Early Start To North Country Severe Weather Season

A line of strong showers and storms that prompted severe thunderstorm
warnings in New York and western Vermont Friday were nothing
like this biggie near Sheldon in May, 2018. Instead, Friday's weather
consisted of a quick moving line of mostly light showers that
brought strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. 

Some severe thunderstorm warnings went up Friday afternoon in northern New York and western Vermont, giving us an early start to the spring and summer severe weather season.

There were several reports to the National Weather Service of tree damage mostly across northern New York.  There was also a report of several small trees down around Swanton, Vermont.

This was pretty early to be getting this type of weather in the North Country. The first severe thunderstorms of the season usually don't crop up until around May.

These weren't classic late spring or summer thunderstorms, of course. Some things about the strong storms were similar to what you'd get, say, in June, but most aspects of them were not.

Very often, strong thunderstorms around here develop along or near something known as a pre-frontal trough.  A pre-frontal trough is a skinny area of lower air pressure that marks a wind shift.  This feature usually comes through, from west to east a few hours ahead of a cold front that will also come in from west to east.

In the summer, the air of ahead of this trough is often quite humid and unstable. The trough adds lift to the atmosphere, allowing towering thunderstorm clouds to grow. These summer thunderstorms will usually produce torrential downpours, frequent lightning, strong, damaging winds and hail.

Friday's storms weren't quite like that. There wasn't much lightning involved and rainfall was modest, with most places getting less than a tenth of an inch of rain. This line of storms also zipped through much more quickly than storms do in the summer.

Strong winds were blowing several thousand feet overhead Friday, and the thunderstorm clouds did reach high enough to grab some of that wind, bringing it down to the surface in damaging gusts.

The air was more stable over and east of the Green Mountains, so the storms weakened a lot by the time they got there.  That explains the lack of damage reports east of the northern Champlain Valley.

The early taste of severe weather in Vermont and New York is most definitely over.  It's back to wintry stuff for a little while.

As previously advertised, this weekend will be mostly sunny during the day, clear at night and cold throughout.  A number of places in the north and mountains won't even  make it above freezing today and tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the single numbers and low teens, with some late season subzero readings likely in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdomf of Vermont.

There's lots of questions about a potential quick-hitting storm Monday afternoon and night. There's the potential for several inches of snow with this, especially in the mountains.  However, the computer models were still arguing over this as of Saturday morning.

Some of those models said all of Vermont would get at least some snow.  Others said northern areas might miss out.  Still other forecasts say it will be a bit too warm for snow in the valleys.

As usual, stay tuned.

Vermont Storm Update: Still Very Windy, Wet And Wet-Snowy Thursday

National Weather Service updated snowfall prediction map issued
Wednesday afternoon. It still looks like this is going to be
an elevation snowstorm in Vermont. Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. Yellow and orange
areas should expect more than six inches of snow.

Since this is going to be a pretty good storm, it's worth updating the situation, as you're going to see a lot of rain and/or snow Thursday morning. Some of us will also see a ton of wind.  You'll need to deal with it, so here you go:

THE SETUP 

This afternoon, light north winds funneled chilly air southward down the Champlain Valley, so it ended up being cooler today than expected.  (Elsewhere in Vermont, the low level cool air couldn't make it in, so today's highs ended up in the mid to upper 30s, as forecast.

This subfreezing air today, along with occasional light snow, doesn't really mean the Champlain Valley is in for a colder, snowier storm than expected tonight and tomorrow.  In fact, as of late afternoon, the snow flurries here in St. Albans had already changed to a some light sleet, mixed with a few drops of freezing rain.  That's an indication that a surge of warmer air is on its way.

For most of tonight, at least until midnight, any precipitation that does fall will be very light and spotty.  It's not until the storm pushes in from the southwest, with its strong weather front, that heavy precipitation will get going after midnight.

HEAVY RAIN/SNOW

That front will initially bring a surge of somewhat milder air, so the heavy stuff that comes down in the valleys early Thursday seems like it will be mostly rain. However, with the weather front and storm itself strengthening as it comes in, that could cool the atmosphere a bit to produce wet snow, so it's no guarantee the valleys will be mostly rain.  Let's just call that rain scenario likely, but it's possible you could be surprised.

If it is mostly rain, it come down hard for a time in the morning. There's still a fair amount of ice and snow on the ground in northern areas.  Storm drains are clogged with ice, too. Expect some urban flooding with this rain, if the forecast comes out as expected.  More than half an inch of rain in just a few hours is expected, which would be enough to cause that kind of problem on town and city streets, and maybe basements.

River and stream flooding won't be much of an issue because a large share of the precipitation that will come down in the higher elevations will be snow.

The higher in elevation you go, the more likely you are to get snow.  It still doesn't look like there will be much in mid-elevations, say around 1,000 feet. Those areas could manage a couple or thre einches. However, it's still possible we'd get a surprise with more, but so far, it's looking like a no.

If you're up above 2,000 feet in elevation in most of Vermont, you've got a great shot of getting six inches or more of snow.  Snowfall rates up there could be in the one to two inch per hour range. Especially given that it will probably be a relatively wet and heavy snow, I wouldn't drive toward the mountains Thursday morning.

HIGH WINDS

Wind gust forecast from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
That dark orange stripe along the western slopes of the Green Mountains
in eastern Rutland and Addison counties forecast gusts of at
least 60 mph early Thursday. Lighter orange shading indicates
gusts of at least 40 mph. 

Adding to this mix is the expectations that winds could get quite strong on the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains. I mentioned this in this morning's post, and everything still seems to be aligning toward those winds.  

The strongest winds would come before or near dawn in Rutland and Addison counties, closest to those western slopes.

Winds could easily gust past 60 mph. With some snow loading on trees and power lines in higher spots, this is a recipe for power problems in and near communites like Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Mendon, Goshen, Chittenden, Brandon and Starksboro.

Those high winds along the western slopes will spread north around or just after dawn to western slope communities like Huntington, Bolton, Jericho, Underhill, Cambridge and Bakersfield.

In those towns the wind will be a little lighter than points south along the Greens, but the gusts will be enough to risk some power line and tree issues.

The bottom line is you should prepare for a complicated Thursday morning commute, regardless of whether you get mostly rain, mostly snow, or strong winds.  You might want to charge your devices ahead of time, in case the power goes out.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

After the front passes, heading north and east, precipitation everywhere will change to snow but become lighter. Winds will become somewhat lighter, but remain gusty. Temperatures Thursday afternoon should keep falling through the 30s and well down into the 20s.

Given that, when you're returning home from work Thursday evening, expect slick spots from continued light snow, and water from the morning freezing on roads.

INTERESTING POST-STORM ACTION

Perhaps the most interesting aspects of this storm will actually be something that will happen after the storm actually passes by.  It could have some effects here in Vermont, but first I need to set things up for you.

The storm will head north into Quebec, and there will be strong west winds behind the storm.  As I mentioned this morning, the Great Lakes aren't frozen like they usually are this time of year.  The strong winds, unstable air and the open waters of the lakes will set up some huge lake effect storms downwind from the lakes.

There's strong indications that an epic lake effect snow band will generate itself on Lake Superior, get more energy as it moves east-southeast across Lake Huron, then heads due east across Lake Ontario into the areas near and south of Watertown, New York.

This is especially true south of Watertown in the infamous snow belt area called the Tug Hill Plateau. They are so going to get slammed.

There's a blizzard warning for this area near and south of Watertown for an expected three to four feet of snow on the Tug Hill Plateau and one to two feet in surrounding areas.  This will be propelled by winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph.  You can imagine the huge drifts, zero visibility and difficulties with this situation.

Vermont won't get anything like that. But I've seen that in cases where there's such a powerful lake effect band with such strong winds, some Vermont higher elevations can get quite a bit of snow.

The lake effect snow band, while slightly weakened will extend across the Adirondacks. Generally, the remains of these snow bands skip the Champlain Valley as the Adirondacks block the moisture associated with these snow squalls.  Still, little upper level disturbances in this fast west to east flow behind the storm can help bring some snow from this lake effect into the Champlain Valley.

People in the Champlain Valley won't get much snow out of this, but an inch or two of accumulation could slicken up the roads Thursday night and Friday.  Just sayin'.

The real point of this little story is what happens when the remains of this snow band hit the central and northern Green Mountains. Since this thing is pretty narrow, not everybody in the mountains will get a lot of snow. But in my opinion there's the potential for six or more inches of snow somewhere in the mountains of northern Vermont after the main storm.

All because of this lake effect snow band.  The snow band could move back and forth for a time spreading some snow through the entire Green Mountain chain north of Killington. Or it could focus on a specific area and really come down.  Parts of the Northeast Kingdom could also get in on this action, especially since weather patterns suggest the atmospher might interact with parts of the lake effect stuff up there.

It's not certain all this will happen. But I think it might. The National Weather Service in South Burlington isn't focusing on this right now, because they have their hands full with the immediate storm.  This post-storm snow thingy is just something to watch.

Mostly because it could help make for another great weekend of  skiing and riding, between Thursday's high elevation snow and the post-storm snow showers.

AFTER THAT

It'll be a pretty chilly, wintry weekend across Vermont, which is to be expected as the calendar just turns from February to March. But another period of warm-ish weather seems likely for the first half of next week.  Again, that's something you have to expect now that we're getting into March.

Storm Update: Slushy, Windy, Then Cold

That snowfall forecast map from the Natonal Weather Service
again.  Valley locations might just get a slushy coating
out of this, if current forecasts verify. Heavy accumulations
would be limited to the places about 2,000 feet above
sea level. 

As usual, we'll update the status of that expected storm now that it's actually closer to hitting us here in Vermont.

Since yesterday, it seems the forecast models have warmed up this storm locally just a smidge.  If that comes to pass, most places around here won't get too much snow, except in the high elevations.

There are a few winter weather advisories for snow. One is in the two southernmost counties of Vermont, where two to six inches of wet snow is likely at elevations above 1,000 feet.

Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks over in New York could get similar amounts.

The rest of us, at least those of us not way up high in elevation can expect one to three inches of slush and goop, along with a cold rain, at least during the main storm.

That being said, if the temperatures drop a degree or two more than expected late tonight and Thursday morning, heavier snow would still be in play.

In fact, I do detect a slight disagreement between the National Weather Service offices in South Burlington, Vermont and Gray, Maine.   The Maine forecasting office is a little more bullish on snow accumulation near the Connecticut River, which would imply a bit more snow in eastern Vermont than is currently being forecast.

But not much, and the differences are all just noise.

By the way, if you plan to venture to Quebec tomorrow, don't. There will be wet snow and strong winds up there, especialy from about Montreal north. It'll be pretty messy.

Some light snow and rain will harass us today, but the main show still looks like it will hit late tonight and the first half of Thursday.  

The storm center will be over Lake Ontario and will swing a strenthening front through here late tonight and Thursday.  This looks like it will produce a relatively brief, but heavy thump of precipitation.

As it stands now, it looks like that big thump of precipitation will mostly be a cold rain in the valleys, but again, don't be surprised if more snow enters the picture. Temperatures are marginal.  The front that is coming through will be frisky enough to possibly give a few of us a nice rumble of thunder or two.

Strong southeast winds ahead of this will cross over the the Green Mountains, and possibly produce damaging winds along the immediate west slopes of those Mountains, especially in parts of Bennington, Rutland and Addison counties.

Places like Mendon, Rutland, Goshen, Brandon and Starksboro could see wind gusts of 60 mph or even a little more than that.  Winds along the west slopes of the Greens further north than this will also be strong and gusty, but perhaps not quite as strong as areas further south.

After the storm goes by we'll get three days of chilly weather, and lots of snow showers in the central and northern Green Mountains.

Part of that will be coming off Lake Ontario. Lake effect snowstorms out in western New York are somewhat rare this late in winter because much of the Great Lakes are usually frozen over this time of year.

It's been a warm winter, so those lakes are mostly ice-free. This opens the door for a big lake effect snowstorm in parts of New York. The Tug Hill plateau, the snowbelt near the lakes not far from Watertown, could get up to three feet of snow out of this.

Nothing like that here in Vermont. The high elevation snow Thursday night through Saturday will be measured in inches, not feet.

After a chilly weekend, the seesaw continues with a quick burst of warmer than normal temperatures for the first half of next week. That's at least the way it looks now

Strong Winds To Prevent My Cleanup From Strong Winds

One of my back yard burn piles from two years ago.  I was
planning another tomorow, but strong winds might
prevent me from burning up the debris from, you guessed it,
strong winds from earlier this year.

The town of St. Albans, Vermont was nice enough to grant me a burn permit for  tomorrow so I can get rid of a lot of brush that has accumulated on my property.

Much if not most of those branches, trunks, twigs, leaves and whatnot are storm debris from the past year.

A lot of it is from that epic storm on November 1, which took down a whole tree on my property, and did other damage.

Here's the rub: It looks like my cleanup from past strong winds will be canceled by..........strong winds.

Winds in the Champlain Valley are expected to gust over 40 mph tomorrow.  With snow on the ground my brush pile wouldn't spread and cause a forest fire or anything like that, no matter how windy it gets.  But really. You don't want to try and manage a brush pile fire with that kind of wind.

Maybe some other time. We'll see how it goes.

Here's the reason for tomorrow's strong wind. A pretty strong high pressure system is coming in to clear our skies later today and give us a very chilly night tonight.  Many of us will get into the single digits.

That high departs to the east tomorrow.  Like I said, it's strong, and a pretty good sized storm system will press in from the west.

The squeeze play between the high pressure and the storminess will come over Vermont tomorrow afternoon and night, triggering those strong south winds.

The Champlain Valley will further squeeze the air flow between the Green and Adirondack mountains.  That means the wind will be especially strong there.  So instead of cleaning up my storm debris, a little bit might be added to it if winds go well above 40 mph in gusts, which they might do.'

The National Weather Service might issue a wind advisory for the Champlain Valley for tomorrow. It's possible we'll have a few downed limbs and power failures once again.

On the east side of the Green Mountains, the winds won't mix down into the deeper valleys. So when rain arrives late Sunday night, it'll take the form of freezing rain for awhile in some of those valleys.

We are in for a thaw with these south winds and the storm to our west.  That means temperatures will rise into the 40s Monday and stay there into Tuesday before it turns pretty cold again.
'
The thin snow cover in the valleys will disappear for awhile with this rainy thaw, but you do tend to get those this time of year.  For the mountains, this thaw will make the quality of the snow take a hit at the ski areas, but grooming and snow making will fix it as we get colder than normal again by the middle of next week.

Also, for those of you who say I should grind up the wood instead of burning it and releasing carbon dioxide and other stuff into the air, you have a point.  Problem is, there's such a great volume of stuff that I have neither the time or the money to do it.  The larger tree trunks are being made into wood chips by a tree service we have hired.  I'm burning up the multitudes of smaller sized branches that have accumulated.

Not a perfect solution, but so be it.

Stormy Days Like Today, Yesterday Show Why You Shouldn't Go Out On Lake

Possible microburst over Lake Champlain west of Burlington Tuesday.
(Click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see.). Even if
this wasn't a microburst and even though the storm wasn't severe
when it came ashore in Vermont, this illustrates why you
should not be out on the lake when thunderstorms develop. 

Today in Vermont, we once again have several weather threats,   including strong to severe thunderstorms with locally damaging winds, a lot of lightning, and maybe even localized flooding.

Which is a great reason to stay off of places like Lake Champlain today.

That idea was well illustrated to me yesterday when thunderstorms that were (mostly) not as strong as today's expected weather developed.  

Tuesday's storms developed in the Adirodacks and drifted slowly across Lake Champlain into Vermont. As the photo in this post shows, one storm looked like it got ferocious when it was part way across the lake. There was a possible, dangerous microburst out there.

If the microburst occurred, it didn't last long and faded away before the storm came ashore in and around Burlington. Winds gusted to just 32 mph during the storm at the Burlington International Airport, where the National Weather Service is located. I'd estimate gusts along Burlington's lakeshore were about 40 mph. Windy, but manageable.

So the storm wasn't severe on land, and there were no reports of storm damage anywhere in northern New York and Vermont. I only saw a few twigs and small branches down. No biggie.

But the lake was wild, going from calm to having large waves in an incredibly short period of time. I could see big crashing waves slamming into the Burlington breakwater. Lightning strikes hitting the lake couldn't have helped.

It had been a beautiful, sunny day. Then it wasn't. Which means people on boats should always keep their eyes open for developing storms, know what they look like and head to the docks when they see them forming.

The National Weather Servicie in South Burlington did have a special weather statement on yesterday's storm, which said in part: "If you are on or near Lake Champlain, move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm."  Note the exclamation point in that statement.

Last week, two kayakers drowned in Malletts Bay around Colchester during a strong thunderstorm.  I don't know if the storm was directly related, but before the storm it was sunny and hot and calm, and then, suddenly, it wasn't. Were these victims caught unaware as the storm bore down on them?

STORM THREATS TODAY

Areas in yellow have a slight risk of severe storms today.
Darker green is marginal risk. 

Today is going to be a more hazardous day than yesterday, as I've already mentioned. As the NWS in South Burlington, Vermont explains it, the heating of the sun getting through the mostly cloudy skies this morning will be enough to get the air destabilized.  

Wind shear - which is wind shifting and/or changing speeds with height - will be increasing during the peak heating hours. That'll help to develop thunderstorms and organize them.

This organization, in turn could create bands of strong to severe storms. These potentially severe storms are most likely south of Route 2, the NWS says, but could happen anywhere in Vermont.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the southern two thirds of Vermont in a slight risk zone of severe storms, meaning they expect scattered severe storms, with one or two perhaps becoming intense. Far northern areas are in a marginal risk zone.

The main risk from these storms would be damaging wind gusts, some hail, cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours. Due to the wind shear above, there is a very, VERY tiny, but still not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado. But don't count on that.

The timing of the worst storms looks like it will be somewhere between mid-afternoon and early evening.

Note that as always only some areas will see damaging thunderstorms. It'll be hit and miss. A classic example was last week, when a severe storm caused widespread damage in places like Swanton, Highgate and Sheldon, while places just a couple miles south suffered absolutely no harm.

Areas north of Route 2 are slightly less at risk of severe storms, but have another problem.  The center of a weak area of low pressure will pass over or near northern New York and far northern Vermont.

Thicker cloud cover there will help tamp down on severe thunderstorms a bit, but this little low pressure area, working with humid air will tend to focus downpours in this region. Although it has been fairly dry in recent weeks, intense downpours can still cause local flooding, such as small streams going nuts, urban street flooding, washouts on steep hills, damaged culverts, that sort of thing.

The National Weather Service's Excessive Rainfall Outlook puts northern zones of Vermont and New York in a slight risk zone for flash flooding.

It'll be somewhat calmer tomorrow as a cold front starts to come through, but there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms around. It's still looking cool for the weekend.

Tuesday Update: Today And Tonight's Winter Storm About To Strike

Tuesday morning's National Weather Service forecast map. Darker orange areas
get the most snow, around a foot, if this map comes to pass
Blue and yellow areas get the least snow and sleet, around 5-6 inches.

As of mid-morning Tuesday, clouds were lowering, thickening and turning darker as the well-anticipated winter storm is now on our doorstep.

The forecast hasn't changed too much since last evening's updates, but there's still a high bust potential in the predictions.

THE DETAILS:

The front part of the storm is pretty certain. Snow will spread from southwest to northeast across Vermont between 1 and 5 p.m today. When the snow hits, it'll go from just flurries to fairly heavy snow quite quickly, at most within an hour or two.

So, if you see flurries start in your location and think you'll leave work at that point to beat the heavier snow and the slick roads home, it won't work, unless you live less than five minutes from where you live. Snowfall rates in this first initial heavy band will probably be one to two inches per hour, with locally higher amounts.

That's pretty impressive, and is close to the heaviest snow rates possible in this neck of the woods. The National Weather Service in Albany suggests there's a slim but real possibility of thunder snow with this initial band as far north as far southern Vermont. We'll see.

Don't let the chilly temperatures this morning fool you. There will be plenty of warm air aloft for this, so mixed precipitation definitely enters the picture. And temperatures will slowly and steadily rise now through Wednesday morning, from the single numbers this morning to low 30s by Wednesday morning.

Forecasters are also sure that sleet will follow the snow this evening from southwest to northeast across at least a portion of Vermont. That's where the bust potential in the forecast comes in.

The last bit of sun glow in the southeastern sky over St. Albans,
Vermont this morning as the next winter storm approaches.
Look for plenty of snow and sleet starting this afternoon. 

As we said yesterday, the main storm is going by to our west, while another storm forms along the Northeast U.S. coast.

When that coastal storm gets going, it'll cut the northward progress of the sleet off at the pass. But where will that be?

Where the northward advance of the sleet stops depends entirely on how fast and how strongly the coastal low develops. If forecasters are off by just a tiny bit, the current forecasts will be wrong. How wrong at this point is anybody's guess.

At this point, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking the sleet tonight will get as far north as the central Adirondacks and very roughly up to Route 2 in Vermont. North of that, the thinking is precipitation through the whole storm will be almost exclusively snow, with just the chance of a few brief ice pellets thrown in overnight.

Of course, when and where the sleet comes in depends on much accumulation we'll get.  In places where little or no sleet falls, the snow accumulation will obviously be the most. Those places look like it will be about a foot by Wednesday.

Here's where that is most likely: The thinking remains the big winners in the snow department for New York will be the St. Lawrence Valley and  a few places in the Adirondacks.

In Vermont, the deepest accumulations will be way up in northwestern Vermont in places like North Hero, Alburgh, St. Albans and Highgate. That's the third time this winter a big storm dumped the most snow in these locations. More often than not, far northwestern Vermont misses out on the biggest snow accumulations.

The far northern Green Mountains also look like they will be snow winners.

Southern Vermont is at risk for freezing rain with this, too.  I would say freezing rain could get as far north as Route 4, but again, this could be off by a fair amount. Far southern Vermont could get enough freezing rain to ice up trees enough to break a few branches and power lines.

Strong winds are still expected to be a factor along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, especially in central and southern Vermont. Winds there could gust to or over 50 mph. That also could bring down a few trees and power lines, especially in areas that get freezing rain.

As noted yesterday, the strong downslope winds on the western slopes will cut down on precipitation.  Between the sleet and the drying effects of those winds, parts of Rutland and Addison counties, for instance, might only get four or five inches of snow and sleet. Even that might be generous.

The Connecticut River Valley from White River Junction south look like they will get six inches of snow or sleet - or less out of this.

As the coastal low takes charge tomorrow morning, mixe precipitation will go back to snow, then taper off across most of the area.

The bottom line is this afternoon's commute, and the one Wednesday morning will be tricky regionwide.

Across northern and central Vermont, the snow looks like it might pick up in intensity again for a time Wednesday afternoon and evening, which would prolong the risk of slippery roads in the region.

ELSEWHERE

This storm is creating a mess from the Midwest to Maine.  Lots of places have already gotten a ton of freezing rain and sleet, and that trend will continue the rest of today. ]

For the second time this month, Chicago was under an ice storm warning early this morning. Roads are a mess out there, with trees and power lines weighted down by a lot of ice. It's going to turn windy later today in Chicago, meaning, more icy trees and branches might come down.

Southern Michigan is experiencing the same problem as Chicago this morning. A lot of freezing rain with its associated damage is likely tonight in places like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York and parts of southern New England.

Further south, the rain is coming down in torrents. Flood watches and warnings extend from Tennessee to the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania.

It's been a particularly stormy winter nationwide, from Hawaii to Maine, and this is the latest assault. An active weather pattern is likely to continue through the end of the month, but of course, it's hard to tease out more than a few days in advance the particulars of how each storm will behave.

Vermont Update: Wind To Diminish; Snow To Come, Then The Cold

I'll have lots of twigs and small branches to pick up from my
St. Albans, Vermont yard today. Winds here early this morning gusted
to at least 45 mph. This photo is just one small corner of my
yard. At least there's no large fallen branches or trees.

As expected, a little snow, mixed in some areas with a bit of sleet and maybe a bit of freezing drizzle, swept across northern New York and Vermont early this morning. Accumulations were very light.

A bit more snow or a  mix might come down the rest of this morning, but this is no big deal.

However, all that wind we've had this morning, especially in the Champlain Valley, is a clue to the active weather we're having through Thursday.

"Active" does not imply a huge storm, but it's going to be inclement to say the least for a couple days.

There's a good deal of energy in the atmosphere, thanks to that busy, fast, generally west-to-east jet stream I talked about yesterday. The Northeast is being affected by a lot of that energy in the atmosphere, leading to wind, precipitation, and, at least out in Ohio, some locally strong thunderstorms. That's pretty far north for that type of thing in the depths of winter.

That there are those strong storms forecast in Ohio is another indication of how the atmosphere is roiled. It's just that there's not a great moisture supply, so nobody will get any especially heavy precipitation out of this storminess.

Winds early this morning in this roiled atmosphere have been gusting as high as 60 mph on Burton Island in Lake Champlain and 56 mph in Alburgh.  Many gusts of 45  mph were reported a bit more inland from the lake. That's enough to cause a smattering of power failures in Chittenden and Franklin counties. My yard in gusty St. Albans, Vermont is now littered with plenty of twigs and small branches.

The winds should diminish this afternoon while we're in a break in the precipitation.

More weather coming in from the west should arrive tonight. It will be mild, so the Champlain Valley and southern low elevations in Vermont should start off with a mix of rain and snow. Mid and high elevations will get into some wet snow tonight.

Precipitation will gradually become all snow everywhere Wednesday as cold air finally begins to bleed in from the north. Snow showers will gradually lighten up during later Wednesday night and Thursday, but keep going, especially in the mountains.

This looks like a terrific situation for snow lovers in the Green Mountains and along the western slopes. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks look like winners in this upcoming situation, too.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get many reports of six inches or more of new powder in these locations by Thursday morning. A few spot locations in the mountains could approach a foot of new accumulation. (Look out, Jay Peak!)

Early indications are most of the rest of the northern half to two thirds of Vermont is in for three to eight inches of fresh powder, with maybe a little less in the central and southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont lowlands, where some rain will fall tonight and Wednesday morning.

A pretty good chunk of Arctic air is still forecast to break off from the frigid icebox of central and northern Canada and makes its way into New England.

The bad news is this will be the strongest cold wave so far this winter in Vermont and the rest of New England. The good news is this won't be anything extreme for January.

Friday through Sunday, expect high temperatures in the single numbers and teens region wide (coldest on Friday).  Lows will be below zero each day, with the coldest hollows getting close to 20 below.

Forecasters are still watching for a remote possibillity of a coastal storm later Sunday or Monday, but that to me and many others is looking very doubtful at best.

Temperatures should bump back up to near normal early next week.

Wicked Fast Jet Stream Over Pacific Contributing To Our Changeable Weather

Jet stream forecaast for the Pacific Ocean between Asia and
North America for this coming Saturday The fast flow (in pink and orange)
denotes a fast west to east flow that is influencing the weather
across the United States, pushing repeated storms
into the West Coast, which turn into fast moving
disturbances racing generally west to east across the
United States. 

Lately, there's been a hugely fast west-to-east jet stream over the Pacific Ocean from Asia all the way to the North American west coast, and that's been influencing our weather here in Vermont.

This state of affairs began before Christmas and will continue at least into the middle of this month, if not beyond.

I'll get into how this affects Vermont in a bit. -

This jet stream has been sending a series of fast-moving storms into the West Coast from central California north into British Columbia, Canada.

These storms have been, and will continue to dump bursts of heavy rain and blinding mountain snow in these region

These have also brought damaging winds to California, Oregon, Washington and especially British Columbia over the past couple of weeks. Just over the weekend, Seattle had a gust to 60 mph, it's highest gust in 12 years. About 300,000 people were without power because of the storm.

The good news with this pattern is rain has been falling off and on through most of California, and a decent snowpack is building up in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.  That's great for the parched state's water supply.

Of course, a lot of those occasionally heavy rains are falling on massive areas scarred by last year's wildfires. Mudslides in one of these burn areas over the weekend closed the Pacific Coast Highway near Malibu. This is an area that was hit by a large wildfire late last year.

Several motorists, including rapper Soulja Boy, were trapped in the mud and debris on that highway. Everyone was rescued, nobody was hurt, but many of the cars were badly damaged or destroyed.

A couple video clips of the rough West Coast weather are at the bottom of this post.

THE OVERALL PATTERN

These storms have been zipping eastward across the United States, seemingly just on momentum alone. Most of the moisture from these storms get stripped off by the mountains in the West, so they become somewhat moisture-starved.

Some, but not all of the storms manage to pick up replacement moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which helps explain why the Southeast has been so wet lately.

All this energy from had been those strong storms on the West Coast is still mixed up with all this. Pressure gradients between the storms and brief high pressure systems have caused frequent bouts of windy weather coast to coast, including here in New England and Vermont.

I noticed winds gusted to 40 mph in Burlington Sunday. The next system Tuesday morning will bring gusts of 45 mph to the Champlain Valley. More gusty winds are in the forecast for Thursday.

This seemingly endless parade of storms running east to west across the nation have been blocking any long-lasting cold waves from invading the country. Behind each storm, a bit of Arctic air does get stripped off and sucked southward from Canada, giving brief cold snaps to the northern tier of states, especially here in New England.

Notice that temperatures were in the single digits either side of zero here in Vermont this morning with subzero wind chills.

Then the next storm comes along, scooping a bit of mild air up from the south to give us a quick warm spell. Then the cycle repeats, over and over again. This is why the weather has been so changeable here in Vermont since Christmas: Warm to cold back to warm again.

The relatively flat east to west jet stream means most of the storms don't get a chance to become super strong. The last really substantial storm we had was on December 21 and 22, which caused flooding across Vermont. We've had six quickie storms since then, all of them pretty minor.

It's January, so it's not too hard for some pretty cold air to briefly bleed in between storms.

BOTTOM LINE FORECAST IN VERMONT

The first round of snow this week, late tonight and Tuesday
morning, will only amount to an inch or two for most
of us, with possibly even less than that in the Champlain Valley.

Here's how the next few days look The next one coming along tonight and Tuesday morning will bring some more relatively light snow, with patchy valley rain.

The strong winds, those 45 mph gusts in the Champlain Valley and 35 mph gusts elsewhere in Vermont, will peak late tonight and during the early and mid-morning hours on Tuesday.

Total snow accumulations with this initial burst will be one to three inches, with locally less than that in parts of the Champlain Valley.

There will be a lull in the action Tuesday afternoon and evening. No cold air will be able to sneak in during this time, so it will remain mild, with highs in the 30s to near 40 Tuesday and temperatures staying in the low 30s for most of us Tuesday night.

Another disturbance in this quick jet stream flow will come in late Tuesday and Wednesday. This one looks like it might be good enough to dump several inches of snow, perhaps two to six inches of powder, by Wednesday afternoon in much of Vermont.

The Champlain Valley might miss out again: It will be mild, so there, some of the precipitation, especially earlier on Wednesday might come down as a cold rain, which would minimize accumulations.

Overall, these frequent snows are great for winter sports prospects this month in the Green and White Mountains, and the Adirondacks.

After this relatively snowy period, the door will open for a piece of an Arctic high pressure system will break off and head south into New England, giving us the strongest, or nearly the strongest cold snap we've had all winter. This will hit next weekend, but don't worry too much about it.

Snow showers, mostly in the mountains, will continue amid the strong northwest wind gusts and falling temperatures Thursday, introducing a good three-day long cold snap.

It will be a run of the mill January cold snap, nothing we haven't seen before. We'll gethighs in the single numbers to near 10 and lows mostly in the 5 to 15 below range over the upcoming weekend. However, the west-to east race of storms will continue, though, so the cold snap won't last long.

It's possible, but not definite, that the next weather disturbance that originated in the Pacific Ocean could create a coastal storm that could dump some snow on us toward next Monday. That is highly uncertain but something to watch. One computer model gives us a substantial snowstorm, most of the others forecast not much of a storm and little or no snow for the region. We'll see.

Beyond that, the fast air flow across the nation will probably continue and our changeable, back and forth Vermont January weather will continue as it has since the start of the month.

Here are some of those weather video clips from the stormy West Coast.

First, a news clip about the mud slide along the Pacific Coast Highway:



Here's some footage of wind storm damage in Washington State from Saturday night and early Sunday morning:

Stormy Weather New England's Fate Today

If Ethel Waters were still alive, she's love to be in New England today.

A foggy Champlain Valley, Vermont commute home Friday
afternoon. Strong winds are clearing out the fog once and
for all today. 

She first popularized the song "Stormy Weather," and that's on the agenda today.  Wind, rain and even snow will pummel the region today. There's even the slightest chance of yet another brief tornado or two in eastern New England.

The Champlain Valley of Vermont has been in dense fog since Friday afternoon. The good news is wind will finally clear out the fog this morning, where it hasn't already.

The bad news is that in many areas, the wind will become strong enough to toss down a few branches, and cause some scattered power failures.

The wind will be strongest along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains today and this evening, and stronger yet across eastern New England. More on that in a bit.

As of early this morning, most of the rain avoiding northwestern Vermont. That's temporary. The storm center was around Connecticut this morning and strengthening rapidly as it moves northeast across New England.

That will cause rain to blossom back up over northern New York and pretty much all of Vermont by afternoon, if not sooner. Radar trends as of 6:30 this morning already showed increasing rains in New York, heading toward northwestern Vermont.

The rain is the least of our problems, at least in Vermont. The rest of New England will have local flooding problems as the rain will really come down there. There were already a variety of flood advisories and watches out for that region, and that trend will continue all day.

The front, warm side of this storm is particularly dynamic. The stormy weather pattern of late has produced at least 30 tornadoes since Halloween from Texas to Florida. (See a video at the bottom of this post of a Florida tornado that happened Friday.)

As this storm got going, at least one other twister reportedly touched down in Mount Airy, Maryland. Another possible tornado partially collapsed an Amazon distribution center in Baltimore, killing two people. There were also a couple of tornado warnings in southeastern Pennsylvania overnight, but I don't know if anything touched down

Before dawn this morning, there were already a couple of severe thunderstorms in southern New England, racing toward the northeast. There's enough spin in the atmosphere to potentially make some of these storms rotate. So there's a very slight, but non-zero chance of brief tornadoes today in eastern Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, coastal New Hampshire and the eastern half of Maine.

Yep, New England seems intent on holding on to its new, tornado alley reputation.

As the storm rapidly strengthens today, so will the wind. Most of New England and eastern New York are under either wind advisories or high wind warnings today.  The wind will blast in from the west.

The wind flow is such that the gusts will ride up and over the mountains. As the wind crests the Green Mountains in Vermont the air flow will grab stronger winds from up above the ridgelines and bring them down to the surface in many areas along the eastern slopes of the mountains. Gusts in those areas could easily reach 55 mph.

On the highest mountain summits of the Adirondacks and in New England, I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts in the 75 to 100 mph range. Maybe even stronger than that atop Mount Washington.

Winds will be somewhat lighter in the Champlain Valley than elsewhere, but gusts over 40 mph are still a good bet later today.

These gusty west winds will bring in colder air, so rain will change to snow in many areas of northern Vermont later this afternoon and evening. By then, the storm will be departing, so there won't be anything heavy.

Best guess is a dusting to two inches above about 800 feet in elevation in the North Country. At this point, I doubt there will be any accumulations on the lowest valley floors, but you never know. In any event, this won't be a big snowfall by any stretch of the imagination.

The strong storm is moving right along, so it will be out of our hair on Sunday. That means we have a shot of at least some sun, and the winds will die down as the day goes on.

There's no rest for the weary, though. Another very strong storm will get going in the middle of the country, then move into the Great Lakes as a huge wind maker. Here in New England, I don't think it will be awful. There will be some rain Tuesday, maybe some heavier showers along the storm's cold front on Wednesday. It will get windy again, too.

This week's storm spells a lot more trouble for the middle of the nation, however.

There's a real risk of another tornado outbreak in the lower Mississippi Valley Monday evening and in the Southeast Tuesday, election day.

Very strong winds will develop by Wednesday in the Great Lakes, sort of a "gales of November" situation popularized by Gordon Lightfoot's famous song "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald."

After that, the overall November weather pattern continues to look stormy across much of the United States.

Here's that video of an SUV accidentally driving through a Florida tornado Friday:

If You Hate Sunshine This Is Your Time Of Year

The sun broke through the clouds ever so briefly just before sunset on
Tuesday, lighting up some lingering fall foliage. It's been very cloudy
lately and that state of affairs will mostly continue. 

The annual cloudy season here in Vermont got off to an early start in October.

The last couple of weeks of last month featured lots of overcast skies and gloom. Now that we're into November, we get to keep the clouds.

This month is usually the cloudiest month of the year, though it's basically in a statistical tie with December. At least normally.

True to form, November started off overcast and I see scant chances for sun in the immediate future.

Sunday does look like it will feature some sun, and maybe Monday morning, too. But clouds are going to predominate.

So will the rain.

It's been raining in much of Vermont since yesterday afternoon. The rain is becoming more showery today. A line of gusty downpours, possibly accompanied by a lightning strike or two, might clip southern Vermont later today.

The atmosphere is pretty dynamic over the Northeast, so a new storm will get going tonight and Saturday in New England.  There is something called a negatively tilted trough setting up over and near the region, and that is a recipe for creating a strong storm system.

A negative trough is a dip in the jet stream that is tilted northwest to southeast. Often when this happens, there's a lot of warm, moist air racing in from the southeast and a rush of cold air can often go over the top of this warmer air. The result is a lot of lift and instability. Storms under this scenario can definitely strengthen fast.

The one on Saturday looks like it will be a fast developer. As the storm passes through New England, it will be getting strong really quickly. That will unleash a period of strong winds Saturday afternoon and evening.

High wind watches are up for all of southern New England, extending up into southern Vermont and New Hampshire and coastal Maine. Winds could reach 60 mph in these locations. In the rest of Vermont, we could easily see wind gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range Saturday and Saturday night in many spots.

Winds will quickly die down by Sunday and we will get that break in the weather I mentioned. But more storminess is on the horizon, as another strong low pressure system gets going in the middle of the country and heads towards the Great Lakes.

There could be some severe weather in parts of the Midwest with this on Election Day next Tuesday, which is something we need to watch. Here in Vermont, this storm means lots of clouds Tuesday through Thursday. Although there might be a few breaks in the overcast, we can also expect a fair bit of rain and wind during this entire period.

Yeah, it's November all right.

Severe Weather Threat To Increase In Vermont, Rest Of New England This Afternoon

Gawd, it was hot and humid outside in Vermont when I stepped out for lunch at noontime.

As previously advertised, that heat and humidity is keeping us on track for another potential bout of severe thunderstorms later today. 

Under lots of sunshine, temperatures will top out at or above 90 in most lower elevations of Vermont this afternoon.

If severe storms develop in the Northeast today,
the most likely areas are shaded in yellow.
Not everyone will get a severe storm, but
a few towns might.

That sun, heat and humidity will make the air less stable, and all we'll need is a trigger to prompt storms to form and possibly to become severe. 

The question is will that trigger materialize. There is a disturbance and weak cold front sinking south from Ontario and Quebec and that might set things off later.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont is not 100 percent sure the storms will get going, but the meteorologists there think they probably will. 

Computer models are not handling predictions of what might go on in the atmosphere over us later today and this evening, and that adds some uncertainty to the forecast.

It might be a bust and we get nothing, or things could get really bad in spots this evening. Best to keep an eye to the sky, just in case.

If storms do form,  they'll develop fast. So be prepared if you see some dark clouds or towering, billowing clouds starting to form later this afternoon.

That's because the way the atmosphere is set up today, some of the thunderstorm that form will likely go from  small shower nothing burgers to dangerous blast of damaging winds, torrential downpours, a lot of lightning and possibly big hail.

A few rogue storms could get going any time from now on today. (I'm writing this at 12:30 p.m.) But the most likely time for storms will start at roughly 4 p.m. and go into the late evening, say 10 p.m. or so.

Northern New York and the northern portions of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine are the most likely targets if any severe storms develop. There's a lesser but still real chance if you go further south.

There's still a threat of some severe storms scattered about Saturday afternoon as well

Another Severe Weather Threat Today Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

A severe thunderstorm looms
over Starksboro, Vermont last month.
More severe weather is a a good
bet in parts of the Green Mountain State
today. 

Another sunny, humid dawn greeted us in Vermont this morning, setting the stage for some more severe thunderstorms today.

Yesterday, we had a bit of a warmup. A few areas in the North Country managed to pick up a thunderstorm. None were severe, but some were strong with gusts to 40 mph and brief, torrential downpours.  

I noticed the National Weather Service at South Burlington, Vermont picked up a quick quarter inch of rain or so with a thunderstorm. Here at my weather hacienda in St. Albans, Vermont, just 25 miles north of Burlington, we got just, like, three raindrops.

Today will be much more active than Wednesday, as I expect most people in Vermont and surrounding areas will get a thunderstorm.

Some storms will be severe.  The area NOAA's Storm Prediction center is targeted today is northeastern Pennsylvania, most of New York, all of Vermont, most of New Hampshire and the western portions of Massachucetts, Connecticut  and Maine.

The biggest threats from any of today's storms are strong, damaging winds and torrential downpours.  Even though it has been dry, the air is so humid that the thunderstorms will take full advantage of the available moisture.

That means it will rain so, so hard in some storms, raising the risk of local flash floods.

Often, an approaching cold front bumping into humid air touches off severe thunderstorms. But the nearest cold front is way west over the Great Lakes.

Today's it's a combination of an upper level disturbance in the atmosphere, lots of humidity, instability encouraged by strong morning sun today and some relatively strong winds aloft that are creating the chances of bad storms.

As with most episodes of severe storms in the Northeast, most people won't get damaging winds or flash floods. It'll just be a random smattering of locations.

Areas in yellow have the best chance of severe
thunderstorms today, but the severe ones
will be hit and miss.  

Most of the time, you can't tell much more than several minutes ahead of time who will get the severe weather, so keep your weather radio handy and take shelter if you get a severe storm warning, or go to high ground if you get a flash flood warning.

Most of the rest of us still have to be careful. There will probably be a lot of lightning around during the storms, which of course you don't want to be outside in the middle of.

So, cancel your hiking trip, your fishing trip and your boating trip today, and probably your picnic,too.

Better weather will be coming.

Although not tomorrow. I expect more thunderstorms scattered around the region Friday, though few, if any will be severe. Friday's storms will be touched off by that cold front I told you about that's over the Great Lakes today. It'll finally get here on Friday.

There might be a lesser coverage of widely scattered storms Saturday, but no big deal.

Sunday at this point looks gorgeous

 

Severe Weather Threat In Vermont, Surrounding Areas Today

A severe thunderstorm looms over St. Albans Bay,
Vermont a couple summers ago. There's a good
chance of similar scenes today.  

1:30 PM UPDATE:

Storms began firing up in northern New York state around noon, right on schedule and as of 1:30 p.m. were expanding and strengthening.

A few were poised to make it into Vermont within the next hour two, all the while getting bigger.

There will probably be only pockets of wind damage from the handful of severe storms that will develop within the oncoming area of occasional thunderstorms.

That's a typical pattern with Northeastern severe outbreaks. A few towns get hit hard, while most just get a regular old noisy thunderstorm.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issued a discussion of the situation at 1:09 EDT, and said they might or might not issue a severe thunderstorm watch for northern New York and western Vermont.

Wind flows are weak enough so that they're trying to decide whether there will be enough in the way of bad storms to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.  Severe storms might end up being widely scattered at best. We'll see.

But these few severe ones can happen anywhere so watch out. Plus, the non-severe ones could still have a lot of lightning and gusty winds, so you'll still want to get inside.

It still looks like some of these storms might repeatedly hit a few areas of the hilly terrain of northeastern New York and most of Vermont, so local flash floods remain a threat throughout the day, despite the dry conditions we've seen this month.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I'd skip the hike or the boating excursion or the golf outing in Vermont today as we have a pretty damn good chance of some strong thunderstorms, which could turn severe in a few spots.

As I write this early Tuesday morning,  the sky is mostly clear over my weather hacienda in northwestern Vermont and the rest of the state.

Don't let that fool you. The sun will actually help create the storms that form today by adding heat and instability to the atmosphere.

A cold front is slowly coming in from the west and is pushing into the warm, humid air over us.

The timing is such that, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, the area with the highest risk of severe storms is all of Vermont, eastern New York, northwestern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.

Strong winds and local flash floods are the biggest hazards from these storms in Vermont and surrounding areas.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington sees a scenario in which storms will fire up in the Adirondacks around noon or a little after that, march into the Champlain Valley by mid afternoon, get into central Vermont during the late afternoon or evening and east of the Green Mountains later in the evening or early tonight.

As you can see, this line or area of storms will move pretty slowly. So it's going to be a pretty active day for a lot of us.

Don't go out on the lakes in Vermont today, or you
might find yourself under a scary sky like this. 

As is always the case with this type of situation, not everybody will get a severe storm. In fact most of us won't. But be on the lookout.

You should have a weather radio today with you, or failing that, pay attention to local media who will relay any warnings as to what to do.

Following are the kinds of weather alerts you might hear today, the relative liklihood of them happening and what to do about them.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Pretty damn likely this afternoon.  That means just keep doing what you were going to do anyway, with the following exceptions:

Keep an eye to the sky and listen for upgrades to warnings from the National Weather Service. (Details on what to do in the warnings are coming up a couple paragraphs down.)

This morning is an excellent time to get stuff that can easily blow around, like lawn furniture, toys, garbage bins etc. indoors so they don't become projectiles if storms really get going this afternoon. You don't want your neighbor to be clonked in the head with your beach umbrella or bouncy house, do you?

Todays Storm Prediction Center forecast map.
Areas in yellow have the strongest chance of
severe storms. Note that Vermont is yellow in this map.  

The likely thunderstorm watch also means, as noted, that you should ditch the plans for any major outdoor excursions today.

You don't want to be caught out in the middle of the lake when lightning strikes are slamming down all around you.

And jeez, Camels Hump has been there for a zillion years and will be for a zillion more. Can't you just wait for a nicer day to go on a hike up there?

I'd say there's a 99.99 percent chance of one or several or many gorgeous hiking days later this summer to take advantage of. Go then.

Besides, even if there are no big thunderstorms, do you really want to hike in this humidity, this wind, with haze and clouds ruining the view from the summits? Didn't think so.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Chances are pretty good but not certain you'll get one of these today here in Vermont

If you get a severe thunderstorm warning, get indoors. In a sturdy building.

It's tempting to look out at the storm through the windows, but that can be risky. Tthe biggest threats from today's storms are strong straight line winds that can cause damage, like blow out windows or send tree branches or other debris through them.

A secondary risk is big hail, but that is not as likely as the wind, but it's still something to consider.

Flash Flood Warning: Not all that likely, but possible in a few spots today and this evening.

I know what you're thinking. "Matt, you spent an entire weather blog post on Sunday whining about a drought in Vermont, and now you're telling me there might be a flood? Geez!"

Well, yes, it's been dry.

But here's the deal. As I said, these thunderstorms are going to be moving fairly slowly, because the cold front they're attached to is moving slowly.

This might mean thunderstorms could do something called training. They could line up like boxcars on a train track. Thunderstorm after thunderstorm would go over the same spot like all those boxcars, and each storm would drop heavy downpours.

The dry weather we've had means you'd probably need 1.5 or two inches of rain in an hour, or three inches of rain or more within three hours to set off a flash flood in Vermont today.

A few spots that get hit by one of these thunderstorm trains could get that amount of rain, which would send water gushing off Vermont's hillsides to form a local flash flood.

Any flash flooding would be limited to just a few spot areas. This isn't going to be a Hurricane Irene, which trashed the entire state with huge floods.

If you do get a flash flood warning and you're in a place that's high and doesn't flood, stay put. I know that's boring but read a damn book or something.

If you're driving and encounter a flooded road, for gawd's sake don't drive through it like so many idiots do. It doesn't take much water to at all to sweep a car away. And how do you know the road under the water is still there? It might have been washed away.

If your house is in a flood prone area, have a plan to get out very, very quickly. They call them flash floods for a reason. They happen in an, um, flash.

The weather in Vermont and surrounding areas will settle down tonight. For most of us, the storms today will be good thing, because we need the rain.

And it's fun to get a good old thunder bumper now and again.

Just stay safe.

Storms, Wind, Snow, Fires: Active Weather Day Across The Nation Today

My St. Albans, Vermont property was winter white
again this morning and buds on the lilac were collecting
snow as winter temporarily returns.  

If you like a lot of activity in your weather, today's a good day for you.

Huge areas of the country are experiencing strong winds, fire dangers, and a little to the north a winter storm.

Severe storms are possible in the South, too. Very few people are going to have what most consider a "nice" early spring day.

For my Vermont readers, there's a Green Mountain State specific summary further down in this post.

THE SET UP:

A strong storm was getting organized over Colorado and Kansas early this morning. It was already snowing hard in parts of Colorado and the wind has been howling since yesterday in New Mexico, parts of Texas and surrounding states.

The storm will consolidate and move fairly slowly toward the northeast, ending up somewhere in southern Quebec or perhaps far northern New England on Friday.

It's a classic spring storm, with a stripe of heavy snow to the north of it, severe weather to the southeast of the storm center and lots of wind swirling around the whole thing.

So yes, it's a classic spring storm, but don't expect a lot of classic sunny, pleasant spring weather in much of the country over the next few days.

WIND AND FIRE

An unbelievably large area of the nation covering much of New Mexico, northwest Texas, the western half of Oklahoma, much of Kansas and southeastern Colorado is under a high wind warning today.

From television station KJRH: Somebody set
a small pile of debris on fire and strong
winds blew embers into this Tulsa house.
The resulting fire destoryed it. 

It was so windy in New Mexico Tuesday that snow plows had to be called out to clear tumbleweeds from at least one highway.

These strong winds south of the storm center, combined with warm temperatures and especially very low humidity, is raising the risk of wildfires.

There were some wildfires already in Oklahoma Tuesday.

Plus a homeowner in Tulsa who either didn't hear or ignored warnings not to do any outdoor burns set a small pile of debris on fire. That fire spread quickly to his house, destroying it, television station KJRH reported.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says there is an extreme risk of rapidly spreading erratic wildfires today from southeastern New Mexico, through much of northern Texas, central Oklahoma and eastern Kansas.

Strong southwesterly winds south of that storm center I talked about are coming right off the super dry southwestern U.S. deserts, so you can imagine why this is a problem.

SNOWSTORM

A blizzard warning is up for much of eastern Colorado today, as winds gusting over 50 mph propel heavy snow into huge drifts. Already, we're getting reports of highway closures in that area.

Winter storm warnings are up for much of Wyoming, too, and in a long stripe from most of Nebraska all the way through Wisconsin and much of Michigan.

Through Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota and northern Iowa, four to 12 inches of snow is forecast, along with strong winds today and tonight.

Wisconsin is in for up to 14 inches of snow by Thursday, and the northern half of Michigan's lower peninsula is up for heavy wet snow, and up to a quarter inch of freezing rain, which could cause problems with falling tree branches and power lines.

Snow and mixed precipitation will spread into northern New York and northern New England Thursday.

TORNADOES AND SEVERE STORMS

As is common with this type of spring storm, severe thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes are a good best southeast of the storm center.

Today and tonight, the threat will extend from northeastern Texas up through western Arkansas, Missouri and western Illinois, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

This won't be the world's biggest and most extensive tornado outbreak, but if you live in this neck of the woods, you oughta keep those weather radios handy so you can hear warnings today.

On Wednesday, the threat of severe storms and a few tornadoes will move into Alabama, and parts of Tennessee and Mississippi.

VERMONT:

Snow dusted the far northern reaches of Vermont, as expected late last night and early this morning.

There was a half inch of new, slushy snow at my  house in St. Albans, in the northwest corner of the state. But just 25 miles or so to the south, in Burlington, it was just light rain.

Daffodil shoots shivering in the snow in
my St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning.  

This is just the opening salvo in what will be a messy few days.  

A cold front was slipping south through northern Vermont early this morning, which is the cause of this light snow and rain.

A batch of cold air is moving south from Quebec, so it will be a lot colder in Vermont today than yesterday.

A few places near the Canadian border will barely make it to the freezing mark. Most of us will hold in the 30s today.

This cold air sets the stage for when that cold front starts working its way back north as a warm front Thursday.

That storm out west that I talked about above will ride along this front, and there will be a lot of moisture working north.

That means the precipitation coming along will be heavier than the light stuff this morning. The chilly air from that cold front will mean the precipitation will start as snow late tonight, and transition to sleet and freezing rain during Thursday.

Eventually, by later Thursday or Thursday night, the ice will turn to a cold but non-freezing rain.

The changeover to plain rain will take longest east of the Green Mountains, and especially in the Northeast Kingdom. Those areas have the greatest risk of having to deal with icy roads and some accumulations of snow, sleet and ice.

I'd say up to three inches of the gloppy mix could pile up in the Northeast Kingdom.

Temperatures will warm up Friday as the storm passes by, especially in the southern half of Vermont, where temperatures could get up into the 50s.

Some areas of northern Vermont could get up to an inch of rain (and melted snow and ice) I imagine rivers will rise because of this, but it doesn't look like there will be much if any flooding.

We'll have a quiet and fairly mild Easter weekend (highs mostly in the upper 40s or low 50s) and then more storminess is due by early next week, as it looks now.

It's too soon to say what kind of storm or how big it will be, but at this point it looks like it'll be mostly rain.