Records To Fall Amid Big Vermont Winter Storm, Arctic Cold Snap

Around a foot of snow could fall with this storm in the northern
Champlain Valley and northeastern New York. Lesser amounts
are due in southern Vermont, but sleet and freezing rain
will be an additional problem down there.

It was already snowing in parts of northern Vermont early this morning, the first small salvo in what will be a major winter storm later today into Tuesday.

I'm not just calling the upcoming storm major because it involves a lot of snow and some ice for this early in the season.  This will be, at least in some places, one of the bigger winter storms of the 2019-20 winter.

After the storm, we'll get into record cold weather, and some of the readings will probably be the coldest for so early in the season.

Let's get into the storm first.

The heaviest snow will come down in the northwestern third of Vermont, including the Champlain Valley.  Which is different than many winter storms, when areas outside the Champlain Valley get the most snow.

Northern New York will be in the heavy snow band, too. In these areas with the heaviest snow, 6 to 14 inches of accumulation is forecast by midday Tuesday.  A foot of snow really is a lot for this time of year.  These forecasts also call for deeper accumulations than predictions for this storm issued on Sunday.

By the way, Burlington has a shot of having one of its ten snowiest Novembers because of this storm. Number 10 on the list had 14.9 inches.  Burlington has already had 2.6 inches of snow this month, and the forecast calls for another 11 inches or so.  Plus, you figure it will snow again later in the month.

After sputtering light snows this morning, the snow will pick up in intensity this afternoon and especially overnight.  There will be periods when snow comes down at a rate of one or two inches per hour, which is a biggie.



You can always tell when it's going to snow by looking at
windshield wipers. Wipers were up off windshields in this
Burlington, Vermont workplace parking lot this morning in
anticipation of snow later today

South and east of a line very roughly between Middlebury and St. Johnsbury, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says there will be mixed precipitation overnight, changing to snow late tonight or Tuesday morning. 

There might be some accumulation of ice on trees and power lines in southern Vermont with this, but I think tree and power line damage will be on the light side. Still, there is the risk of some power outages down there.

After that epic storm on Halloween that cut power to 50,000 Vermont homes and businesses, I'm sure people are thrilled with this news.

The onset of precipitation in the south will be later than in the north, which will also cut down on the expected accumulations. Also, precipitation will probably not be as heavy as in the north.

The drive home this Monday evening will be tricky, and then just awful Tuesday morning. I anticipate a lot of school closures and delays. If you can work from home tomorrow instead of driving into work, that will be ideal.

It's not just us getting the winter storm, of course. Winter storm warnings extend from northeastern Ohio to northern Maine. Winter weather advisories extend much further west in a band extending from the Northeast all the way out to Nebraska and Colorado.

In Canada, Montreal is expecting a good eight inches of snow, and parts of southern Ontario are bracing for potentially their biggest mid-November storm on record.

Even more impressive than this winter storm is the cold that will follow.  One of the strongest mid-November cold waves in history is set to hit the eastern half of the United States, except Florida.

There will be lots of record lows with this, including here in Vermont.

The record low in Burlington Wednesday is 15 degrees and the record low on Thursday is 10 degrees.  Readings are forecast to get at least that cold this week.  Highs Wednesday will only be in the upper teens to around 20, which is actually colder than normal for the depths of winter in January.

The cold will stick around for awhile, as I've been noting   There will be a brief moderation Friday but that will be cut off by a fresh Arctic blast Friday night and Saturday.

Next week, the weather pattern does not look like it will be as extreme as this week. That means it still might be a little chilly next week, but not ridiculous like it will be over the next few days.

Mississippi College Bar Tornado Panic Proves Need For People To Plan For Scary Weather

 The building housing Bin 612 in Starksville, Mississippi. The
bar came under controversy this month when it ordered
patrons out when a tornado warning was issued. 

If you're out and about and a tornado warning is issued, you should seek shelter in a sturdy building if at all possible.

One good idea if you have time is to run into a business in a substantial building.

People do that all the time during warnings. Business owners are pretty much always happy to rescue people caught out in their cars or on foot when a tornado is bearing down.

However, you can't always count on a business being accommodating, or even capable of helping people out in dangerous weather.  

This was the case earlier this month in Mississippi. It highlights how people should be prepared in advance for scary, dangerous weather. And how businesses and municipalities can develop or improve severe weather emergency plans.  

Controversy erupted in Starksville, Mississippi during a recent tornado outbreak in the South, when a pub called Bin 612 near Mississippi State University.

Bin 612, and other nearby restaurants, shut their doors when a tornado warning was issued.  Some people were outraged that the bar would kick people out in a tornado warning. Others wondered why people were out at bars in the first place when forecasts had called for severe weather all day.

According to Al.com:

"Bin 612 - and nearly half a dozen nearby restaurants in the area's Cotton District - shut their doors as soon as the tornado warning was issued. Those already inside were asked to leave. And it didn't go over well.

Video posted to social media Saturday night showed a cacophony of dumbstruck students as chaos ensued following the evacuation notice. 'Get the (expletive out!' a voice can be heard shouting - later revealed to be a third-party security guard."

In the jumpy video, you can also hear a young woman pleading, "Where do we go for shelter?"

Dire warnings probably unintentionally helped lead to the panic. Often, if a tornado is confirmed or if signs point to a particularly bad one, tornado warnings often have enhanced working. Shortly before 10 p.m. that Saturday, the National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi issued a tornado warnint for the Starksville area.

A few minutes later, that warning was upgraded to include the message that "a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located....nine miles southwest of Starksville" and moving right toward the town. People had less than 10 minutes to take cover.

This enhanced wording from the National Weather Service is meant to tell complacent people that this one is serious, take it seriously.

The dire warning panicked people in Bin 612 and surrounding bars. Bin 612 has a basement, but it can only hold about 50 people. Close to 300 people were in Bin 612 that night. Video of the moment is at the bottom of this post.

Staying in the bar would have been dangerous, Ty Thames, the owner of Bin 612 told Al.com

"'People were too intoxicated to understand they were in danger there,' explained Thames. 'It's basically wall to wall glass on the front and back of the building. The only non-glass walls we have are interior room-to-room walls. And those are lined with glass racks to hold glasses, over 300 liquor bottles and tons of serving glasses."

Thames said security guards tried to guide people to a nearby underground parking garage. But the crowd was panicked, the guards were frantic and yelling expletives. So any sense of a reasonable process to take cover was lost

Thankfully, the tornado lifted before it reached town.  So, death and disaster averted.

That's not always the case. There have been deaths over the years at outdoor concert venues and other events when severe weather rolled in and organizers didn't have a good enough plan to get people to shelter in time.

All this points to lessons that should have been learned. Bin 612 and other businesses should think through a plan to evacuate people in an orderly fashion during an emergency. No ad hoc security guards shoving people out through doors, please. To his credit, Thames said he would review and upgrade his severe weather plan

And people out for an evening when severe weather is forecast should have looked at their surroundings and figured out where they would go if a tornado warning was issued, or another emergency cropped up. Better yet, since they'd been forecasting rough weather all day, people maybe should have stayed home, and go out another night when the weather was calmer.

I know this is paranoid, but when I go to a crowded public venue, I always take note of where the exit  signs are, and think for a moment how I would leave if I had to get out in a hurry.

Here's the video of security guards yelling, scared, drunk patrons and people not knowing what to do. Not the best moment in severe weather prep:

Flooding In Vermont Today, Severe Weather Influenced It

USGS data from early this morning showed the Otter Creek in
Center Rutland Vermont zooming rapidly upward past
flood stage early this morning. 

Early this morning, flash flood warnings and flood warnings were in effect around Rutland County and southern Addison County, Vermont, with other flood warnings extending northeast of there.

Overall, the flooding in parts of southern and central Vermont is, if anything, worse than anticipated.

A line of thunderstorms that was earlier part of an area of severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings made it into western New England, including southwestern Vermont earlier this morning, enhancing the rain and making Rutland and Windsor Counties so far at least, the epicenter of flooding from this current episode.

The thunderstorms weren't severe by the time they hit Vermont - no high winds and certainly no tornado threat. But they retained their heavy rain and up to two inches of rain fell on saturated ground and melting snow in just a short period of time.

There are flooding reports coming out of the area. A driveway is washed out along Route 4A in West Rutland. My sister Lynn, who lives in West Rutland said three thunderstorms blustered through overnight, each containing very torrential rain. She confirmed reports that Route 4 was under water near the West Rutland Price Chopper supermarket. Lynn also said water appeared to be flowing into a basement on Route 4A.

Route 133 in Middletown Springs was blocked by floodwaters, as was a section of Route 30 in Wells.

Also, Route 7, a major commuter route, was closed this morning by flooding at Post Road in Rutland Town. Route 107 was  closed by flooding in Stockbridge, as was Route 100 in Rochester.

Since that batch of heavy rain was heading northeast early this morning, flooding will probably worsen during the morning in parts of central and eastern Vermont. We'll have to watch Windsor, Washington and Orange counties in particular. Listen for flood and flash flood warnings, and do what the warnings say. Don't drive over flooded roads!

Not everyone in Vermont saw flooding. As usual, it was hit and miss. For instance, where I live in St. Albans, Vermont, it certainly rained overnight. But there was no sign of flooding around my place. The little brook that runs past my house had a healthy flow, but it was far, far below the level where it would cause trouble.

The rain will become more showery as the day progresses, but there still might be pockets of briefly heavy rain after that mass of thunderstorms exits eastern Vermont later this morning.

I think by then, the threat of flooding on smaller streams will begin to diminish, but runoff from the rain and melting snow will keep the larger rivers rising. With all that heavy rain in Rutland and Bennington counties this morning, the Otter Creek will be a problem.

USGS data this morning shows the Otter Creek rising extremely fast and it had past flood stage by early this morning.   We'll need to watch other rivers across Vermont today for flooding as well.

The National Weather Service early this morning also issued flood warnings for the Mad and Dog rivers in central Vermont, which were rapidly rising toward flood stage early this morning.

The best guess is most of the major rivers in Vermont such as the Lamoille, Winooski and Missisquoi will crest this afternoon and tonight.

By the way, there will probably be some snow showers again in the high elevations overnight, but accumulations won't amount to too much. Tuesday will be a windy and cool day.

After a break in the weather midweek, we'll have to watch another potentially very wet storm toward the end of the week and the weekend. It looks like we in Vermont might get even more into the warm side of the storm than is the case with today's system.

That raises the possibillity of more thunderstorms with heavy rain instead of a more gentle, steady rain. It's not set in stone if this will happen. Things could definitely change. But there's at least the potential for another flood threat at the end of the week.

SEVERE WEATHER

Those thunderstorms that caused havoc in the southern half of Vermont this morning were part of a line of severe storms that got going in the Ohio yesterday and moved to the East Coast this morning.

There was a very damaging tornado in Shelby, Ohio, and numerous tornado warnings and reports of wind damage in Pennsylvania, western New York, New Jersey and on down the coast to Florida. There was even a tornado warning in Philadelphia for a time early this morning.

There was also a report of wind damage from thunderstorms as far north as Warren County, New York, which is immediately to the west of Rutland County, Vermont. As of 6:30 this morning the thunderstorms were causing an enormous amountof lightning in southern New England. Luckily, those thunderstorms should move east of Boston by the time the Boston Marathon starts today.

It still looks like there will be another widespread outbreak of severe weather and possible tornadoes in the middle and southeastern quarter of the nation Wednesday through Friday.

Some videos:

Tornado=wrecked fire station in Mississippi



New view of Franklin, Texas after Saturday's tornado

Flood Issues Worse Than Expected In Vermont Today

Screen grab of a video by a person named Lydia who provided to WPTZ-TV
today this video of an ice jam breaking up and flowing along
the New Haven River in Lincoln, Vermont.  

Just a head's up: As of 3 p.m. today, flooding in Vermont is worse than anticipated during this brief, rainy, mild spell. This is especially true in southern Vermont.

I mentioned this morning about the ponding of water on roads. That has happened. But it has gone beyond that in a few places.

Rainfall has been heavier than expected in many areas, especially. Flood warnings are now up for Bennington and Windham counties, where there are plenty of problems.

In Brattleboro, the towns fire department said it was evacuating two mobile home parks and a senior housing complex due to ice jams and flooding on Whetsone Brook, NECN reports. Parts of Route 9 heading west out of Brattleboro are flooded.

Flooding is also reported in Grafton, Chester and Arlington due to rain, snow melt, and ice jams. A mudslide of all things was reported along Route 7A in Arlington.

Rainfall totals in far southern Vermont could reach three inches before precipitation tapers off later today.

Things aren't as bad in central and northern Vermont, but there is the risk of a few ice jams and areas of high water there today.  Some ice jams have been reported along the New Haven River in central Vermont and the Ausable River in New York, but so far there has not been serious flooding along those two waterways.

Snow cover is deeper in northern Vermont so much of the rain is soaking into the snow pack. At my house in St. Albans, the brook that runs by my place has gone up and is flowing briskly, but it is no where near high enough to cause trouble.

A cold front was slowly pressing into Vermont from the west as of 3 p.m. That will force the rain to change to snow and taper off pretty quickly once the front goes by. The threat of local flooding and ice jams will continue for several hours, though, as rain and some snow melt continue to drain downhill.

Meanwhile, virtually all of southern New England is under a flood warning as rain has been much heavier there. High winds are causing additional damage along the coast.

Vermont, New York Get Surprise Downpours, Flood Threat Dramatically Worsens

Chaos in Barre, Vermont after a May, 2011 flash flood.
There's some risk we could see scenes like this again this weekend.

Much more rain fell across northern New York and the northern half of Vermont overnight, and this sets the stage for a real flood threat.

The threat is even higher than I had been expecting earlier this week.

Last night's torrential rains, amounted to two to three inches, locally even a little more from the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, across Lake Champlain and the northern half of Vermont.

Burlington got 2.16 inches of rain and Colchester piled up 2.71 inches.

By the way, June rainfall in Burlington has so far amounted to 6.79 inches. If we don't get a drop of rain today, it'll still be the seventh wettest June on record.

Flood warnings were issued across a stripe of northern Vermont, along and roughly 30 miles either side of a line from Burlington to a little south of St. Johnsbury.

There's been no major flooding in that zone, but there is high water, washouts and that kind of thing.

Mainstem rivers are already getting into the act, too. There's a flood warning for the Winooski River at Waterbury. Today's flooding won't be as bad as during Tropical Storm Irene, when the Winooski flooded most of downtown Waterbury.

But low spots, and low roads are going to go underwater. Flooding will cover fields and damage crops downstream to Richmond, and possibly all the way down to the famed vegetable farms in Burlington's Intervale.

The rain was temporarily waning early this morning and the flood warnings will have probably been dropped, at least for awhile across northern Vermont by the time you read this. With the exception of the Winooski River flood warning, which will probably remain in effect most of the day, even if we don't get much more rain.

However, this flood event is only just beginning.

A flash flood watch is up across northern New York, the northern half of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and western Maine through Saturday night.

The warm front that caused the torrential rains last night is lifting toward Quebec and we'll get firmly entrenched in the warm, very humid air today.

Disturbances riding along a front to our west will fire up plenty of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and some will of course have torrential rain.  Even as I write this at 7 a.m. Friday, heavy downpours were lurking in western New York, heading east.

Here's how high the risk is: It would only take about an inch of rain in an hour to cause a flash flood. Some of the thunderstorms today and even more numerous ones Saturday and Saturday night could easily drop two inches of rain in an hour.

Flash flooding in Richmond,  Vermont in June, 2013. This
kind of thing could easily happen again today, and
especially Saturday in Vermont. 

And some locations that are unlucky enough to get repeated storms could get three to five inches of rain between now and Saturday night.

We get flash flood watches fairly often, but this to me is the most precarious situation since the big spring and summer floods of 2011.

Some of today's storms could also be severe, with strong gusty winds. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in part of a broad zone of a slight severe storm risk today.

The storms will subside tonight, but there's still a chance of locally heavy downpours overnight.

For what it's worth, one weather model has a band of heavy rain lingering for several hours across northern Vermont this evening. That might or might not actually happen, but it's something to watch.

Saturday afternoon and night is looking even more dangerous. The cold front to our west will be closer, and the thunderstorms will be much more numerous Saturday than they will be today.

Even worse, the air will be even more humid than today, providing the fuel for even more torrential rains. And some of those storms could be severe, with gusty winds.

Not only is flash flooding a threat, but some of the bigger rivers in the North Country could flood. We already mentioned today's flood warning on the Winooski.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Winooski flooded again by Saturday, along with other rivers like the Ausable in New York, and Vermont's Lamoille, Mississquoi and Mad rivers. This all depends, of course, on how widespread and heavy the rain is.

So heads up. It's going to be a rough weekend. The threat of flooding is pretty damn high. We could get lucky and not get so many storms, but I'm not holding my breath. This could be one for the record books.

Evening Update: Huge Mess Of A Storm Coming To Vermont, Elsewhere In Northeast

The National Weather Service Office in South Burlington
Vermont is expecting generally two to six inches of wet
snow, ice, slush and crud by tomorrow night.

If you live in Vermont, northern New York or the rest of northern and central New England, expect a real doozy of a mess for Tuesday morning's commute.

The atmosphere temperatures will be right near the freezing point through a deep layer of the atmosphere in Vermont late tonight and Tuesday.

The result will be that ugly mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain and rain that we've been advertising.

It's really impossible to say exactly what will be falling when at any given place in Vermont or surrounding places.

Don't expect any forecast you hear this evening to turn out to be completely accurate. There could be more or less snow, more or less ice, more or less rain than current specific forecasts are calling for.

Just expect, snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain or all of the above any time late tonight and Tuesday.  It'll start first later tonight in southern Vermont and spread through the rest of the state by Tuesday morning.

Unfortunately, at this point, (I'm writing this late afternoon Monday) it looks as if the heaviest precipitation, whatever it is, will come down during the Tuesday morning commute. Not surprisingly, we're under a winter weather advisory.

Give yourself LOTS of extra time to get to your destination. Or don't bother going out at all, if possible. I bet there will be plenty of school closings, too.

I'm also worried about power failures. The combination of ice, wet, heavy snow and wind could easily bring down a number of trees and power lines. Total accumulation still looks to be generally two to six inches of slush, ice, crud and yuck in most of Vermont.

There might be a lull in the precipitation during the middle of the day (we'll see) but it could pick up somewhat again in time for the evening commute.  A brief foray to above freezing temperatures Tuesday afternoon in some valley locations (but not all of them!) could create a temporary reprieve. Don't count on it, though.

Things will taper off Tuesday night, but there will still be some snow or mixed precipitation around.

If this makes you feel any better, this large storm is causing a lot of problems for a lot of other people. Western New York and southern Quebec are in for a nasty snow and sleet storm with six inches or more of accumulation.

Worse, the storm is causing high winds and coastal flooding from Virginia to Maryland. Coastal areas from New Jersey north can expect flooding tonight and possibly Tuesday, along with damaging winds gusting to as high as 70 mph.

By the way, no time to discuss this in detail, but California had a nasty storm yesterday and today, too.

Christmas Storm A Huge Mess In Northern Plains

I don't think it will get this bad in North Dakota this weekend,
but they're still due for a wicked, wicked blizzard 

As expected, the Dakotas are going to be ground zero for an intense winter storm this Christmas weekend but the sprawling system is having coast-to-coast effects.

The blizzard warning covers all but southeastern North Dakota and the western third of South Dakota.

There, six to 12 inches of new snow, propelled by winds gusting to or even above 55 mph, will create a dangerous whiteout, making travel impossible on Christmas Day.

Overall, the storm has slowed down a bit, so the worst effects of the blizzards and ice and such will be during the day Christmas, Christmas night an on into Monday

The southern and eastern edges of the blizzard zone will probably get a period of sleet and freezing rain  mixing in, which will only make the situation worse.

I think South Dakota wins the jackpot for the most variety of bad or dangerous weather out of this strong storm. We already mentioned the blizzard warning in the western part of that state.

Central South Dakota and eastern areas of the state north of Sioux Falls are in for freezing rain and gusty winds. In most spots, the freezing rain won't accumulate enough to bring down trees and power lines, though wind gusts of up to 50 mph won't help. Plus the roads will be very icy

The southeastern corner of South Dakota, where many of my relatives are gathered (in Yankton) for Christmas, will get a little freezing drizzle, then rain and possible thunderstorms, which is odd for Christmas. One or two of the thunderstorms might be strong.

The possibility of severe thunderstorms with this huge storm is even stronger in Nebraska and  Kansas, again, much further north than we're used to seeing in late December. Strong straight line winds are the biggest threats with the Christmas thunderstorms.

Minnesota is screwed with this storm, too.  Far northern Minnesota is in for a snowstorm, with a fair amount of sleet and freezing rain mixed in.

Central Minnesota, northwest of Minneapolis, is under an ice storm warnng. There, a fairly heavy accumulation of ice, combines with winds gusting to 40 mph will probably bring down quite a few power lines, trees and branches.

Elsewhere in the nation, the effects of this storm won't be quite as intense, but they will be felt. Almost all of the Rocky Mountains are under winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories.

It'll also get quite windy in parts of the Rockies and western High Plains all the way down into Texas.

In the Northeast, the storm will produce a brief bout of rain early in the week, with an icy mix in northern New York and northern New England, To make matters worse up here in the North Country, winds could gust to 50 mph or so Monday and Tuesday, with the inevitable scattered power outages coming out of that as well.

After that, the details on the nation's weather are sketchy, as computer models are all over the place, except for this one area of agreement: It looks like it will be a very active weather pattern at least into the first week of January, and probably beyond.

Matthew Hammering Florida, Haiti Reeling, Dumb Storm Conspiracy Theories

Radar image of Matthew near
  Cape Canaveral early this morning.  

Winds were starting to gust to near 100 mph around Cape Canaveral, Florida before dawn today as Hurricane Matthew slowly trudged northward along the Florida coast.

So far, the hurricane has been in a position ever so slightly east of where many forecasters thought it would be.

That's great news, because even this slight eastward jog has kept much of the worst winds away from Florida. At least so far.

Still, there's going to be a lot of wind damage and flooding in that area, and in coastal Georgia and South Carolina, too.

Before dawn Matthew was going through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle. During these cycles, the eye of the storm rearranges itself, either becoming bigger or smaller.

During eye wall replacement cycles, powerful hurricanes like Matthew temporarily weaken a little, and that's what Matthew did, which is also a bit of good news.

 Maximum sustained winds had dropped to 120 mph - still horrible, but a tad less horrible than yesterday.

Once the eyewall replacement cycle is over, Matthew won't have a chance to restrengthen. Interaction with land as it moves along the coast, and increasing upper level winds, will make Matthew slowly weaken further over the next few days as it first makes a run at the South Carolina coast, then heads east offshore, then south.

The really good news is Matthew is tracking northward a little offshore, a bit more than forecasters thought. So things are really bad in eastern Florida, but not as bad as they could have been had Matthew went inland.

As it stands now, it looks like Matthew could hit the Bahamas or even Florida again in a few days as it does a loop off the coast. Only this time it would do so as just a fairly weak tropical storm. We'll see how that turns out. 

Matthew along the Florida coast Friday morning.

Meanwhile, news out of Haiti, the first country Matthew hit, is getting grimmer and grimmer. As of early this morning, the BBC and other news outlets reported more than 300 dead in Haiti, and the death toll is sure to rise as rescuers and aid workers reach hard hit areas.

Matthew lumbered through the Bahamas Thursday, causing extensive storm surge flooding, blowing roofs off homes and hotels, cutting power and prompting several rescues. So far, I haven't heard of any deaths in the Bahamas, which is a good thing.

NICOLE

Another stunning hurricane development that hasn't gotten much attention because of Matthew is Hurricane Nicole. It's south of Bermuda, and peaked last night with sustained winds of 105 mph.

This meant that two hurricanes in the Atlantic simultaneously had sustained winds of at least 100 mph. That's the first time such a thing has happened this late in the season

Luckily, Nicole is not expected to hit any land areas and will gradually weaken over the next few days.

Nicole wasn't supposed to amount to anything more than a piddling tropical storm, because outflow from Matthew would squelch it. But Nicole surprised everyone by becoming a substantial hurricane.

STUPIDITY OF DRUDGE

Now, I have to go off on a riff about stupid people, so here goes:

That Hurricane Matthew appears to be sparing Florida as bad a blow as some feared is obviously a very good thing. But some people are making political hay out of this, which could be deadly in future storms. People like Matt Drudge and Rush Limbaugh might have blood on their hands in the future.

Matt Drudge came up with this wackadoodle conspiracy theory yesterday that government officials, including the National Hurricane Center, are exaggerating the strength and risks from hurricanes like Matthew to scare people into fearing climate change.

Drudge tweeted: "The deplorables are starting to wonder if gov't has been lying to them about Hurricane Matthew intensity to make exaggerated point on climate."

He also tweeted: "Hurricane Center has monopoly on data. NO way of verifying claims. Nassau ground observations DID NOT match claims. 165 mph gusts? Where?"

As Vox noted, Drudge's conspiracy dumbness is dangerous:

"The implication of Drudge's tweet is that resisting evacuation isn't a bad, self destructive move but a brave way for 'deplorables' to stand up to the government. That's not just stupid - it could very well be deadly," Libby Nelson wrote in Vox.

For the record, the National Hurricane Center is nonpartisan, and its data is public record. So anybody could look at their data and find out if there's any funny business.

The National Hurricane Center has also repeatedly cautioned that you can't blame climate change on a single storm, though scientists there have said that climate change might, MIGHT make stronger hurricanes more likely.

Florida Governor Rick Scott, a Republican who has not embraced the science of climate change, strongly urged people to evacuate ahead of Matthew.  So Matt Drudge, what's Rick Scott's problem.

I agree with meteorologist Joe Bastardi, an outspoken climate change skeptic on his Tweet this morning: "Flat out ignorant to believe NHC exaggerating data for climate change. What, so they can look bad if it doesn't happen? 40 mile error explains."

The 40 mile error Bastardi referred to is the mere fact that Matthew is as much as 40 miles further east than many forecasters predicted. It's that simple.

Drudge is just dumb. By the way, Rush Limbaugh was making similar silly claims as Drudge yesterday, too.

I think the two of them should rent a nice beachfront cottage in a location about to hit by the next strong hurricane.

That Midwest Severe Weather Outbreak Today Looks Really Bad

Areas in red and orange are most likely to experiemce
tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm winds today.  

A broad area around the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is bracing today for a very dangerous weather day.

An unusually strong weather  disturbance for this time of year is interacting with very hot, very humid air to create the risk for tornadoes, a few of which might be strong, very damaging winds, flash flooding and maybe even a derecho.

Derecho are relative rare, and are often more dangerous than tornadoes or individual severe thunderstorms because they cover such a wide area.

Most areas in the eastern two thirds of the United States experience a derecho once a year at most. Almost all areas get them less often than that, maybe one or two every four years.

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, a derecho is defined as a swath of wind damage that extends for more than 250 miles, which includes quite a few locations within the derecho's path of gettings gusts of at least 58 mph,  and also several well-separated 75 mph or greater gusts.

Sometimes winds in a couple spots along a derecho's path can get ridiculous. One derecho in May, 1998 created a wind gust of 128 mph in southern Wisconsin.

Derechos move forward fast - often between 50 and 70 mph -  so they come on you suddenly. They're particularly dangerous in urban areas, since they toss down lots of trees and power lines that hit houses and cars and cause long-lasting power outages.

Whether or not a derecho gets going with this outbreak or not, things will get dicey in the southern Great Lakes and other parts of the Midwest.

They already are dicey, in fact. Heavy thunderstorms over eastern Iowa with this storm system early this morning have caused some flash floods.

But the real dangerous stuff starts this afternoon. Initially, some supercell thunderstorms, with the potential for a couple strong tornadoes, will get going in eastern Iowa or northwestern Illinois.

The storms will then evolve into a line of bad storms barreling east to southeast across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. That might be the derecho we're talking about. Even it it ultimately does not meet the definition of a derecho, many communities along the path of the storms will get strong damaging winds, sometimes in excess of 70 mph.

There will be a tornado threat in this area as it comes through later today, too,  especially in eastern Iowa, parts of Illinois including in the southern half of the Chicago metro area, and maybe on toward South Bend and Indianapolis, Indiana and Columbus, Ohio, says the Storm Prediction Center

The complex of storms will plow through the central Appalachians tonight and possible into the mid-Atlantic states, where severe storms and a couple tornadoes caused damage yesterday.

Here's a video taken in 2011 that shows you don't need a tornado to make a storm like today's expected outbreak dangerous. These are straight line winds from a thunderstorm

 

Lake Effect Snows To Be Hint Of Normalcy In Weird December

In November, 2014, epic lake effect snows
buried homes near Buffalo, New York.
Lake effect snows are due in the region
again this weekend, but accumulations will
be far lighter than pictured here. 

Lake effect snow warnings are flying in parts of western New York east of the Great Lakes as cold winds are expected to blow across the relatively warm waters of lakes Ontario and Erie today and Saturday.

Up to two feet of snow might accumulate south of Watertown, New York, near Lake Ontario, and up to 14 inches of snow south of Buffalo, near Lake Erie.

December is usually the big month for lake effect snows near the Great Lakes. Some lingering warmth is in the water from summer, and cold blasts of Arctic air usually surge down from Canada.

The cold air picks up moisture from the sort of mild waters and dumps it as heavy snow squalls downwind from the lakes.

This year, there's been no cold air to be had, so no lake effect. Places like Buffalo have had their latest first snows of the season on record.

Two feet of snow sounds like a lot, but this is pretty typical for a December lake effect outbreak, and they're used to this in western New York.

It's also not going to last. The cold wave coming down is not that big a deal, only bringing near normal temperatures for a couple days to the Northeast.

Then it's going to warm right back up again, with record temperatures in parts of the East over Christmas week.

Which  means even the few places that get blasted by lake effect snow this weekend still might not end up with a White Christmas.

With Or Without Joaquin, East Coast In For A Flood

Visible satellite view of Hurricane Joaquin this morning
It could threaten the increasingly soggy East Coast Monday. 

The first round of torrential downpours is crossing the Northeast,  having trekked from the Gulf Coast through the Mid-Atlantic States and on into New England.

Flood alerts are up. This is the first wave of what promises to be several waves of dangerous downpours for much of the eastern United States. Beware, this could be scary in spots.

Yesterday, I said that things were totally uncertain and there was a mix of hype and genuine forecasting concern out there.

That's still true today, but things are a little more in focus now. Still, expect big changes in the forecasts in the coming days, with various areas coming under threat from floods at different times.

Hurricane Joaquin is going to enter the picture. We don't know exactly what effect he'll have on this mess. But whether or not the hurricane ultimately comes ashore on the East Coast or stays well off the coast, there's still going to be a bunch of rain. And I mean a BUNCH!

These flooding threats over the next week or so are going to hit some of the most populated areas of the nation. I wouldn't be surprised, if some of the forecasting models are right, that this has the potential to be a billion dollar disaster, given the huge area of the country under threat from the downpours.

I don't think I've ever seen computer models forecast seven or more inches of rain over several days in one, 1,000 mile stretch of the nation. But I've seen it this time.

TODAY

The first wave of rain caused flooding Monday in the Mobile, Alabama area and in the Florida Panhandle. Tuesday, parts of the mid-Atlantic states were targeted, especially western Virginia.

Today, the focus of heavy rain is across New England and eastern New York. More than four inches of rain might fall in some areas, especially Maine, parts of New Hampshire, the southern half of Vermont and northern Massachusetts.

Already, Burlington, Vermont had had a storm total of 2.78 inches as of 8 a.m. Wednesday,  It was still raining steadily there.

Even though New England had a dry September up until now, there is a real threat of flooding today.  Nothing like Hurricane Irene in 2011, for sure, but still something to be careful about. Already, flood warnings were flying for much of western New Hampshire and southwestern Maine as of 8 a.m.

NEXT UP

The focus then shift south of the Mid Atlantic states, possibly as far north as southern New England as a stalled front, tropical moisture moving north and a strong high pressure system from the north feeds in gusty Atlantic air from the east.

The potential for heavy rain over the next couple of days, into Saturday have little to do with Joaquin, which will still be drifting vaguely toward the United States, but still east of the Bahamas.

The U.S. rains later this week and into the weekend are called a "predecessor" storm. Often along the East Coast, before a hurricane, the weather pattern features fronts and moisture that slam certain areas with flooding rains.

The devil is in the details here, as we don't know where the focus of heaviest rain will be, but somewhere between North Carolina and Maryland, at least half a foot of rain could come down between Thursday and Saturday. A few computer models forecast a FOOT of rain.

This would lead to flooding, obviously, since it's already rained hard there the past couple days. If things come together just right, the flooding could be particularly severe and disastrous in some areas.

Again, stay tuned.

THEN THERE"S JOAQUIN

Formerly weak Tropical Storm Joaquin strengthened robustly overnight and as of 8 a.m. was a Category 1 hurricane with top sustained winds of 75 mph.  .

During El Nino years, which we have now, strong upper level winds tend to rip apart nascent tropical storms in the Atlantic and we've seen that over and over this year. 

Various computer models are a little more focused
on Joaquin's future track than yesterday. Many
bring the hurricane into the U.S. East Coast
but there's still no guarantee that will happen.

This time, the upper level winds are relaxing in a small part of the Atlantic. The part where Joaquin is. So it can strengthen.

Also, in general, the warmer the water, the better chance a tropical storm has of strengthening.

Water temperatures are at record high levels east of the Bahamas, which again happens to be right where Joaquin is hanging out.

Joaquin is taking full advantage of that and it will almost surely strengthen today. 

The next question is, What's Joaquin up to after drifting slowly on vacation slowly westward or southwestward east  of the Bahamas the next few days.

Well, eventually, the stalled front and big trough of low pressure causing all those flood problems on the East Coast will pick it up and fling Joaquin northward.

But exactly where? Things are a little more clear with Joaquin's path than yesterday, but they're still very uncertain. Joaquin could move northeastward, off the coast. That would fling some moisture back into the already wet East Coast storminess and make the flooding that much worse, but it wouldn't be a worst case scenario.

Other computer models take Joaquin and have it come ashore, maybe Monday somewhere in the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic Coast. That would be a HUGE disaster, given the wind, the storm surge and especially the inland flooding that result in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

As a side note, you might remember that in 2012, the European computer model, well in advance, told us Superstorm Sandy would hit the U.S. East Coast while the other models said it would miss.

Well, the European model was famously right and warned us well in advance.

This time, the European takes Joaquin far out to sea while many of the other forecasting models have the  hurricane hitting the coast.

Just because the European model was right with Sandy doesn't mean it will be right with Joaquin. Residents should still start preparing for a possible hurricane. But it will be interesting to see what happens.

The idea of Joaquin coming ashore is a scary scenario, but we just don't know if it's going to happen yet. Keep an eye on it. You'll see updates everywhere, including in this blog thingy.

Meanwhile, if you're anywhere in the eastern United States, keep an ear to forecasts. If there's any kind of flood warning, do what they advise. If they say evacuate now, do it. Now.

Every time there's a flood, people also drive onto flooded roads and get stuck. Or worse, washed away. I have no idea why people ignore the "Turn Around, Don't Drown slogan.

Please, don't be an idiot.

And we'll keep an eye on this weather event, which is pretty wild, if you ask me.

Jim Hansen Says Your Favorite Coastal Cities Are Going To Drown

If sea levels rise substantially with climate change
what do we do with this big South Florida neighborhood?  

This hasn't been the greatest week in climate change news.

We learned, as I noted Tuesday, that June, 2015 was the hottest on record, according to NOAA. And this year has a strong chance of being the hottest on record, beating the mark set last year.

Then former NASA chief climatologist Jim Hansen came along to really put people in a bad mood. For good reason, too.

Hansen is the guy in 1988 who brought climate change to the national conversation during congressional testimony during that hot summer.

Climate change has been, pardon the pun, a hot button issue ever since.

Hansen's science and general predictions since then about global warming have been spot on, but he's got a lot of people hoping he's totally wrong about how sea levels will change as the planet warms.

He says sea levels will rise by about 10 feet by 2100, much faster than outfits like the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC project. The IPCC has been saying the sea level rise would be something like three feet by the year 2100.

Many coastal cities tend to be just a few feet above sea level now, so you can see how a rise three times as much as current predictions would be a HUGE problem.

Here's how The Daily Beast put it as they described Hansen's latest research and comments on sea levels

"This roughly 10 feet of sea level rise - well beyond previous estimates - would render coastal cities such as New York, London and Shanghai uninhabitable. 'Parts of (our coastal cities) would still be sticking above the water,' Hansen says, 'but you couldn't live there.'"

We've heard these dire warnings about coastal cities and sea level rises again and again as we talk about global warming.

What's different here is Hansen says this coastal inundation will come much sooner than previous research projected.

Hansen's work indicates Earth's ice is melting faster and the oceans are getting higher much faster than expected.

If Hansen and the 16 other scientists he worked with on this are  right, it would be much harder than expected to buttress coastal cities against the rising tides. And they'd have to do it much faster.

It would cost untold billions of dollars to do this, and the faster you have to raise that kind of money, the harder it is.

As the Daily Beast noted, Hansen's work might throw a monkey wrench into the big United Nationsl climate summit in Paris this coming December.

The goal there is to limit Earth's warming to 2 degrees Celcius, but Hansen says even an increase of 2 degrees would be catastrophic, especially for coastal areas.

So, will everybody at the summit just give up and say we can't fix this and to hell with it? Who knows?

CAVEATS

There are some caveats to this Jim Hansen bombshell. The research isn't peer-reviewed yet, having been published in an open access journal in which peer review takes place after publication, not before.

It will be a while yet to see whether other scientists poke holes in Hansen's conclusions after they review it.

Climate scientist Michael Mann, a guy not shy about warning about the dangers of climate change, said he is a little skeptical of Hansen's assumptions that melting of ice shelves will accelerate constantly with time.

Might there be slowdowns in the rate of ice warming? We don't know. Still, Mann said Hansen's research is good in that it puts out provocative ideas for other scientists and policy makers to chew over.

It'll be interesting to see how well Hansen's research holds up under scrutiny. As I noted, he does have a track history of being very accurate with his work.


RISING TIDE IN SOUTH FLORIDA

If Hansen is right, one place that's particularly screwed if Hansen is right is South Florida

The Globe and Mail had a piece  about the trouble the southern tip of Florida is in if sea levels rise even slower than Hansen and his buddies suggest:

"Few places are as geographically ill-equipped to deal with rising water as southern Florida. Not only is much of the land barely a few feet above sea level, it also sits on a bed of porous limestone and sand, maked measures such as dikes far less effective.

Higher sea levels would eat away at the barrier islands that buffer the coast against powerful storms - which is hugely problematic, given that more powerful storms are one of the hallmarks of climate change. The rising water also threatens to slip inland and contaminate the wells that provide much of the region's drinking water."

Even for people in South Florida who live above the level that water is projected to rise to, they're still screwed. Yes, the house might be above water, says Harold Wanless, chair of the Department of Geological Science at the University of Miami.

But Winless said, sewage services are kaput, there might not be electricity, and the roads to and from this house might be under water. Sounds lovely, no?

Eventually, a lot of people are going to have to abandon South Florida. They're still building seaside condos and shopping centers and entertainment places like mad. So what happens to all that when the water rises?

As the Globe and Mail points out, what if insurance companies stop covering these at-risk properties? It you can't insure your house or building, it's basically worthless.

If people abandon lots and lots of threatened property, then what? Are banks left on the hook for abandoned mortgages? What happens to commerce in what's left of the area. Where do you put all the people who leave South Florida? Will there be severe economic ripple effects throughout the nation?

If Jim Hensen is right, things are going to get very VERY messy in the coming decades. And not just with the climate and sea levels alone.

New England, Northern New York To Freeze Tonight

It's been a summery May so far in New England, but
widespread frosts and freezes are likely in the
interior Northeast tonight.  

After a brutal winter, things went directly to summer this May around my house in St. Albans, Vermont and in the rest of New England and northern New York.

Temperatures have run well above normal, and we've had spates of summerlike 80 degree weather and humidity.

That had people asking me if it was OK for them to set out their tomato plants and other sensitive vegetation earlier than usual. I've cautioned against it, over and over.

Well, I told you not to do it, so don't cry to me if your sensitive garden plants bite the dust in tonight's cold.

Freeze warnings are up tonight for a big swath across much of New York and New England. Northern Pennsylvania is under the gun, too. It takes just one cold night in an otherwise warm month to really screw things up, and tonight's your proof.

If you're able to bring any frost sensitive plants indoors tonight, do it. If you put your tomato plants in your gardens, cover them up, but even that might not do any good.

It'll probably get cold enough, especially away from Lake Champlain and away from larger urban areas, like Montreal, Quebec and Albany, New York, to kill pretty much any tomato, pepper, cucumber or squash plant out there.

Attention garden centers and nurseries: Be ready for a flood of Saturday customers shopping for  plants to replace the ones frozen and blackened by tonight's freeze.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the coldest hollows in the Adirondacks and far northern New England get into the low 20s tonight. Most places away from the Champlain Valley will get below freezing.

The only place in northern New England that seems relatively safe from the frost is Grand Isle County, Vermont. That spot is surrounded by the comparatively warm Lake Champlain, and should pretty much escape the frost.

After the frost and freeze Saturday morning, it'll start to warm up, especially by Sunday.

All of next week, it's back to our early summer in the Northeast, with daily highs in the 80s, fairly high humidity and daily chances of afternoon thundershowers. A few places could maybe, just may e  reach 90 degree in the Northeast on Wednesday.

My advice? It's finally safe to put your tomatos and peppers out in your garden maybe on Monday, Memorial Day. Which is the traditional northern New England benchmark and when you should do this.

I told ya!

Despite U.S. Senate Snowball, Global Warming Might Be Ready To Intensify

U.S. Sen. James Inhofe, with a snow ball,  which was taking
its chances in hell, also known as the U.S. Senate Chamber.  

I've been focusing on the extreme winter weather in the Northeast, but there's news, as there always seems to be on the global warming front.

I'll dispense with the frivolous first. On the Senate floor in the U.S. Capitol Thursday, U.S. Sen. James Inhofe, R-Oklahoma tossed a snowball.   

That was all to prove his contention that global warming is a hoax, apparently.

It snowed in Washington Thursday. I know.  Imagine! Snow in Washington DC. In February!  Washington is obviously the center of Inhofe's universe. If it's the center of his universe, and it's cold there on a particular day, then global warming doesn't exist.

By Inhofe's logic, if his home state of Oklahoma has a day that gets up to 100 degrees this July, then global warming must be raging out of control. Of course I doubt Inhofe will say that on some torrid summer afternoon.

Of course one chilly day in Washington and one steamy day in Oklahoma say absolutely nothing about global warming, but that's totally besides the fact. Washington DC, as we all well know, doesn't run on logic.

I'm sure that Inhofe really doesn't believe he was disproving global climate change with his snowball. He was just having a bit of fun, and trolling people who are worried about climate change.

This past week, some scientists said we have new reasons to worry about climate change. The pace of it might be getting ready to increase.

Climate change deniers have said repeatedly that the world stopped warming at around 1998, so the whole thing is a hoax, according to them. Global warming, say the contrarians, has paused.

Actually, the world has kept warming since 1998. Most climate watchers say the hottest year in modern record was just last year - 2014. Some climate scientists I read regard the so-called global warming pause as the "faux pause."

However, there's absolutely no mistaking that the pace at which global temperatures have risen definitely slowed in the past 15 years or so.

Scienfic American and other publications, citing the journal Science, reported in the past week on research indicating the slow down in the rate of temperature change has to do with natural cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

The ocean cycles are called the Pacifc mulidecadel oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.  

These are a mouthful, but basically in the past decade or so, the Pacific Ocean has been cooling somewhat, due to these natural cycles. The Atlantic Ocean, in its cycle, has been warming, but the Pacific cooling outweighs the Atlantic's efforts, if you will.

The Pacific cooling acts as a drag on the rate at which the world overall warms. Perhaps had there been no man-made global climate change, the Earth would have been cooling somewhat over the past 15 years or so.

Cycles, by definition, eventually end. At some point, the Pacific multidecadel oscillation will shift into its warming phase. With or without human-caused climate change, when the Pacific goes into its warm phase, the Earth overall warms up slightly.

The concern among the scientists is, when the Pacific goes into its warm phase, it will team up with what us humans are doing and introduce a period of rapid warming across the globe

That kind of happened in the period from the 1970s to the late 1990s when the Pacific was in its warm phase. Previously, in the 1950s and 1960s, when the Pacific was in its cool phase, global temperatures barely warmed.

So when will the current cool Pacific phase end? The answer is pretty soon, we think.

Scientific American says Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State Univeristy, believes we're close to shifting into the warm phase in the Pacific, meaning the pace of global warming could accelerate in the next few years.

Researchers have not said precisely when the warm phase will begin, but since the phases last very roughly 20 years or so, the consensus seems to be the shift will come sometime between now and five years from now.

The reason for the lack of clarity over when things will shift is scientists still don't really fully understand what drives the phases, why they shift, and what triggers shifts.

Bob Henson at Weather Underground said signs in 2014 seemed to indicate the Pacific was shifting toward its warm phase, but that still could be a blip in the overall cool phase. Time will tell.

  

Saturday Morning New England Blizzard Update

An image of what the beast of a noreaster
is forecast to look like on Sunday.  

New England blizzard weekend is here! Are you excited?

Conditions were already sort of starting to go downhill Saturday morning and the disturbance that will give birth to the explosively forming nor'easter hasn't really formed yet.

It's still over the eastern Great Lakes, setting off snow showers and a few heavy snow squalls in places from Pennsylvania, western New York and Ontario.

The disturbance that will form the nor'easter is very energetic, so there's ares of blizzard conditions in those regions already.

That disturbance will, as expected, move east and fade today as the new storm gets going off the coast of New Jersey.

As it does so, the disturbance has so much energy that it will probably touch off a line of intense, gusty snow squalls, possibly accompanied by thunder, in the Mid-Atlantic states today.  Such big energy is rare for this type of storm in the formation stages and is reminiscent of a very cold version of the spring storms that can cause severe weather in the middle of the country.

Light snow is spreading across the Northeast. Where I live in northwestern Vermont as of 8:30 this morning, it was already miserable out. Light snow was falling the temperature had barely risen above zero. South winds out ahead of the eastbound disturbance are gusting to 25 mph, and there's a lot of blowing snow.

That south wind will bring temperatures only up to the mid-teens today, then as we all know, temperatures will totally crash tomorrow.

All the blizzard, winter storm, wind chill, coastal flood warnings and all other advisories that were in effect for the weekend in the Northeast are still in place

It's still going to be a very dangerous storm, especially Sunday, when things really wind up.

FORECAST CHALLENGES

Eastern New England is still under the bullseye for this thing. That's where they'll get the deepest snow and the strongest winds.  

The disturbance that will touch off the massive nor'easter in
New England was creating bursts of heavy snow
in Ontario Saturday morning, a testament to
the potential strength of this thing.  

The entire Northeast is going to be miserable and dangerous on Sunday, though, with blowing snow reducing visibility, even in areas that only get a couple inches of new snow.

Winds outside the blizzard zone in New England will still be strong enough to cause scattered minor damage and power failures.

The potential power failure are ominous considering how cold it's going to be.

There's still a lot of questions as to where the heaviest snow bands on the northwest flank of the storm might set up.

As was the case yesterday, snowfall on the coast of Massachusetts is the biggest question. The heaviest snow might set up right along the shore, from Portsmouth, New Hampshire down to Boston and a little south of that.

That will mean about a foot and a half of snow. Or, the heavy snow band could set up just a few miles to the east, meaning offshore. That would mean much, much less accumulation. As little as six inches.

People who live in the blizzard warning zone are understandably confused by the widely varying snowfall predictions among various weather forecasters, meteorologists and the media.

The wise thing to do is not get too hung up on the snowfall accumulations from this storm. That'll end up being an interesting exercise later for meteorologists on how to, or how not to forecast storms. Kind of a learning experience

For the general public, i.e. most of the rest of us, any way you slice it, two inches or two feet of accumulation,   this is a dangerous storm no matter what.

Here's what the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Taunton, Mass. (near Boston) have to say about this in their forecast discussion:

"Just a slight shift west or east up to the time of the storm can make a huge difference that can lead to angst and agony among fellow meteorologists.

It's not easy and (we) can understand everyone's frustration. Aside, we are reasonaby confident that the eastern half of southern New England will experience significant, if not life-threatening impacts."

Widespread areas of eastern New England are still under the gun for wind gusts of 50 or 60 mph, with gusts to 75 mph or so out on Cape Cod and the Islands. This will blow the immense amount of snow already on the ground into drifts of many feet tall.

The heavy snow on roofs, plus the pressure from the strong winds could cause structural damage. Power outages will be a problem, which is dangerous, given the extremely low temperatures.

Visibility will be zero, so it will be very easy to get stuck and or/lost out in the snowdrifts. The dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills could easily be fatal for anybody stuck outside, as frostbite and hyperthermia can come on in as little as 15 minutes.

You can see why the National Weather Service says this storm can be life threatening.  

Shoreline flooding is another hazard. The flooding won't be as intense as in the late January blizzard. Areas severely damaged by that late January blizzard, places like Scituate and Marshfield, Mass., face new damage from storm surges and battering waves.

The way this storm is set up, places like Cape Ann and Plum Island on the North Shore are also particularly vulnerable.

MAINE, CANADA

It still looks like eastern Maine, and in Canada, parts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are going to get the worst effects of this monster storm. Winds will gust to 60 mph and up to two feet of snow will come down in these areas.

Coastal flooding could extend into Nova Scotia, including the Halifax area, says Environment Canada. 

The Gulf of St. Lawrence could get interesting, says Environment Canada: "Strong ice pressure and ice pile up are possible Sunday night and Monday along the north facing coastline of the Gulf of St. Lawrence

Sounds awful.

As I mentioned, people in New England and the rest of the Northeast outside the blizzard warning zone are up for a tough Sunday.

Stay home there, too. Lots of blowing and drifting snow, and dangerous wind chills.

There's more winter trouble to come after this storm, but really. Let's get through this first.

Monday Morning Update: The Blizzard Of 2015 Is Still On, Big Time

I don't know if things will get THIS bad, but the
Northeast is still on track for a huge blizzard tonight
through Tuesday.  

A quick check of forecasts and computer models and such has revealed little change in the overall forecast for the Blizzard of 2015 in the northeastern United States.  

As the storm draws closer, and during the storm, us weather geeks will get excited or focus on all kinds of particular computer model outputs with this storm

Forecasters will keep fussing with picky details of the storm, based on new information that will keep churning out.

They'll raise or lower expected snow totals slightly in given areas, raise or lower wind speeds, that kind of thing.

For the general public, don't get too hung up on subtle tweaks in the forecast. Whether you get 15 or 20 or 30 or 40 inches of badly windblown snow, the impacts are going to be HUGE.

In that respect, who really cares if you get 23 or 24 inches of snow?  I'll get into some of the picky details a bit later in this post.

Already, the effects of this storm are being felt, and it hasn't really even started snowing yet. Airlines are cancellling flights left and right, and by early Monday morning, more than 2,000 were gone by the wayside for today and tomorrow.

If you're planning on driving anywhere in the Northeast today, don't bother. You'll probably make it to where you're going today, as things won't be too bad, but then you'll be stuck there as the blizzard blasts in tonight and tomorrow.  And who knows how long it will take to clear the roads when the snow tapers off Wednesday?

There's still time to get ready this morning and early afternoon. Especially if you live in the blizzard warning zone, lay in some supplies in case you're stuck at home for a few days.

Though I wouldn't panic like this guy:



Instead of panicking over BREAD AND MILK!!!  get some nonperishable food (in case the power goes out and the refrigerator doesn't work) your medications- enough to last several days, some bottled water to drink and for hygiene, and some flashlights, batteries and that type of thing.  Oh, and make sure smoke and carbon monoxide detectors work and get some extra batteries for those, too.

You might want to keep your smart phones and such fully charged, too, in case the power does go out.

Once the storm starts, stay inside. Near the beginning of the storm during the day today and perhaps early this evening,  it won't be snowing that hard in most places so you might think, "This isn't so bad."

Then the real heavy stuff comes and you're stuck in your stalled, freezing car out on the Interstate until gawd knows when.  Not a nice place to die of exposure or carbon monoxide poisoning, let me tell you.

If you want to take pictures and video during the blizzard, go right ahead. But do it right near your house so you can get inside right away and not get stuck out there.

Check in on your elderly neighbors, too, to make sure they're doing OK during the blizzard.

As I noted, the overall forecast hasn't changed. Nobody has substantially changed the areas under blizzard or winter storm warnings. The expected areas of heaviest weather haven't shifted much at all.

If you want glimmers of good news (or bad, if you like extremes) there's a chance, just a chance, that New York City won't get as much snow as some of the higher end forecasts. But 18 to 24 inches at this point still looks like a good bet, and with winds expected to gust as high as 55 mph in the Big Apple, this is still going to be, as the National Weather Service puts it, a crippling and life threatening storm.

Up in New England, I see almost no changes in forecasts from Sunday evening. The National Weather Service headquarters in Taunton, Mass. is fussing with details of whether one or two particularly heavy snow bands set up northwest of the storm center and where those bands will be located.

Nobody is quite sure on that topic, but within those semi-stationary bands during the height of the storm is where we'll see the highest storm totals with this. Possible three feet or more.

I'm still the most worried about coastal flooding and storm surges with this storm, as that's what will cause the most destruction. It's hard to say whether the peak of the storm surges will come with Tuesday morning's high tide or during low tide a few hours later.

But in any event, definitely continue to expect coastal flooding and very nasty beach erosion. The flooding will be moderate in some areas, severe in a few others. I continue to worry that some houses in coastal Long Island, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Maine and especially Massachusetts could b badly damaged or destroyed.

Most of the snow in the blizzard region will be powdery, which means the strong winds will blow the snow off trees and power lines. That's a good thing, as that would minimize the risk of power failures. But with such strong winds, power failures are still a big threat.

In some coastal areas, like eastern Long Island, Cape Cod and the Islands, the snow could end up being wet and heavy and sticky. And those same areas are the ones that are likely to get the strongest winds, up to or even exceeding 70 mph in spots during the height of the storm.

With such strong winds and wet snow, the threat of long lasting power failures is greatest in the spots I just mentioned.

The storm, as forecast last night, will extend well into central and northern New England, where winter storm warnings are up for about a foot of snow,

The big snows look like they'll miss far northwestern New England, where it looks like at most, just a few inches of snow from Burlington, Vermont on north and west.

Don't expect the snow to melt anytime soon once the blizzard is over. Colder than normal weather is likely for probably the next couple of weeks, with maybe one or two days thrown in that aren't too, too cold.

It might even snow in the blizzard zone again on Friday, but that storm, if it forms, won't be anything close to what's coming tonight and tomorrow.