropical style thunderstorm erupting Satiurday in Florida  oops
I mean Vermont. Things are a bit topsy turvy

The weather in New England has consistently been just like what you'd expect in Florida during the summer the past few days.

Heat waves hit New England almost every summer, of course. But this one has taken on the characteristics of a Florida summer.

In the Deep South, there are typically few major weather systems coming through in the summer. Cold fronts from Canada don't make it that far south, and no big storm systems come across the country to stir up the weather.  

Which means local conditions rule the roost when it comes to the weather.

In Florida's hot, humid weather sea breezes push inland, and form little weather fronts separating the marine air from the hotter conditions over land. These little weather fronts create just enough lift for daily thunderstorms in Florida during the summer.

Meanwhile, local updrafts  create more thunderstorms over interiror Florida.

Up here in New England, we're usually far enough north so that the usual roughly west to east flow of weather systems continues.  A cold front will come through with a burst of thunderstorms, followed by coolish, dry sunny weather, then a bout of hot, humid conditions, followed by another cold front, rinse and repeat.

You know the drill.

The past several days, and today, are featuring a pattern much more like Florida. There's no weather systems moving through, just a dome of hot, humid air over New England and southeastern Canada.

Which means New England is temporarily the new Miami-Dade. One of those sea breeze fronts created scattered thunderstorms a little inland from the coast in Massachusetts yesterday.

Meanwhile, local updrafts continued the daily rounds of scattered storms in interior New England. Unlike Florida, we have mountains, which are more than enough to create the initial updrafts to create those slow moving thundersetorms. They pop up, dump a big downpour on a small area, then dissipate. Then a few more form and do the same thing until the sun sets.

We'll finally revert back to typical northern weather patterns starting Tuesday.  The west to east flow of systems will resume.  A couple weak cold fronts will come through, creating a better chance of showers and storms later Tuesday and Wednesday.

The heat will then diminish, at least for awhile, starting at the end of the week.

Speaking of heat, Burlington has a shot of tying the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June. The record is seven, set in 1949.

We've had five such days this June, and we are on track to tie the 1949 record. High temperatures in Burlington are expected to reach 90 degrees today and tomorrow.

"Pulse" Storms Make For Gorgeous Summer Skies

A small, isolated storm formed over the Adirondacks around
sunset last evening, as seen looking toward the southwest
from St. Albans, Vermont. 

One of the many things I like about summer is the sky is far more interesting and beautiful than in the winter.

Summer is the time of year when scattered showers and thunderstorms are more likely, without those dreary, boring overcast skies that come in the colder seasons.

Such was the case last evening when isolated thunderstorms erupted over mountainous terrain of northern Vermont and the Adirondacks of New York.

These dramatic looking, but usually harmless and brief thunderstorms often form during these hot, humid days.

There's really no weather systems to create updrafts that would form organized lines of clusters of long lasting storms.    But the atmosphere in these conditions is primed for storms, if only there were a trigger.

That trigger is the mountains. The strong June sun helps creates updrafts that also help cause light local breezes.  If things line up just right, one of these breezes hits a mountain slope and is forced to rise.

That breeze going up the side of a mountain can be just enough to trigger a storm.  That upslope breeze becomes a rapidly rising column of air, which forms almost immediately into a towering thunderstorm, the kind we saw here and there last evening. They go from nothing to immense, often in just minutes

Since these clouds are so tall, they can be seen from very far away. People in the Burlington area saw a gorgeous white tower erupt to the northeast early Friday evening. That storm was near Greensboro, almost 50 miles away as the crow flies.

Beautiful isolated storm last evening in
northern Vermont. Photo via Twitter
by Charlie of Mystery Springs
@SlowWaterMvmnt

Unlike in some hot spells, when haze obscures the best views, the skies Friday were more clear, making the beautiful storms more striking.  They were isolated, so looking east, the low angle sun turned the clouds brilliant white, surrounded by a deep blue background.

Some lucky bastard up near Greensboro was probably treated to a brief downpour for their garden, and maybe a lightning strike or two.

These so-called "pulse" storms die pretty much as fast as they form.  Remember, there's no real weather system, or cold front, or boundary to continue the updraft.

Once they move beyond that mountain that caused the initial updraft in the first place, the storm collapses. The process from initiation to dissipation can take less than an hour.

I did say these pulse storms are usually harmless. But there is one moment - when they're dying - when they can become momentarily dangerous.  The storm collapses, often in a very localized gush of wind and heavy rain.

This collapse could become a very local microburst, in which wind is strong enough to cause damage in a very small area.  One end of a street might have fallen trees from this type, while a mile away, there was just a gentle breeze.

Timing out these collapses is hard, and since they're so local and quick, they're often over and done with by the time the National Weather Service can issue a storm warning.

On some occasions, a pulse storm can keep forming in the same location all afternoon and evening, and just not move. In those cases, you can get a small area of dangerous flash flooding while immediate surrounding areas remain dry.

These two hazards only sometimes happen. More often than not, a pulse storm will quickly collapse and die with no danger involved. That's why they're called pulse storms. They quickly form, then quickly fade. It was just a quick pulse.

After we lost the Greensboro storm last evening, a couple others formed in the Adirondacks, contributing to a gorgeous sunset as the orange light lit up the towering clouds to our west and south.

If you missed these beautiful storms last night, not to worry. The weather pattern is kind of stuck in this hot, humid, still and featureless set up.  This will favor more scattered, slow moving and brief "pulse" storms today, Sunday and Monday.

They tend to start forming in the early to mid afternoon on these hot days, and fade with the setting sun.  The storms tend to avoid large valleys, so we in the dusty Champlain Valley will just be bystanders, begging in vain for just a little rain from these brief showers.

A weak cold front will approach us during the upcoming mid to late week.  That will provide enough forcing for more sustained, and somewhat more widespread showers and storms starting perhaps on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

A Little Rain Came Today, Still Could Use A Soaker

Before this morning's rain, we had a breezy, summery evening
Wednesday in St. Albans, Vermont.

It was nice to wake up in St. Albans, Vermont today to the sound of some morning showers moving through. It wasn't anything too heavy, but enough that for once I probably don't have to irrigate the gardens today.

There is a shot at a little more rain as a cold front comes through around early to mid afternoon, but it will probably be hit and miss.

It continues to be drier than it should be for June.  As of midnight, Burlington has had only a quarter inch of rain so far this month, which is an inch below normal.

It hadn't really rained in Burlington yet  today as of 7 a.m., but some showers looked like they would go through that neck of the woods.

I mentioned a threat of severe thunderstorms today in Vermont, and I suppose that might happen here and there, but there won't be anything widespread.  Depending upon how much sun breaks out after the early showers, there might be enough instability to trigger some pretty good, but spotty storms.

This morning's showers might have stabilized the air a bit, which would - maybe - lower the already relatively low chance of severe storms.

If the rambunctious storms do develop, it would come mostly between noon and 5 p.m, earliest in New York and the Champlain Valley.  The best chance of severe storms would probably be in eastern Vermont during the mid to perhaps late afternoon.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center as of early this morning had all of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms.  That's the lowest of five alert levels. It means there's a possibility of isolated severe storms, but they'd be limited in duration and coverage.

After today, there doesn't appear to be much chance of more rain for several days.  Another cold front Friday afternoon will probably set off a smattering of showers, but don't look for anything major.

A storm in the upper atmosphere is likely to set up somewhere in the eastern United States over the weekend. At this point,  it looks like it will be too far south to give Vermont much precipitation.  There's always the chance it could pull a surprise and set up further north, but for now, the heavy rain associated with that system looks like it will hit places like Virginia and North Carolina.

So drink up today's water from the sky, dear garden plants.  Looks like I'll be attacking you with the hose in the coming days.

May Roller Coaster Continues Into June

As we well know, May's weather in Vermont was a dizzying rollercoaster of cold, heat, snow and drought.

Summery sky over St.Albans, Vermont Thursday evening.  We're still
getting ups and downs in the weather, but we still need rain. 

It seems the up and down pattern is continuing into June.  The month opened with snow on Vermont's highest peaks, followed by frost in many valleys. Wednesday afternoon was chilly, followed by a very warm and relatively humid Thursday. 

This will go on: Very warm today, cool again over the weekend and warm again next week. The only consistency will be the continued, troubling relative lack of rain. 

We're getting more into summer now, so the peaks and valleys of variable weather are definitely getting less dramatic. 

The weekend cool wave will be similar to last Sunday's but much milder. It won't involve any snow or frost. You might need a sweater, but not a parka. The warmth today and next week at this point doesn't look so extreme either. Maybe 80s. 

The problem, as noted, is the lack of rain. The U.S. Drought Monitor is now declaring northern New York and northwestern Vermont as "abnormally dry," just a step below drought. 

No soaking rains are anticipated.  There might be some isolated thundershowers this afternoon, but the overwhelming majority of us won't get any rain.  Most of us DO have a good shot at getting some showers late tonight and Saturday, but most of us will only receive a quarter inch of rain or less. 

Soon to be born again Tropical Storm Cristobal is headed toward the Gulf Coast and sometimes the remnants of such systems give us a good shot of rain.  It doesn't look like that will happen with Cristobal. It'll make a beeline for the Great Lakes and avoid us next week. leaving us under dry high pressure. 

Long range forecasts into the second and third week of the month also don't hold out much hope for some nice soakers. Just a continued up and down trend in temperatures.

I guess we'll just have to keep watering the gardens and hope the soil moisture holds out for awhile for farmers. 

After A Horrendous Start, U.S. Tornado Season Fizzles

Tornado touching down in Iowa on Saturday. Despite this one,
the count of May tornadoes in the United States is well
below average, which is a rare bit of good weather news.

The United States has caught a break this month in one respect, anyway.

After a horrible March and April in which tornadoes killed no fewer than 53 people, and an April with a  way above average 350 or so tornadoes, things have quieted down markedly.

May and to a certain extent June are the peak tornado months, but May so far has been rather tame in that department.  

As of May 19, there had been just 47 tornadoes, with one death reported.  Since then, a few more tornadoes have spun up, but we are going to fall well short of the average of very roughly 300 May tornadoes.

Falling short in this regard is a good thing indeed!

Saturday was a relatively busy day with initial reports of 26 twisters to add to the 47 this month. But forecasts call for few if any real outbreaks of severe weather for the next several days.

The jet stream, which drives powerful parent storms that can spin off swarms of tornadoes this time of year, has retreated mostly north to near the U.S/Canadian border, robbing the Great Plains and Midwest of the proper conditions for a big outbreak.

Instead, there are regional outbreaks of rough weather caused by local conditions, such as a weak cold front interacting with humid air, or a clash of dry air and wet air in places like Texas.

One of the places that could conceivably get some severe weather is up her in northern New England late in the week, but even that prospect is quite iffy. Depending on the timing of a cold front which will push into some very warm, humid air that will be over us, some strong thunderstorms might develop.

But things will have to work out perfectly for that to happen, and in any event, a tornado is super unlikely with any strong storms we get toward the end of the week

Of course, tornadoes are not the only warm season weather hazard we need to worry about. Sluggish, slow moving storms that aren't favorable for tornadoes often dump boatloads of heavy rain, leading to flash flooding. We're still seeing plenty of that in various places, including Michigan, Florida and Nebraska, among others.

Also, NOAA says this year could see a very busy hurricane season because ocean and atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic favor a lot of tropical storm development in the coming several months.

Mount St. Helens Blew Up 40 Years Ago This Week

Mount St. Helens erupting in May, 1980. At this point in the photo, the entire
north side of the volcano is falling away in a massive landslide
as the ash cloud just begins to rocket upward and laterally. 

This isn't a weather or climate story per se, but it is related.

People in Washington State are this week marking the 40th anniversary of the dramatic eruption of Mount St. Helens.  

It was the worst volcanic eruption on record in the continental United States, killing 57 people.

As the Seattle Times notes, the north flank of the volcano collapsed in an enormous landslide that buried 23 square miles of a river valley to an average depth of 150 feet. The blast sent rocks and a superheate ash cloud that toppled 230 square miles of forest in just three minutes.

Large swaths of a Washington State went dark as night under the immense ash cloud.

The blast had some effects on the skies around the nation for days afterwards.  I remember the ash cloud a few days after the eruption turning the May blue sky over Vermont a sickly slate gray.  The setting sun didn't seem to hit the horizon. Instead, it faded to nothing in the haze as the sun sank low in the west.

As dramatic and huge as this eruption was, it was actually too small in the grand scheme of things to actually affect worldwide weather and climate to any noticeable degree.  Or even that week here in Vermont. As the ash dimmed the skies over Vermont, daytime temperatures the week after the Mount St. Helens eruption rose into the 70s and 80s.

Large volcanic eruptions - much bigger than Mount St. Helens - can belch so much ash and soot into the air that it circles the globe and dims the sun, temporarily cooling the surface of the Earth.

One relatively recent example of this was Mount Pinatubo, which erupted in the Philippines in 1991. It pumped enough gunk into the upper atmosphere to briefly stop the upward trend in global warming around 1992.

A more dramatic example was Mount Tambora in what is now Indonesia back in 1815.  That massive volcano is thought to have created the "Year Without A Summer" in 1816. It caused global cooling, with some examples of that in Vermont. There was a June snowstorm that year, and hard frosts and freezes in July and August.

The effects of these massive eruptions on climate tend to last only a couple years as the ash particles from these volcanos slowly fall out of the atmosphere.

Cold Snap To Be A Geeky Experiment, Anyway

Look closely and you can see the snowflakes coming down on my
St. Albans, Vermont gardens this morning. These poor flowers are
in for more snow and freezes over the next couple of days. 

While the cold and snow hitting the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend is undoubtedly a huge bummer, I guess you can look at a rather dim bright side.

It's an experiment in a way for weather and garden geeks.

On Thursday evening, you could literally see the middle and upper atmosphere cooling over Vermont, if you knew what to look for. The sun had heated the surface to a temperature of near 60 degrees, just a tad cool for this time of year.

As the upper atmosphere cooled, some billowing clouds appeared. Warm air rises, especially if the air above is really cold. That forms those billowing clouds.

The air was quite dry last evening, , so it was difficult to form showers. But eventually, some rain came from one good sized cloud over St. Albans, Vermont where I live.

The air was dry enough so that the rain evaporated on the way down, so there was no precipitation where I stood.  But that evaporated rain cooled the air and helped bring the increasingly chilly air to the surface. Suddenly west winds from this "storm" gusted to about 30 mph and the air suddenly got dramatically chillier.

Web cam from this morning shows some snow on the ground
in high elevation Buels Gore, Vermont, along Route 17.

The cold spell was on, and it would only intensify overnight, and really get going tonight and Saturday, as forecasts have consistently indicated.

It briefly snowed this morning at my place, and I've seen photos of a dusting to a little over an inch of new snow in some high spots in Vermont this morning.

Another interesting thing to watch among weather geeks is what happens when a storm tonight gets going near New York City and intensifies as it moves along the southern New England coast and into the Gulf of Maine.

How much snow will the storm throw to its north and west?   It's hard to accumulate snow in May, but since much of the precipitation will be at night, there's no sunlight coming through the clouds to warm things up just a little.

Forecasts for snow in the central New England highlands, like the Berkshires, Monadnocks of New Hampshire, the far southern Green Mountains and the Catskills of New York have been cut back a little. Most of those areas are expected to get two inches or less of snow.

That wouldn't make it a historic May snow, but still impressive. Also, there's still room for surprises. That is, if the snow comes down harder than expected. We'll see.

Here in Vermont, from the Green Mountains eastward, a lot of places could get two or three inches of snow, especially in elevations of 1,000 feet or more. It's impressive that the National Weather Service is still calling for light accumulations of less than an inch all the way down to the floor of the Champlain Valley.

The huge expanse of dark blue in the middle of the nation on the
National Weather Service map this morning are freeze warnings.
That's an immense area to be under risk. Lighter blues are
mostly frost advisories. Note the winter weather advisory
in northern Maine. 

Another geeky thing to watch is how the snow showers play out Saturday afternoon and early evening. The atmosphere several thousand feet up will be at record cold levels for May.  The sun this time of year is strong, so that's a recipe for some real atmospheric instability.

Will that yield some gusty rain and snow showers, maybe even briefly heavy?

Don't be surprised to find a few heavy snow squalls, with new, brief snow accumulations. If you get a snow squall, you'll get a dusting to an inch of snow, which will likely quickly melt after the squall passes.

With these snow squalls, temperatures could get interesting.  "High" temperatures Saturday will be within a few degrees of 40, but snow squalls will briefly bring frigid air to the surface.  You could momentarily see temperatures drop to near 32 degrees in snow squalls, even in the valleys.

Whether and how many snow squalls form depends at least partly on the amount of cloud cover and the amount of sun that can sneak between the clouds.  In any event it's going to be a windy, raw day, much like you'd expect in early March.

For people who are into stats and climatology, it will be fun to see how many record lows are broken. A few cities in the Great Lakes and Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast, might experience all time record lows for May.

During the day Saturday, some record low high temperatures are in jeopardy, too, all the way from Maine to Texas.

Finally, there's the plant life out there. Not just here but in an immense area affected by the cold snap from South Dakota to Georgia to New York and New England. All these areas are under freeze warnings, or at least frost advisories.

Unfortunately, this cold snap has the potential for being a multi-million dollar disaster for orchardists and farmers in a huge area of the nation, especially east of the Mississippi and from the Carolinas north.

Here in Vermont, it will remain much colder than  normal through Thursday morning.  From Sunday onward, it won't be as cold as Saturday will be, but still far chillier than average for May.

And there's the freeze issues.  I had a bit of ice on the ground at my house earlier this morning in St. Albans, Vermont, followed by a snow shower.  There's a good chance or likelihood of frosts and freezes nightly through this coming Thursday morning. Here in St. Albans and elsewhere in Vermont, we could end up with seven consecutive mornings with readings of 32 or lower. In May!

At least it still looks like this won't last forever. Forecasts still call for a pattern change which would bring milder air in.  Definitely no promises on this one, but I did see one computer model with something interesting: Tomorrow, highs will be near 40 in Vermont. This forecast model calls for highs near 80 degrees exactly one week later.

I'm not buying that model, but it will be much better outside a week from now. I promise.

Another Big Interruption To Spring For Us Suffering Vermonters (And Many Others)

The sky looked summery and the trees were greening up in the warm
sunshine in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday, but spring is about
to go into another chilly stall. 

It seemed like spring really, finally hit its stride the past few days in Vermont.

Sunshine and warmth over the weekend had the trees racing to green up. Flowers bloomed, lawns got their first mowing and people ventured out in shorts and t-shirts.

It made it all the way up to 76 degrees in Burlington on Sunday, making it the warmest day since last September 23.

There was even lightning visible to the north last night, a sign that summer would like to approach. And yet......    

Vermont weather always finds a way to disappoint, and the upcoming trends do look kind of bleak. Let's just say I hope you didn't get too overenthusiastic getting your garden plants in.

As has happened frequently since mid-April, the forces of winter want to make another push.  Hopefully, this will be winter's last stand.

It'll certainly be cooler this week, startind today.  This week's temperatures will be five to 10 degrees below average, which means highs in the 50s for the most part and lows in the 30s, with risks of frosts on a couple nights between now and Thursday.

Then it manages to get worse, as forecasts now indicate. An odd mass of Arctic air will plunge south, putting the northeastern third of the United States at least into some really cold temperatures.

We can blame something call cross-polar flow. The weather pattern is orienting itself so that a batch of cold air from northern Siberia is going and over the North Pole, then southward across eastern Canada into the United States.

Spring blooms enjoy some warm evening sunshine Sundau im
St. Albans, Vermont.  These same flowers will be shivering
in the cold over the next 10 days or so. 

This type of thing happens occasionally in the winter, giving us some of our deepest cold spells. But cross-polar flow is almost unheard of for May, so this is something.

On forecast maps, this looks like a giant blue and purple bowling ball of cold air hitting a strike on the Northeast.

As dire as that sounds, this probably won't be the worst May cold snap on record. But it will be uncomfortably chilly.

If you're a gardeners, you'll want to be on frost alert for the next ten days or so. Not every night will bring a freeze, but pay attention to forecasts daily, and protect those early plants.

It wont be just us that's affected.

With spring well under way, there's a widespread risk of damaging frost and freezes across the Great Lakes states and across the Northeast and all the way down into the South. I anticipate a lot of crop and fruit orchard damage in these areas by this time next week.

Since the worst of this is a good five days away, teasing out precisely how this will play out. We know it's going to be awfully cold for this time of year. But how cold? And will it snow?

Here in Vermont, we might have quite a few clouds, some wind and showers of rain and snow through most of this upcoming cold wave.  In a way, that would be good. If we get a night during the cold snap that's clear and calm, temperatures would really bottom out and the freeze would be all the more damaging.

That might happen during this, but the trends in the forecast so far favor clouds and wind.

There's the risk of late season snows, too, but at this point, it's not looking like much. (But that could change if a coastal storm really gets going. That's possible early next week, but no likely.

This will be a long lasting cold wave, too.  It won't start to warm up until the middle or end of next week.

Another concern I have is how dry it is out there, especially in the Champlain Valley. Drier conditions make it easier for temperatures to really bottom out at night.  Wet ground adds humidity to the air, and that helps keep temperatures up a little bit.

You don't want to put hoses, sprinklers and irrigation out yet, either. Freezing temperatures could damage all that. So watering gardens is difficult for the time being.

Even without the cold in the forecast, we could use some rain.  Deep soil moisture is still OK, but the surface is dusty as hell. No soaking rains are in the forecast for the next week or so.  Just scattered light rain and snow showers that won't amount to much.

As much as we all like spring sunshine, it would be nice if we got into a wetter and warmer pattern during the second half of this month. We have no way of knowing whether it will do that just yet, so for now, ugh, bundle up.

A Chilly Vermont April? Will May Follow Suit?

Snow in the air in St. Albans Vermont on April 17. As you
probably know, April was on the chilly side and we have
the stats to prove it. 

The numbers for Vermont's April weather are in, and to nobody's surprise it was a chilly month.

Despite a relatively warm start, the month was between two and four degrees cooler than average over most of Vermont. Burlington was a little "warmer" as the mean temperature of 43.4 degrees was just 1.4 degrees cooler than average.

None of this chill came close to breaking records. We never came close to the frigid levels of the early 1970s, for instance.

It was notable how there were never any real spikes in temperature to interrupt last month's coolness. The warmest it ever got in Burlington was 67 degrees, which was the lowest April maximum since the peak of 64 degrees in April, 1995, which was also a much cooler than normal April.

The chill in the second half of the month was persistent, but not extreme. Every day except one from April 15 onward in Burlington was cooler than normal.  But the coldest in ever got in Burlington during the month was 26 degrees, which is kind of a warm reading for the so called coldest night in April.

April rainfall was generous in Vermont, with the notable exception of the Champlain Valley. Places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Springfield were roughly a half inch to nearly an inch of rain wetter than average.

Burlington, though, only had 1.84 inches of rain in April, which is right around an inch on the dry side. I can attest to the dry soil conditions in the Champlain Valley. My gardens have been on the dusty side lately, and last night's rain really didn't amount to much.

Despite several high elevation snows, the Champlain Valley escaped any real accumulations. The total snowfall for the month in Burlington came to a very underwhelming 0.1 inches. That will very likely lead to a below average snow season in the Champlain Valley.

I suppose there could be a rare late season snowstorm in May, but likely not. So the snowfall for the winter o 2019-20 in Burlington will probably work out to 69.6 inches, which is about a foot below normal.

As always, I'm reluctant to forecast how the new month will turn out. However, signals are pretty strong that we will continue to be mostly colder than normal in Vermont through at least the middle of  May, possibly longer.

NOAA says odds are the Northeast will have a cool May.

It is turning out to be a bit of a reluctant spring.

Strong Storm Threatens Midwest Tornadoes, Other Troubles

Areas shaded in orange and red have the greatest risk of
tornadoes Saturday. A couple tornadoes could be long-lasting
and strong.  Areas in yellow have a somewhat lesser but
still real chance of severe storms Saturday. 

As if people don't already have enough to worry about, a strong storm could unleash some tornadoes, possibly strong ones, and other dangerous hazards in the middle of the nation this weekend.

It's a classic spring storm setup. The disturbance is now getting going in Colorado and will move across Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and into the Great Lakes by Sunday.

This storm will affect us here in Vermont, but it won't be nearly as dangerous as in parts of the Midwest.

Forecasters are especially worried about an area centered on northern Illinois on Saturday.  That area will be just to the southeast of the storm center.

This position will guarantee winds changing direction with height, one ingredient you need for rotating supercell thunderstorms, which can produce tornadoes.

Add to that very humid air streaming into that area, a  batch of drier air coming in from the west, and instability caused by the sun's heating during the day and you definitely increase the risk.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk for severe storms in northern Illinois Saturday, which is their second highest alert level.  It looks like supercell thunderstorms that are not connected to one another (they call them discrete supercells) will get going in that region Saturday afternoon.

When supercells are "discrete," they have a better chance of lasting a long time as they travel toward the east or northeast, and have a better chance of producing tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center says a couple tornadoes could be very strong and long-lasting.

This setup in Illinois reminds me a lot of a similar situation in April, 2015 that produced 11 northern Illinois tornadoes, including an EF-4 that killed two people and injured a couple dozen others in Rochelle and Fairdale, Illinois 

A lesser, but real chance of severe storms and tornadoes will exist as far east as Ohio and as far south as Mississippi on Saturday.

Predicting tornado outbreaks is a very tricky business.  If just one subtle ingredient is missing, then nothing super bad will happen. If one little meteorological ingredient is a bit more robust than expected, watch out.  The bottom line is nobody is very sure what will happen in northern Illinois Saturday, but it definitely bears watching.

Elsewhere, the storm could produce enough heavy rain in central Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. The storm looks like it will produce several inches of wet, heavy snow in northeastern Minnesota, near Lake Superior.

By the way, ahead of the main show on Saturday, a few severe thunderstorms are possible in eastern Kansas and Missouri later today. The main threat is really big hail, but a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Nothing super dangerous will come out of this storm for us in the Green Mountain State, but Sunday looks like it will be a raw, ugly day.

Saturday looks gorgeous out ahead of the storm with relatively warm temperatures near 50. Sunshine will start to fade behind thickening clouds in the afternoon - a harbinger of the storm.

Sunday will feature rain, gusty winds, and freezing rain in spots. Most if not all of the freezing rain will be along and east of the Green Mountains during the first half of Sunday.  Any  ice accumulation will be pretty light, and the roads generally won't be too bad, as road surface temperatures are likely to be a bit above freezing.

Besides, hardly anyone is driving around these days, right?

There might even be a rumble of thunder thrown in here and there Sunday afternoon, we'll see.

In the spring, storms tend to slow down their forward speed, especially when they reach our neck of the woods and that will be the case this time.  So showers will keep going through Monday night, though the precipitation will be mostly lighter by Sunday night and Monday.

They're predicting about an inch of rain with this system in Vermont, give or take.  Rivers will rise, but this doesn't look quite big enough at this point to have us worry about any real flooding.

Here's a famous video taken by a person watching the 2015 Fairdale, Illinois tornado from his house. He thought it would miss, but it veered toward him, destroying his house, injuring him and killing his wife. It's a lesson: Tornadoes can change directions.  Even if you think you're safe, take cover just in case. Here's the video It's scary!

Spring Sunshine Really Nails Vermont Snow Cover

7:47 a.m. Tuesday: A winter wonderland in St. Albans, Vermont

In scenes surely being replayed through Vermont over the past couple of days, the snow from Monday night's storm is disappearing super quickly in the face of the strong spring sun. .

There's still snow on the ground in places where the storm was bigger. Places that had 10, 11 inches of snow will go at least a couple more days before the white ground turns brown again.

Here in St. Albans, we only got 3.5 inches of snow Monday night, so the process of melting went faster, as you can see by the series of photos in this post.

4:53 p.m. Tuesday: The melt is definitly underway. 

Tellingly, there is still an inch of snow on the ground in protected areas that got zero sunshine.  The rest is gone.

Temperatures since the storm have been mild, but not wildly warm. High temperatures Tuesday were only within a couple degrees of 40, and Wednesday got into the mid-40s after an overnight freeze.

Had this storm hit in December with its low sun angle, we'd still probably have most of the snow cover left.

But the sun is high now, so those who were disheartened by the snow get a break.  It melted. Relatively unfrozen ground also helped with this melt.

3:42 p.m. Wednesday. Almost gone! 

Of course, there's a declining but still real risk of big snowstorms right through mid-April at least, though there are none currently in the forecast.

The next real storm, expected Sunday, is likely to be mostly rain, with perhaps a little snow in the mountains and Northeast.

If we do end up getting a new snowstorm in the coming few weeks, take heart. It will melt very quickly.

The landscape emerging from the snow is pretty brown, as you'd expect during mud season in March.

6:36 p.m. Wednesday. The snow is gone! 

However, it's been a relatively warm month. I've got daffodil shoots coming up everywhere on my property. Other plants are showing signs of life, too.

The initial, tentative green shoots are about as far along as they were around April 10 last year, so we're doing pretty well.

I could hear all the spring birds chirping happily outside as I write this morning.

Given the awfulness of what's going on out in the world right now, we all need this springtime hope.

In this time of anxiety and fear, it's great to latch onto something that gives us peace and something to look forward to.

Spring weather in Vermont is imperfect and sometimes frustrating. But the greening up will come. If you can and are able to maintain your social distancing, go out and enjoy the season.  Trust me. It will help.

Warmth Means Plants Blooming Too Early In Much Of Nation

Areas in dark read are up to 20 days early with spring budding and blooming
this year, says the National Phenology Network. 

Another burst of warmth is hitting the eastern United States today, bringing forecast temperatures to the 60s as far north as here in Vermont.

A warm winter and early spring has brought early blooms to much of the nation, especially the East and South.

In Vermont, we're far enough north so that we only see budding lilac trees, a few crocuses and sprouting daffodil shoots so far. That's awfully early, but these early signs of spring are not enough to endanger any fruit crops or anything else for that matter.

Which is good, since nighttime temperatures during an expected chilly snap this weekend will be in the single numbers and teens.

Elsewhere, there is concern for crops further south. There's fears that this year will be like 2012 and 2017, which also brought very early spring conditions. In those years, frosts ultimately came, nipping things that had started to blosssom to early in the eastern half of the nation.

A tree blossoms in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard last May.
The way things are going, the  tree will probably bloom
much earlier than usual this spring

Washington DC's famed cherry tree blooms are expected to peak in about a week, which is nearly a week ahead of normal.

Also, according to Scientific American, this year,  "Spring leaf out - the appearance of tiny leaves that signal the start of spring - arrived 24 days early for places like Washington"

And, according to the National Phenology Network, Boston is 23 days ahead of schedule for early spring leafout progress.

Long range forecasts, for what they are worth, predict generally above normal temperatures going into early April at least in the eastern United States. But even a warm pattern can be interrupted by a quick blast of frigid air from Canada.

Remember, it only takes a few hours of subfreezing air to cause damage to tender fruit tree blossoms.

In any event, I guess this year's early spring in terms of weather matches the astronomical calendar.

Astronomical spring began late last night, March 19, which is the earliest that has happened since 1896.

Busier Weather Pattern Coming, Typical For March

Weather map showing the "Storm Of The Century on March 13, 1993.
We don't expect anything close to this extreme anytime soon in the
United States, but a stormier pattern is on its way, typical of March. 

Mid-March is typically a very busy time on the national weather maps.  There are frequently very big storms to contend with right around this time of year.

The past couple of days and today are the anniversaries of the Great Blizzard of 1888, which dumped up to 50 inches of snow on the Northeast with drifts to 40 feet. (!!!)

It's also the anniversary of the "Storm Of The Century" Superstorm  of 1993, which struck from the Gulf Coast to southeastern Canada (including Vermont).  It was the costliest non-tropical storm in U.S. history.

More recently, a bomb cyclone triggered record flooding in Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota in mid-March last year. The Pi Day blizzard struck Vermont and surrounding areas in 2017 with more than two feet of snow in some areas.  

We don't expect anything like those storms in the coming days, but the weather pattern, already a bit active, looks like it will crank up a bit more.

An initial storm in the middle of the nation is no great shakes.  I'm out in Yankton, South Dakota at the moment and I awoke to an inch or two of snow on the ground here.  Down in Nebraska, there's up to six inches of snow. This small thing will gently slap Vermont with some rain showers on Tuesday.

The atmosphere is reloading, though.  California is in for a wet weekend, with lots of snow in the Sierra Nevada. That's actually a good thing. February was remarkably dry, so that rain is welcome. The several feet of snow expected in the highest elevations there will bring the snow pack there a little closer to normal.

That's important because California needs the melting snow from the mountains later this spring and summer to replenish reservoirs.

Eventually, a lot of this energy from California will emerge into the Plains states by the middle or end of the upcoming week.  It's way too soon to say exactly how this will evolve, but there's definitely a good chance of a northern or central Plains blizzard, and severe weather in the South.

I doubt this storm will reach the extremes I cited above, but it will probably cause trouble nonetheless.

We'll watch how this shakes out in the coming days.  I also have no idea at this point how or even if this storm will affect us in Vermont.

After that, more impulses will come in from the Pacific Ocean and cross the nation through the rest of the month.  They might not be gigantic storms, but it will keep the weather interesting through the rest of the month.

That's just another example of how busy March can be for weather forecasters.

Vermont Sky Photos Of 2019: Some Of My Favorites

One of the cloud photos I took in Vermont last year. 

Well, three months late, but I finally got around to doing my annual video of some of my favorite sky and weather photos from Vermont during 2019.

As you can see in the slide show, pretty much all of the photos were taken in northwestern Vermont.

Also, the photos are pretty heavy on the summer season rather than winter, spring and autumn.

That's because the sky, at least in my opinion, is so much more interesting during that time of year.

Here's the video:

Vermont February, No Surprise, Was Wet And Warm For Winter

Snow and ice cover trees in St. Albans, Vermont on February 9.
February was somewhat warm, with plenty of mixed precipitation
across Vermont. 

Today, March 1, represents the start of spring. At least to climatologists.

True, it's a wintry day out there in Vermont, with fresh snow on the ground in many places and temperatures that are expected to only make it into the low 20s.

However, climatologists who measure the weather in seasons regard meteorological spring as the period from March 1 through May 31. So winter is over. Yay.  

Not that the last part of winter was extreme.  I'll admit February in Vermont was a true winter month, with plenty of snow in many areas and temperatures that didn't break any record highs to speak of.

But it was warm, and on the wet side. Consistent with the rest of the winter, we had our share of mixed precipitation in the Green Mountain State.

Official, the mean February temperature in Burlington was 24.8 degrees, which was 3.3 degrees on the warm side. That's not remotely close to even the top 10 warmest Februaries, but there's no doubt we didn't exact have icebox conditions, either.

There was 2.3 inches of rain and melted snow and ice in Burlington during February, which was about a half inch on the plus side. Again, wet, but not in the top ten wettest list.

It was also a snowy February in Burlington. It amounted to 21.4 inches, which is five inches snowier than average. Once again, nowhere near any records for snow, though.

Elsewhere in Vermont, departures from normal in February were remarkably consistent, much more than in most months.  Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Morrisville and St. Johnsbury were all near or somewhat more than two degrees warmer than normal. All of these stations were wetter than normal for February, but not by a large margin.

February was good for snow in many of Vermont's mountains. The month started with about 46 inches of snow on the ground atop Mount Mansfield and ended with 83 inches covering the ground near the summit.

While February temperatures didn't set records for warmth, the winter as a whole was quite warm.  December 1 through February 29 averaged 26.1 degrees for what is climatological winter in Burlington.  That's the seventh warmest winter on record. This means five of the top ten warmest winters in Burlington were in this century, the 2000s.

Elsewhere in New England, Boston had its second warmest winter on record. Providence was fifth warmest, and Worcester was seventh warmest.

It wasn't just New England. You're going to hear of a number of United States and overseas citys and even nations having their warmest winter on record this year as data comes in over the next coming days.