That Light At The End Of The Tunnel Is Warmth

Remarkably, the snow that fell Monday along Route 17 in Buels
Gore, Vermont did not melt Tuesday, despite strong May sun
It was that cold! This snow will certainly begin to melt today,
and really go on Thursday. 

Once again, in May, for the fifth day in a row, it snowed Tuesday in Vermont.

It didn't add up to much, and only a few places got it, but it DID snow again.  

I also find it remarkable that I could see snow on the ground all day pretty much to near the base of the Green Mountains, despite a fair amount of sunshine. Yesterday, was certainly another chilly day!

However, I'm happy to report that, except perhaps on the highest peaks, it won't snow again anywhere in Vermont until autumn.  

The long awaited warming trend will begin a bit today, then go full speed ahead Thursday.  The next few days starting tomorrow will really only be around normal for May, with highs mostly in the 60s and lows in the 40s, but it will still feel dreamy.

It's frosty and freezy this morning just about everywhere in Vermont, as forecast. We're still not out of the woods with those freezes and frosts. Tonight will be problematic in that regard. But we're almost there.

Today will certainly feel better than it has lately.  After the morning frost melts, temperatures will shoot up into the 50s.  That's still cool for mid-May, but plentiful sunshine and winds that will be somewhat lighter than they've been recently will make it feel warmer than it actually will be.

Those light winds and clear skies, along with very dry air, means that temperatures will plummet again tonight. A few areas will be a bit warmer than last night. A few others that had steady winds all night last night will actually be colder tomorrow morning.

But that will be it. Buh-bye, cold wave.  In Vermont's banana belts, like the Champlain Valley, it looks like tonight's risk of frost will be the last until autumn. In the Northeast Kingdom, it can frost any time of year, so I will make no such promises for that neck of the woods.

During this transition into a warmer weather pattern, we have a decent shot of some rainy spells, which is good news in northwestern Vermont in particular, which needs the rain.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the timing and strength of these showers, but they are likely, - or at least possible  - omorrow night, Friday, maybe Sunday, then Sunday night into Monday.

Chance are also increasing that a solid period of summer-like weather could hit starting the middle of next week. It's certainly possible that temperatures could reach the 80s by the end of next week.  If everything survived this morning's frost, and survives tonight, there's going to be a mad dash on trees to fully leaf out over the next week or two

INTERESTING TIDBITS

When weather patterns get interesting, that often spells trouble for us in Vermont.  This soon to be ending cold wave is one example.

Over the next several days, several interesting developments are likely to appear on the weather maps, but they will have zero, or next to zero influence on Vermont's weather.

The first interesting bit is occuring well off the Florida east coast.  An early season subtropical storm is likely to form north of the Bahamas over the next several days. Hurricane and tropical storm season starts June 1, but as has happened frequently in recent years, tropical systems have been forming before this arbitrary start to the season.

If this subtropical storm forms, they'll name it Arthur.

Wannabe Arthur won't hit the East Coast, but some signs indicate it will merge with a non-tropical storm well off the coast of New England and become a powerhouse.  That could bring an easterly fetch of chilly air to the New England coast, but that chilly air is unlikely to come as far inland as Vermont.

Worse, this pattern could bring some coastal flooding, rip currents and beach erosion to parts of the U.S East Coast.

Out in the middle of the country, after a quiet first part of May, severe weather and tornadoes seem destined to ramp up again. April was a particularly busy and deadly month for tornadoes, so the past couple of weeks has been a nice break in that department.

The threat of severe storms over the next several days doesn't appear as if it will be as intense as some of those April outbreaks, but it's still something to watch.

Finally, there's another oddly intense pool of cold air that will be building near Hudson Bay and the extreme northern tip of Quebec.  Like the last batch of frigid air, it will be rather strong for this time of year.

Very much unlike the last cold wave, there is zero chance it will come blasting down on us. Instead strong westerly winds aloft will keep that cold air a good 1,000 miles away from us, well off to our north.

But if you still haven't had enough of winter, head to Hudson Bay or the very northern tip of Quebec. Hmmm. I'm not seeing much of an exodus in that direction, am I?

The Mayuary Snow And Cold Just Keeps Coming in Vermont

Web cam image from the Vermont Agency of Transporation
shows a wintry, hazardous high elevation Route 17 in
Buels Gore, Vermont around 6 p.m. Monday. 

Boy, we really added insult to injury in parts of Vermont on Monday!

We knew were in the midst of a remarkable May cold wave.

We also knew a quick moving storm would drop a little snow on some of the high elevations yesterday, but the snow overperformed once again.

North central Vermont seemed to be in the sweet spot for snow, far enough north to get into the best cold air for snow but not so far north to escape the moisture from the storm, which was crossing southern and central New England yesterday and last evening.

The result was a surprise snowfall, even at pretty low elevations.  Parts of eastern Chittenden County seemed to be one bullseye, with one to three inches of snow reported at elevations of about 600 or 700 feet. Pretty low. So this wasn't just a high elevation snow.

The snow fell so heavily at times that roads gots slush covered and slick. That's an incredible rarity for a mid-May snowstorm that hit during the day and early evening. Pavement temperatures, and weak warmth from the sun getting through the clouds would normally largely prevent that.

Some snow reports from yesterday in Vermont include 4.4 inches in Hyde Park; 3.2 inches in Greensboro, 2.6 inches in Underhill, two inches at an elevation of just 600 feet in Huntington and 1.5 inches in Hinesburg.

Looks like this Vermont landscape photo was taken in January, but it
was taken by a Vermont back country skier in northern Vernont
this morning. Photo credit to @NewEnglandTommy on Twitter. 

Mountain peaks are buried in snow along the spine of the Green Mountains. By yesterday, the stake near the summit of Mount Mansfield measured a snow depth of 58 inches, and it kept snowing after that measurement was taken. Normally the snow depth there should have dwindled to 30 inches or so. 

Back country skiers are reporting excellent conditions way up there, at elevations above 3,000 feet.

I guess if we can take any solace from this precipitation, northwestern Vermont has been dry and needed the moisture.  Forecasts called for less than a tenth of an inch of rain in the central and northern Champlain Valley.

Instead, in  Burlington, where it didn't snow, there was 0.64 inches of rain.  It also didn't snow on my parched, chilly gardens up in St. Albans, but I did receive a solid half inch of rain. So there's one glimmer if good news.

In a way, the worst is yet to come, unfortunately. The problem going forward for the next day or two will not be snow, but frost and freezes.

There will be a some scattered rain, and yes, light snow showers around this afternoon and evening, but unlike yesterday, they won't really amount to anything.  Today will be a chilly and blustery day for May, with highs only in the 40s, despite a fair amount of sun.

Tonight's a real trouble maker. There will be a harsh freeze in most places.  Continued overnight winds might prevent a lot of frost from forming, but that doesn't matter.

Almost all of us, though, will be in the 20s overnight. Temperatures will drop around Vermont to close to record lows. For instance, the record low tomorrow in Burlington is 30 degrees, and the forecast low is also 30 degrees.

With a little wind, that's enough to possibly freezer burn a lot of the tender new leaves on trees that are leafing out.  I hope that doesn't happen, because brown leaves going forward for the rest of the spring would be terribly depressing.

Early apple crops could also be damaged with this.

By tomorrow afternoon, you might be led to believe this cold awfulness is over.  Temperatures will rise well into the 50s, which is still cool for mid-May but a definite improvement. It'll be the warmest afternoon since last Thursday.

But the air will be dry and that cold high pressure system will create clear skies and light winds Wednesday night and during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. That's perfect for radiational cooling. Expect temperatures to go back down into the 20s most areas. There will also be a heavier frost by Thursday morning, which is definitely damaging to leaves, crops and gardens.

After the frost melts Thursday morning, we can finally, definitely say good riddance to this Mayaury weather. A pattern change will take hold, and the chances of frost for the next ten days at least evaporate to zero.

A west to east flow will mostly block Canadian cold fronts for the next couple weeks at least. Cold fronts will occasionally come through during that period, but they won't bring any particularly chilly air with them.

We also have a couple decent shots at rain late Thursday night and Friday, and again Sunday or Monday.  It will definitely be too warm for snow during those two little storms.  (It might be warm enough for a little thunder, but that's OK.)

There are even some computer models that suggest that in a little more than a week, we could get into some summertime weather with highs in the 80s. I'm NOT promising that because the prospect of such warmth is iffy at best.

At least that's a sign that prospects for another cold blast later this month seem to be off the table.

"Mayuary" To End Midweek. Back To Spring Afterwards

Vermont AOT traffic cam shows a midwinter scene in mid-May this
morning along Route 9 in high elevation Woodford, Vermont.

Snow stayed on the ground all day for a second day at many elevations in Vermont above 1,000 feet Sunday as the May cold spell hung on.

My sister who lives in high elevation Shrewsbury said they got eight inches of snow by Saturday and only some of it had melted by Sunday evening.

At least things were better Sunday than they were Saturday. After some morning flurries, temperatures did rise into the 40s to around 50, which I guess was an improvement.

More wintry stuff is on way for the next couple of days, but the signals for hope at the end of the week keep getting stronger and stronger.  

First we'll have to get through the next two or three days.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is on its way, but it still doesn't look as bad as Saturday's frigid weather. But it will be bad enough.

The introduction to this new blast of air is a storm system coming across from the Plains and through the Great Lakes. This little system already has a history of dropping snow from Chicago to Toronto.  I guess we can take comfort in that it's not just us dealing with wintry weather in May.

Showers will break out today with that quick little storm scooting across central and southern New England. Far northern Vermont, especially the northwest, won't get much, if anything. Central and southern Vermont are in for afternoon rain, some thunderstorms, then, as the colder air works in, more snow in the mountains this evening and tonight.

The storm is small, but rambunctious enough to maybe produce some strong thunderstorms in southern New England today ahead of the colder air.

Here in Vermont,  looks like snow accumulations will be lighter and less widespread this time than Saturday.  Expect some places in the higher elevations to get a dusting to an inch, with a few spot two inch reports possible.

We'll have to watch for more freezes over the next few nights.

Tonight is tricky, with the best chances of a damaging freeze or frost being the further west you go.  That's because clearing will take place later tonight from west to east across the region.  The more nighttime hours that stay clear, the lower the temperature will go.

Breezes overnight will keep temperatures from bottoming even lower.

Tuesday will be another cold, blustery day.  Highs will only reach the 40s, which is close to 20 degrees below normal - way cold for May.  Gusty northwest winds will make it seem even colder.

Frost and freezes appear inevitable Tuesday night for most of us.  I'm just hoping places that are starting to leaf out and bloom stay above 28 degrees. That's the threshold for apple orchard damage if trees are blooming. Also, newly leafed out trees risk ugly freezer burn if it gets much colder than that.

The welcome warming trend starts Wedneday.  Under sunny skies, temperatures should get into the 50s. That's still on the cool side for May, but an improvement.

After another chilly, possibly frosty Thursday morning, it's all over. A new weather regime by then will take hold, one that's pretty much west to east across the nation, prett much coast to coast.

That means mostly near normal or even occasionally above normal temperatures starting Thursday afternoon and continuing quite possibly through the month.  It's safe to say, at least I hope, that after the next day or two, we're done with snow until next autumn.

There probably will be a few brief cool spells thrown in, with minor intrusions of chill or back door cold fronts during the rest of the month. These, however, will be absolutely nothing dramatic and won't interfere with your outdoor gardening plans so much. Assuming there's anything left of your garden after this week.

Overall, the warmth will win.

The new weather pattern might mean it will be somewhat wetter, too, which is actually a good thing in dry northwestern Vermont. (Southern Vermont seems to have had adequate precipitation lately).

The west to east pattern means little storms will swing by every couple or three days. If any of these can capture some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, we can get some decent rains out of some of them.

Maybe it'll be May flowers that bring June flowers and everything is just a little backed up?

Cold Snap To Be A Geeky Experiment, Anyway

Look closely and you can see the snowflakes coming down on my
St. Albans, Vermont gardens this morning. These poor flowers are
in for more snow and freezes over the next couple of days. 

While the cold and snow hitting the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend is undoubtedly a huge bummer, I guess you can look at a rather dim bright side.

It's an experiment in a way for weather and garden geeks.

On Thursday evening, you could literally see the middle and upper atmosphere cooling over Vermont, if you knew what to look for. The sun had heated the surface to a temperature of near 60 degrees, just a tad cool for this time of year.

As the upper atmosphere cooled, some billowing clouds appeared. Warm air rises, especially if the air above is really cold. That forms those billowing clouds.

The air was quite dry last evening, , so it was difficult to form showers. But eventually, some rain came from one good sized cloud over St. Albans, Vermont where I live.

The air was dry enough so that the rain evaporated on the way down, so there was no precipitation where I stood.  But that evaporated rain cooled the air and helped bring the increasingly chilly air to the surface. Suddenly west winds from this "storm" gusted to about 30 mph and the air suddenly got dramatically chillier.

Web cam from this morning shows some snow on the ground
in high elevation Buels Gore, Vermont, along Route 17.

The cold spell was on, and it would only intensify overnight, and really get going tonight and Saturday, as forecasts have consistently indicated.

It briefly snowed this morning at my place, and I've seen photos of a dusting to a little over an inch of new snow in some high spots in Vermont this morning.

Another interesting thing to watch among weather geeks is what happens when a storm tonight gets going near New York City and intensifies as it moves along the southern New England coast and into the Gulf of Maine.

How much snow will the storm throw to its north and west?   It's hard to accumulate snow in May, but since much of the precipitation will be at night, there's no sunlight coming through the clouds to warm things up just a little.

Forecasts for snow in the central New England highlands, like the Berkshires, Monadnocks of New Hampshire, the far southern Green Mountains and the Catskills of New York have been cut back a little. Most of those areas are expected to get two inches or less of snow.

That wouldn't make it a historic May snow, but still impressive. Also, there's still room for surprises. That is, if the snow comes down harder than expected. We'll see.

Here in Vermont, from the Green Mountains eastward, a lot of places could get two or three inches of snow, especially in elevations of 1,000 feet or more. It's impressive that the National Weather Service is still calling for light accumulations of less than an inch all the way down to the floor of the Champlain Valley.

The huge expanse of dark blue in the middle of the nation on the
National Weather Service map this morning are freeze warnings.
That's an immense area to be under risk. Lighter blues are
mostly frost advisories. Note the winter weather advisory
in northern Maine. 

Another geeky thing to watch is how the snow showers play out Saturday afternoon and early evening. The atmosphere several thousand feet up will be at record cold levels for May.  The sun this time of year is strong, so that's a recipe for some real atmospheric instability.

Will that yield some gusty rain and snow showers, maybe even briefly heavy?

Don't be surprised to find a few heavy snow squalls, with new, brief snow accumulations. If you get a snow squall, you'll get a dusting to an inch of snow, which will likely quickly melt after the squall passes.

With these snow squalls, temperatures could get interesting.  "High" temperatures Saturday will be within a few degrees of 40, but snow squalls will briefly bring frigid air to the surface.  You could momentarily see temperatures drop to near 32 degrees in snow squalls, even in the valleys.

Whether and how many snow squalls form depends at least partly on the amount of cloud cover and the amount of sun that can sneak between the clouds.  In any event it's going to be a windy, raw day, much like you'd expect in early March.

For people who are into stats and climatology, it will be fun to see how many record lows are broken. A few cities in the Great Lakes and Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast, might experience all time record lows for May.

During the day Saturday, some record low high temperatures are in jeopardy, too, all the way from Maine to Texas.

Finally, there's the plant life out there. Not just here but in an immense area affected by the cold snap from South Dakota to Georgia to New York and New England. All these areas are under freeze warnings, or at least frost advisories.

Unfortunately, this cold snap has the potential for being a multi-million dollar disaster for orchardists and farmers in a huge area of the nation, especially east of the Mississippi and from the Carolinas north.

Here in Vermont, it will remain much colder than  normal through Thursday morning.  From Sunday onward, it won't be as cold as Saturday will be, but still far chillier than average for May.

And there's the freeze issues.  I had a bit of ice on the ground at my house earlier this morning in St. Albans, Vermont, followed by a snow shower.  There's a good chance or likelihood of frosts and freezes nightly through this coming Thursday morning. Here in St. Albans and elsewhere in Vermont, we could end up with seven consecutive mornings with readings of 32 or lower. In May!

At least it still looks like this won't last forever. Forecasts still call for a pattern change which would bring milder air in.  Definitely no promises on this one, but I did see one computer model with something interesting: Tomorrow, highs will be near 40 in Vermont. This forecast model calls for highs near 80 degrees exactly one week later.

I'm not buying that model, but it will be much better outside a week from now. I promise.

Very Strange Wintry Blast Still On Its Way

That purple bullseye over the Northeast is that chunk of
the polar vortex that broke off. .It will bring an exceedingly
cold Mother's Day weekend to us. 

The long anticipated, strange wintry blast still hasn't officially hit the Northeast and Great Lakes yet, but we here in Vermont and the rest of the North Country have already gotten a foretaste of it.

A dusting of snow on the ground greeted some people in the Northeast Kingdom when they awoke Tuesday morning.

It stayed chilly all day, too, especially up in the Kingdom. I noticed Lyndonville was only 39 degrees at 3 p.m. Tuesday.  It was down to 19 degrees (brrr!) in Saranac Lake, New York this morning.  

It will warm up, kinda, sorta, today and Thursday, but temperatures will still be below normal. Daytime highs both days will be in the 50s, with maybe a spot 60 degree reading here and there. That's still a few degrees on the chilly side for this time of year.

But that weird, big cold snap is lurking on our doorstep. By Saturday, it will seem like early March, not early May out there.

In the winter, the now infamous polar vortex spins up in the Arctic. Pieces of it occasionally break off, plunge southward and cause intense, subzero cold waves.  That didn't really happen in our neck of the woods this past winter.

By May, the polar vortex up there in the Arctic is very much weakened by the strong spring sun.  If a piece of it manages to break off, that cold chunk usually gets swiftly shunted eastward across Canada and out into the Atlantic.

Here in northern New England, when that happens, we get a bit of a cool snap and maybe a little frost in some spots.

This time, this will be a classic winter polar vortex thing.  A sizeable chunk of it has broken off and is plunging southward through eastern Canada and will crash into the Great Lakes and New England, just like the worst ones do in, say, January.

I'm not sure anyone has ever seen anything like this in May.  It could have happened in the past, but it's incredibly rare.

The upshot is a real return to winter on Mother's Day weekend.  Of course, temperatures won't go below zero like in a winter during a brush with a chunk of the polar vortex.  But it will be incredibly, weirdly cold for May.  With some snow to add to the misery.

You'll really start to notice in Friday as temperatures stay in the 40s and a few rain and snow showers filter down.

Saturday is when it really hits.  That chunk of frigid air will spin up a storm off the East Coast.  Luckily, it will be far enough offshore, as it looks now, to mostly avoid giving us a lot of precipitation. That's a good thing in this case, because the air would be cold enough to support a big late season snowstorm.  Kind of like a frigid January nor'easter.

Some forecast models bring the storm closer, but for now, we'll say it's a miss.

So, we will probably avoid a full-fledged snowstorm, but we'll still get snow. The storm will blow up into a powerful one as it heads toward the Canadian Maritimes.  That means a lot of wind for us in the form of cold, northwest gusts exceeding 30 mph at times. Moisture will wrap around that storm and come down over New England.

That moisture will spit out frequent snow and rain showers here in Vermont later Friday night, Saturday and into Saturday night.  Really, it will be mostly snow showers, believe it or not, except maybe in the warmest valleys.

Warm is a relative term for this weekend, that's for sure.  On Saturday, when normal high temperatures this time of year are in the low 60s, it will barely get above freezing up in the Northeast Kingdom.  In the Champlain Valley banana belt, it would actually get above 40 degrees for a brief time Saturday afternoon.

That's pretty incredible and rare for this time of year.  Since precipitation will be light, snowfall accumulations also won't amount to much. Still, I can't believe I just wrote that sentence with a straight face in May.

Higher and middle elevations could get an inch or two out of this, and there might even be a little coating in the valleys.

Wind and clouds will keep temperatures from really crashing Friday and Saturday nights.  It will get down to between 30 and 35 degrees both nights, which is not really cold enough to kill all the ew leaves on the trees.

We will have to watch for the risk of plant killing cold nights early next week.  Temperatures will "warm" into the 40s Sunday afternoon, which is still 20 degrees colder than normal. Highs will only be in the upper 40s Monday and Tuesday. If skies clear and winds die down on any nights Sunday through Wednesday we could get leaf-shriveling lows in the upper teens and 20s,

That remains to be seen.  We'll have to wait for updated forecasts.

The cold spell isn't just affecting us, obviously. Damaging frosts are a risk with this thing as far south as Tennessee and the Carolinas.

If you want a glimmer of hope through this cold spell, it does look like temperatures will start to climb to near normal levels toward the end of next week.

Another Big Interruption To Spring For Us Suffering Vermonters (And Many Others)

The sky looked summery and the trees were greening up in the warm
sunshine in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday, but spring is about
to go into another chilly stall. 

It seemed like spring really, finally hit its stride the past few days in Vermont.

Sunshine and warmth over the weekend had the trees racing to green up. Flowers bloomed, lawns got their first mowing and people ventured out in shorts and t-shirts.

It made it all the way up to 76 degrees in Burlington on Sunday, making it the warmest day since last September 23.

There was even lightning visible to the north last night, a sign that summer would like to approach. And yet......    

Vermont weather always finds a way to disappoint, and the upcoming trends do look kind of bleak. Let's just say I hope you didn't get too overenthusiastic getting your garden plants in.

As has happened frequently since mid-April, the forces of winter want to make another push.  Hopefully, this will be winter's last stand.

It'll certainly be cooler this week, startind today.  This week's temperatures will be five to 10 degrees below average, which means highs in the 50s for the most part and lows in the 30s, with risks of frosts on a couple nights between now and Thursday.

Then it manages to get worse, as forecasts now indicate. An odd mass of Arctic air will plunge south, putting the northeastern third of the United States at least into some really cold temperatures.

We can blame something call cross-polar flow. The weather pattern is orienting itself so that a batch of cold air from northern Siberia is going and over the North Pole, then southward across eastern Canada into the United States.

Spring blooms enjoy some warm evening sunshine Sundau im
St. Albans, Vermont.  These same flowers will be shivering
in the cold over the next 10 days or so. 

This type of thing happens occasionally in the winter, giving us some of our deepest cold spells. But cross-polar flow is almost unheard of for May, so this is something.

On forecast maps, this looks like a giant blue and purple bowling ball of cold air hitting a strike on the Northeast.

As dire as that sounds, this probably won't be the worst May cold snap on record. But it will be uncomfortably chilly.

If you're a gardeners, you'll want to be on frost alert for the next ten days or so. Not every night will bring a freeze, but pay attention to forecasts daily, and protect those early plants.

It wont be just us that's affected.

With spring well under way, there's a widespread risk of damaging frost and freezes across the Great Lakes states and across the Northeast and all the way down into the South. I anticipate a lot of crop and fruit orchard damage in these areas by this time next week.

Since the worst of this is a good five days away, teasing out precisely how this will play out. We know it's going to be awfully cold for this time of year. But how cold? And will it snow?

Here in Vermont, we might have quite a few clouds, some wind and showers of rain and snow through most of this upcoming cold wave.  In a way, that would be good. If we get a night during the cold snap that's clear and calm, temperatures would really bottom out and the freeze would be all the more damaging.

That might happen during this, but the trends in the forecast so far favor clouds and wind.

There's the risk of late season snows, too, but at this point, it's not looking like much. (But that could change if a coastal storm really gets going. That's possible early next week, but no likely.

This will be a long lasting cold wave, too.  It won't start to warm up until the middle or end of next week.

Another concern I have is how dry it is out there, especially in the Champlain Valley. Drier conditions make it easier for temperatures to really bottom out at night.  Wet ground adds humidity to the air, and that helps keep temperatures up a little bit.

You don't want to put hoses, sprinklers and irrigation out yet, either. Freezing temperatures could damage all that. So watering gardens is difficult for the time being.

Even without the cold in the forecast, we could use some rain.  Deep soil moisture is still OK, but the surface is dusty as hell. No soaking rains are in the forecast for the next week or so.  Just scattered light rain and snow showers that won't amount to much.

As much as we all like spring sunshine, it would be nice if we got into a wetter and warmer pattern during the second half of this month. We have no way of knowing whether it will do that just yet, so for now, ugh, bundle up.

Frost/Freeze To End Growing Season In Most Of Vermont

It was the chilliest early morning since last spring today when I took the dogs out to their business here in  St. Albans.

Just before dawn, drizzle was propelled by winds gusting over 25 mph and the temperature was only in the mid-40s. Raw!

That sets the stage for tonight. It'll clear up during the day today, and winds will die down tonight. Those are perfect conditions for a fall frost and freeze. It also won't get that warm today, so temperatures won't have to drop much tonight to get into the danger zone.

Most of Vermont is under a freeze warning, except for the Champlain Valley, which is under a frost advisory.

Some sections of Vermont have already had frost and freezes, but tonight's will be the most widespread of the season.  It's the end of the garden for most of us, I'm afraid.

This is actually coming right about on schedule.

For instance, in Rutland and Montpelier, the average first freeze of the season is on September 30.  In Burlington, the average first freeze is October 7.  So we're right in the ballpark this year.

In the Champlain Valley, including Burlington, it might not even get below freezing tonight.  But it doesn't have to get down to 32 degrees to have frost. Temperatures are typically measured at about five feet off the ground.

On clear, calm nights, like what is in the forecast tonight, it can be 35 degrees at eye level, but 32 degrees right on the ground. (cold air sinks, right?)  That's why the Champlain Valley is under a frost advisory, and not a freeze warning in other parts of Vermont.  Away from the lake, temperatures are indeed forecast to go below 32 degrees tonight.

Two corners of Vermont are not under any advisories tonight. Grand Isle, with its proximity to relatively warm Lake Champlain waters, will stay relatively warm and should mostly avoid a frost.

Essex County, way up there in the Northeast Kingdom, is also not under any freeze alerts. That's because that area has already had a killing freeze, so it's pretty much pointless to issue another freeze warning up there.

It'll be a crisp, nice fall day Saturday, but it will cloud up Sunday in advance of the next rainstorm.

No Deaths, But Another Disaster Might Now Be Hitting The South

Peach blossoms like this might be damaged or destroyed in a
widespread hard freeze going on in the South this week. A large
percentage of this year's crop might be ruined. 

It's kind of hard to tell right away, but another big disaster might be hitting the South, the second one this week.

As we know, tragic tornadoes killed 23 people and caused widespread property damage Sunday, especially in Alabama and Georgia.  

This new disaster now unfolding very likely won't kill or physically injure anybody. No additional houses will suffer structural damage. But this latest weather event could prove pretty expensive.

Freeze warnings stretch this morning in a broad band from Texas to South Carolina. It was below freezing, with some areas of reporting record chill this morning. More hard freezes are forecast tonight and in some places, tomorrow night.

It's especially harsh in areas hit by the tornadoes. In Lee County, Alabama, the epicenter of the tornado disaster, some sleet was reported overnight, and temperatures were in the mid-20s this morning.

Across much of the South, especially east of the Mississippi River, it was a near-record warm February. That prompted a lot of crops, including big fruit tree farms to start budding and blooming much earlier than normal.

Then this blast of Arctic air hit. If this sounds familiar, it's because it is. Similar expensive freezes after record early season warmth  hit parts of the middle, southern and eastern parts of the nation in 2017 and 2018.

In the Texas hill country, a big area around Austin, peach trees were blooming. If the temperature falls to 28 or lower for a fairly extended period of time, you lose the entire peach crop once the flowers are blooming. That's the scenario Texas peach farmers are now facing. 

Early this morning, it was 26 degrees in Austin, Texas and 29 in San Antonio. Remember: It's usually a bit warmer in the cities than in rural areas, where the peach trees are.

In North Carolina, early varieties of peach trees are blooming, so those could be wiped out. On the bright side, later varieties of peach and apples aren't far enough along yet in North Carolina to suffer much harm. The cold will also slow down growth in those trees, so subsequent freezes later this month might not cause as much damage.

The situation is a little more dire in further south in South Carolina and Georgia, where peaches and other fruits have progressed along more than up in North Carolina.  Peach blooms are about two weeks ahead of schedule in South Carolina.

The freeze is in progress, so it won't be clear how much damage there is until days after the freeze ends, at least.

This isn't the type of weather disaster or event that garners headlines, like dramatic storms do, but worst case scenarios can cause many tens of millions in damages for farmers. Crop insurance helps, but it's not a cure all.

For the few of you who might be worried about how this will affect the famed cherry blossom spectacle in Washington DC, the short answer is, it won't. It is cold in Washington this week, with forecast temperatures to get as low as 20 degrees tonight and tomorrow night.

But the cherry buds are not nearly far enough along to suffer damage from the cold blast. Peak bloom in Washington is usually in late March or very early in April.

Rainy, Ugly Mess In Vermont, Northeast Today Will Turn To Frozen Ugly Mess Tonight

The trouble with these mid-winter rainstorms is it makes the
snow slide off the roof of our St. Albans, Vermont house, leaving
a nice, big pile of very heavy snow to get rid of by the front door. 

In case you haven't noticed, it's raining out there in Vermont today, and that's making things pretty miserable.

There's more misery ahead after today, too, in the form of a sharp freeze, some light snowfalls, and or more importantly, some harsh Arctic outbreaks.

We'll get to those in a moment, but first, today's water.  

FLOODED STREETS

In addition to the slippery ice underfoot, the rain and some melting snow is being trapped on roads in the form of huge puddles and street flooding across Vermont.  Snowbanks from last weekend's storm means the water has nowhere to go, so it sits on the roads.

This includes major highways, like Interstate 89. If you're speeding along and hit a big puddle or water ponding on the road, that's a recipe for a crash. So be careful.

The problem is even worse in urban areas. Be alert when you see a flooded road or street ahead of you. There's no telling how deep the water is. It's better just to turn around and try another way when you encounter flooding.

The rain and the melting snow are creating areas of dense fog, too. Which means you might not be able to see those deep puddles on the highways until you're right on top of them. It's probably a good idea to slow down out there.

This state of affairs should last most of the day.

The rain will be heavier in southern New England than in Vermont, so there's a greater chance of high water there. Flash flood watches are up for a wide area of southern New England, the New York metro area and parts of New Jersey.

By the way, this rain has some implications for the prospect of spring flooding in Vermont. You will have noticed that the snow is much, much less deep than it was yesterday. The rain has settled the snow quite a lotl

With the rain falling on compacted snow and cold ground, our
St. Albans, Vermont driveway is now a skating rink. 

But not much of it is actually melting. The rain is soaking into the snow, so that by the time we're done with this rain later today, the amount of water in the snow will have increased by quite a bit, as we're expecting at least a half inch of rain today. Most of that will become part of the snow pack.

This by no means whatsoever guarantees we will have or have worse than usual spring flooding. It just ups the chances of it a little.

What actually happens this spring depends on what the weather is like in February, March and at least the first part of April. If we keep getting snowfalls with not much thawing in February and early March, then an abrupt turn to warm, wet weather, that's a big problem.  Flooding would be likely.

If we don't get much snow for the rest of the winter, and/or the spring melting season is gradual, then there's not much to worry about.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington releases a hydrological outlook every other week during the winter and early spring predicting how much of a flood threat there is. The next outlook is due out today, but it was not available yet as of this writing.

By the way, I suspect the National Weather Service is having a harder time than usual getting measurements as to how much water is locked up in Vermont's snow pack. The government shutdown is probably interfering with data collection, making hydrologists' and meteorologists' jobs more difficult.

The last Vermont/New York hydrological outlook, issued January 10, said the threat of flooding was somewhat below normal, but that was before a series of snow and rain storms that hit the region over the past two weeks.

After today, no major thaws are likely for the next couple of weeks at least. We'll get more snow, as several systems seem poised to come through, but at this point, there's no indication of any enormous snowstorms.

TONIGHT'S FREEZE

The anticipated cold front today has been postponed a bit until later today, but it will go below freezing this evening amid some light snow. That water on the ground will freeze up, so it will be treacherous underfoot going forward over the next days and weeks.

With freezing conditions and some snow, road conditions probably won't be great this evening.

ARCTIC OUTBREAKS

The weather pattern over the next week or two will feature quick hitting outbreaks of Arctic cold with  brief periods of seasonably mild weather in between. It will be quite changeable around here.

Saturday looks bitter, with highs near 10 degrees, followed by a relatively mild Sunday, then a very cold Monday, followed by a milder Tuesday and on it goes.

Relatively weak weather systems will be swinging through during this time as well. Each of those will throw handfuls of winter snow down on us, but none of these little storms look like they will dump big amounts of snow on us.

There's already a lot of hype on weather geek social media about one of these Arctic outbreaks, set to come into the United States in about a week. This one at this point looks like it will be particularly harsh. 

What's good for us in Vermont is this Arctic outbreak will come across the Canadian border in the northern Plains and western Great Lakes, so they will get the worst sting from this. Temperatures across the Midwest could easily be the coldest in two or three years.

Despite the hype, this won't be the Worst Cold Wave Ever.  Some daily record lows will be set, but few reasonable forecasters are expecting historic cold. Dangerous, yes, but not the ultimate freeze out.

Early indications are by the time this cold wave hits Vermont, it will be worse than the one that hit a few days ago, but not as bad as the most intense cold waves we've ever had. We'll tease out the particulars of this bitter blast once it gets closer to the time when it is expected to hit.

Plus, this will be another Arctic shot that will last just a few days before temperatures moderate. There will be other Arctic blasts after that. But by then, we will be heading into February.

The worst Arctic cold waves tend to have a little less bite starting around the third week of February. So this won't last forever.

A Warm Vermont Weather Record In The Middle Of A Cold Snap

Thin sheets of ice from Wednesday's snow began sliding off my roof in
St. Albans, Vermont then froze in place Thursday afternoon as
temperatures dipped below freezing. Pretty odd for an
afternoon in October. 

No doubt we in Vermont know it's been cold lately. A couple weeks after we endured or enjoyed humid, record warmth in the 80s, it's been generally cold, drizzly and at times snowy.

But yesterday, on what was the coldest day of this chilly period so far, Burlington, Vermont set yet another warm record. The city somehow made it through the day without getting below freezing.

The temperature dipped to 32 degrees in Burlington early this morning, making it the latest first freeze of the autumn on record. Or at least the latest since 1941, when weather record keeping moved away from warmish Lake Champlain to the Burlington International Airport.

The relative warmth also tied the record for the most number of days between the last spring freeze and the first autumn freeze. That's 184 days, tying the record set just last year.

Most of Vermont, most of New England for that matter, has had freezes already. Burlington hung in there above freezing in recent days due to both its proximity to Lake Champlain and an overabundance of cloudy nights. Cloudy nights tend to be warmer than clear ones.

I had to laugh a bit as Burlington set that "warm" record. The "high" temperature at my house in St Albans barely rose above freezing and only briefly. Much of the afternoon was a bit below freezing. Some snow that fell Wednesday lingered on the ground and on my roof all day.

I was surprised by a thin crust on the top of the soil in my raised beds late yesterday afternoon. Yes, the top layer of that soil froze yesterday afternoon here in St. Albans. I don't remember if I've ever seen frozen ground like that in October, especially in the afternoon.

Today will be a bit better, with some sun boosting temperatures to the upper 30s to low 40s. That's still really chilly for this time of year, but an improvement over yesterday.

Then, on Saturday, we'll still have to contend with that nor'easter coming up the coast. Near the onset of the precipitation Saturday morning, it will probably snow in many locations, even in the valleys.

 It will change to rain pretty much everywhere during the afternoon, but there will probably be a period of slippery roads for a time Saturday as it snows fairly hard, and accumulates on roadways, especially in higher elevations.

There's little if any chance of truly sunny weather at least into the middle of next week, but at least it's going to warm up slightly. By midweek, highs will reach the low 50s. Not totally impressive, but at least that's close to normal for this time of year and an improvement over my frozen raised beds and icy walkway.

Extreme Weather Pattern Is About To Create Lots Of Extreme Weather

As of Sunday afternoon, the map on the home
page of the National Weather Service was lit up
with lots of colors. That signifies lots of weather
watches, warnings and alerts, meaning there will
be a lot to talk about in the weather over the coming days.
The dark green you see in Vermont is a flood watch.

The jet stream and the weather is going haywire again, which means we here in Vermont, and a lot of people throughout Earth's Northern Hemisphere are going to have plenty of extreme and bizarre weather over the next week or so.

THE PATTERN:

The polar vortex, that whirlpool of very cold air that pretty much always wanders around the Arctic, or at least near it, all the time has split into two pieces. That's rare, but it does happen occasionally.

One piece is ending up roughly over central and northwestern Canada, while the other piece is somewhere around Siberia. That means western North America and parts of Europe and interior Asia are turning quite cold.

The split in the polar vortex means another big squirt of warm air will enter the far northern Arctic, including around the North Pole. (This has been going on a lot lately.)

That's bad, because it's been very warm (for them) across much of the Arctic most of this winter. Sea ice extent is running at record lows.

That burst of above freezing air coming in for the high Arctic will just make things worse.

UNITED STATES SCREWED, TOO

Meanwhile, down here in the United States, a big, strong ridge of high pressure - basically an out of season Bermuda High, is about to pump record warm temperatures into the eastern third of the nation.

Out west, the position of one piece of the polar vortex means it's going to be quite cold over the next several days in the western third of the United States. Again, that's bad. It's been incredibly warm in California all winter. Plants and crops are blooming much earlier than normal as a result.

This cold air is going to nip lots of agricultural crops, especially in California's Central Valley. Hard freeze warnings are up, and it looks like the too-early blooming plants are going to get nailed. I expect millions of dollars in agricultural losses because of this. There also might be some shortages of produce in your supermarket.

More inland, winter storm warnings, watches and advisories are up for wide areas of the Rockies and northwestern Plains state.

Big chunks of The eastern half of the country is in trouble with this weather pattern, too. The orientation of this Bermuda high will help draw massive amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, leading to repeated rounds of torrential rains in a broad band from Texas to Michigan.

Many - but not all -  of these areas have had quite a lot of rain this month already. Some areas from northeastern Texas through Arkansas and into southern Ilinois could get seven or more inches of rain over the next week. There is a high chance of flooding, as you'd imagine.

VERMONT EFFECTS:

We barely got clipped by that storm that zipped by to our south last night. Most of us got one to three inches of snow, with a little less around Burlington and up to six inches and southern and eastern parts of the state.

It's kind of mild today, and some of the snow is starting to melt. But you haven't seen anything yet!

After the 30s today, it'll get into the 40s Monday and 50s to low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. That's definitely record territory.  This will be an unusually humid warm spell for this time of year. When the air is moist, snow tends to melt much faster than when the air is dry.

The start of a thaw. Snow sliding off my St. Albans, Vermont
roof today clings to the eaves in foot-long sheets. With
forecasts for highs near 60 by Tuesday and Wednesday,
this snow will be gone soon. 

Also, partly because of the humidity, temperatures will remain extremely warm Tuesday might.

Lows early Wednesday will probably stay above 50 degrees in the Champlain Valley. That's normal for late May, not February! That'll keep the snow melt going at a fast clip.

Also, there will be a fair bit of rain during this, especially over northern areas, which will be closer to a stalled front.

The combination of melting snow and the rain could lead to flooding. Most of Vermont and northern New York is now under a flood watch Monday through Wednesday.

The biggest problem here is the ice jams left behind from that other mega-thaw in January. They're still there, and this thaw and rain will either dam up water behind the ice jams, make the ice jams even bigger, or move them into more populated areas.

As we found out in towns like Swanton and Johnson back in January, this can quickly lead to destructive flooding.

So yeah, we'll probably have quite a bit to talk about in the weather department over the next several days.

Southeast Freeze Might Be $1 Billion Disaster. Hope You Won't Miss The Peaches

Destroyed, frost bitten peach blooms in South Carolina means
no peach crop this year. Photo by Cindy Kubovic/Aiken Standard

Farmers in the Southeast are reeling from last week's freeze that might have caused up to $1 billion in damage to crops.

We knew ahead of time there would be serious damage and that came to fruition, as there's not a heck of a lot you can do to stop the damage from a widespread freeze.

In South Carolina, 90 percent of the peach crop was wiped out, according to television station WISTV in Columbia, South Carolina.

State officials said they hoped to get federal aid to farmers, as some could face bankruptcy over this without help.

South Carolina is normally the second biggest peach producing state after California. The South Carolina crop is usually worth $90 million, says the Aiken (South Carolina) Standard. 

Wheat, strawberries, blueberries and corn in South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina and other states were also severely damaged, the Associated Press reportsd.

The freeze was at least as bad as an epic 2007 freeze that caused about $1 billion in crop losses, the AP says. 

This freeze was so damaging because a record warm February caused plants to grow and bloom prematurely across the Southeast.

Then, that nor'easter that dumped three feet of snow on us here in Vermont last week pumped lots of Arctic air into the Southeast, causing record low temperatures.

It got down to 25 degrees all the way down to Gainesville, Florida, which is the coldest on record there for so late in the season. 

Dead, frost-bitten cherry blossoms in Washington DC
this week. Photo by Kevin Ambrose via Washington Post

In Washington DC, the annual cherry blossom bloom is badly damaged.

Blossoms that had opened have turned brown because of the subfreezing temperatures, though many blossoms that had not yet opened probably survived and will bloom normally.

Perhaps half of Washington DC's cherry blossoms might not bloom, so the season is going to be subdued

Another blast of Arctic air is coming down from Canada this week, which could cause a little more damage to cherry blossoms in Washington.

Still, people in Washington are hoping any remaining buds might bloom and hide most of the dead, brown blossoms. Still, the whole thing is depressing. I haven't seen this cherry blossom frost destruction happen in Washington in my lifetime and few other people have, either.

However, unlike the freeze last week, the cold air will not punch down into the southeastern United States, so this won't cause any additional frost damage there.

In the Northeast, the cold will be deep and mid-wintry Wednesday and Thursday, but plants haven't come far enough along to have them get nipped by the freeze.

I'm pretty sure that everybody east of the Mississippi River is SO ready for spring, despite the super mild winter that just ended.

Big Winter Storm WILL Slam Northeast United States. Some Details Still Shaky

Here's a preliminary snowfall forecast issued Sunday
from the National Weather Service in South
Burlington for the upcoming nor'easter in Vermont
and northern New York. Click on the map to make it
bigger and easier to see. Looks like heaviest snow will
be east. Keep in mind the predicted snowfall totals
will almost definitely change between now and when
the storm gets here Tuesday. 

5:00 p.m. SUNDAY UPDATE

Not too much change so far to the forecast for the upcoming big storm in the Northeast. Most of the computer models are shifting the track of the storm a little bit with each run, but the oveall scenario remains basically the same.  

Still, there could still be some big busts in the forecasts. If the storm is closer to the coast, some areas near the water might get less snow and more rain than forecast.

If the storm shifts a little east, some inland locations will get less snow.

Winter storm watches have been upgraded to warnings across much of Pennsylvania, the southern half of New York, southern New England, and parts of Maryland and New Jersey.

Up here in Vermont, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says they've held off on upgrading the winter storm watch to a warning for now.

Most of the computer models put most if not all of Vermont in heavy snow Tuesday and Wednesday with this storm, but the American computer model keeps pushing the storm further east, which would limit snowfall in the Green Mountain State.

There's still time to see whether the American model will come on board with the other forecasts to determine whether we should upgrade to a warning in Vermont.

Again, snowfall forecasts are still tricky, but no matter what happens, it still seems likely the heaviest snow will come down in the southeastern half of Vermont.  It appears to be almost certain that it won't warm up enough anywhere in Vermont to worry about mixed precipitation or rain.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

For what it's worth, here's the Weather Channel''s forecast
for snow in the Northeast, as of Sunday morning.
The forecast could still change, so stay tuned. 

I was impressed Saturday afternoon by how readily National Weather Service offices throughout the Northeast United States hoisted winter storm watches for this Tuesday.

They usually don't post such watches that far in advance of a storm, but the early alerts reflected the confidence forecasters have that a whopper of a snowstorm is heading toward the Northeast.

The blast of deep winter weather is already starting to cause loads of trouble, especially in the Southeast, where what had been an early spring is getting decimated by winter cold.

There's a lot to unpack here, so I'll start with how all this is playing out, and then, for my Vermont readers, I'll get into how this is all giving the Green Mountain State thrills and especially chills.

WHAT'S HAPPENED SO FAR

One ingredient to what is the insipient big nor'easter cut across the Tennessee Valley and into the Carolinas, dumping a coating of what is for them a spring snowfall.

It snowed in Columbia, South Carolina this morning, making it only the 17th time it has snowed in March there since 1888.

Meanwhile, another ingredient for the going-to-be big nor-easters is steaming eastward across the northern Great Plains and through the Great Lakes region.

Even though this northern piece of the would-be storm is fairly moisture starved, it's robust. Strong enough to prompt winter storm warnings in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa for four to nine inches of snow.

It's also going to snow in Chicago. Think about it: Basically no snow in Chicago all through January and February, and now an expected three to six inches of snow there.

A rather rare snowfall in South Carolina Sunday morning. 

That this northern piece is strong is a good hint that the big nor'easter will be, well, really big.

THE NOR'EASTER FORECAST AND DANGER

As we said, meteorologists are extremely confident of a huge, damaging nor'easter Tuesday and Wednesday. The devil is in the details.

The big cities of the Northeast- Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York and Boston among them, have a great chance of receiving six to 18 inches of snow with this. Maybe a little more in a few spots.

The storm could be particularly destructive toward Washington DC, where some trees and plants have already blossomed amid an early spring. The wet snow will collect on these new leaves and break lots of branches.

Additionally, strong nor'easters like this one almost always pull very cold air far to the south behind them once they depart.

That spells the danger of killing freezes over a wide area of the Southeast, which has already seen some cold weather damage this weekend.

I hope you don't like peaches. Some agricultural meteorologists expect 90 percent of the peach crop to be wiped out in the Southeast this week if temperatures get as cold as forecast. We're talking well down into the 20s. Maybe even upper teens.

THE QUESTIONS

The computer models are still struggling with how close the storm will come to the coastline, but as of this morning, there's more of a trend for an offshore track.

That would slam the coastal cities with lots of snow, and reduce the amount of snow well inland somewhat.

The New York City region, Long Island, southern Connecticut and coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island are already under a blizzard watch for the expected heavy snow and strong winds.

The storm will have really wound up by the time it gets up near New England. There's still some questions as to how far inland from the southeast mixed precipitation and rain gets, but right now it appears it will stay all snow across New England, except on Cape Cod and the islands.

The nor'easter will almost definitely dump more than a foot of snow, cause damaging winds near the coast, and create coastal flooding and erosion in southern New England.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The Green Mountain State is going to be right on the line between heavy snow and lighter stuff. The southeastern half of Vermont is almost sure to get a very heavy snow, around a foot it looks like.

It will snow all over Vermont, but how much will fall over the northwestern part of the state is open to question.

I'm going to oversimplify things here in a very complicated forecast, but basically the European computer models take the storm slightly more offshore, which could limit snowfall in the northwestern part of Vermont.

The American computer model is slightly closer to the coast and predicts the storm will move more slowly, which would increase snow totals somewhat all over Vermont.

Another model, called the NAM, has the storm hugging the coast, putting Vermont in the sweet spot for some very, very heavy snow.

Both the European and American models are fairly reliable with nor'easters, and the NAM is only slightly less so, in  my opinion. My early guess is we might get closer to five inches of snow up in the northwestern tip of Vermont and close to a foot and a half in the southeast.

MAJOR CAVEAT: This preliminary forecast could change based on later information.

Given the strong chance of heavy snow anywhere in Vermont, the National Weather Service in South Burlington Vermont was smart to issue the winter storm watch for all of the state.

There will be tweaks to the forecast as more computer data comes in, and as the ingredients of the storm come together. Subtle differences in how these varying systems create the storm could make for big changes in the forecast.

It's Sunday. You've got until at least Monday night to make sure there's enough groceries in the house, enough time to figure out what to do if the schools are closed and the roads are a mess Tuesday.

Then sit back, and wait for updated forecasts. If meteorologist become sure there will be big snowstorm, they'll upgrade the watch to a warning, and we'll let you know.

On the bright side, it is going to warm up ever so slightly during the storm. It will remain much colder than normal for this time of year (Highs only in the 20s) but that's better than Saturday.

The high temperature in Burlington Saturday was just 11 degrees, the coldest daytime  high temperature on record for March 11. The old record was 14. Montpelier also set a date record for the lowest high temperature for March 11. It only got up to 7 above.

By the way, the cold spot in Vermont this morning was Walden, at 16 below.  Burlington got down to 0 Saturday and 4 this morning,  neither of which were record lows.

Cold Blast Underway Ugly Mess This Weekend

Snow blowing across a road in St. Albans, Vermont
Thursday made for slow going at times. Things
got worse, and much colder, later in the day. 

As expected, you're going to freeze your tush off this morning.

It's below zero pretty much everywhere in northern New England and New York, and winds are still pretty biting out there. Wind chills at dawn are in the minus teens in many areas.

Take extra time to start your car and drive to work. Roads aren't great, because there's some snow an ice on them, and it's too cold for salt to work.

While you're grumbling about this, at least be thankful you're not atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire.

As of 4 a.m. it was 33 below zero with a northwest wind gusting to 85 mph for a wind chill of 84 below.

Lovely.

The core of the cold air was passing just to the north of New England. You could see it in reports from southeastern Quebec. At 4 a.m. Sherbrooke was at minus 13 with a wind chill of 38 below.

Next up for us in the Northeast: Out of the freezer and into the wintry mix.

The next storm is going to produce a dramatic, if brief warm up around here in New England, but we'll pay the price with a messy mix of winter weather.

Actually, most of the nation is joining in on this icy, snowy fun.

Like the cross country storm last week, this one is causing, or will cause, unpleasant winter weather from coast to coast.

Only this storm is stronger than last week's, so the weather in many cases will be worse. And the trouble areas are even bigger than in the mid-sized storm last week.

Winter storm warnings, watches and advisories stretch through a remarkably huge area of the United States, from Oregon to Maine and from New Mexico to Michigan

By my count, parts or all of 35 states were under some sort of winter advisory or warning as of early Friday morning.

What fun!

Up here for us northern New Englanders, snow will break out after midnight tonight and continue well into Saturday. Expect poor travel conditions as another three to five inches of snow blankest Vermont and surrounding areas.

There might be a lull in the precipitation Saturday afternoon and early evening, before a wave of mixed precipitation moves in.

In the Champlain Valley and lowlands of southern Vermont and central and southwestern New Englan and coastal areas, it will be mostly rain. In New York's St. Lawrence Valley, areas east of the Green Mountains in Vermont and in much of New Hampshire and Maine, it will be freezing rain.

That's not good!

As you can imagine, the entire Northeast is under a winter weather advisory this weekend.

And before you get too smug in the areas that go to plain rain, you're still screwed. We had all that Arctic air, so rain falling on pavement that had gotten chilled by this Arctic cold blast will freeze, even if the air temperature is above 32 degrees.

Expect more travel headaches Saturday night and Sunday morning, that's for sure.

It'll be mild part of the day Sunday before a cold front swings in during the afternoon. Guess what! A flash freeze!

All that half melted snow from the mild weather and rain part of Sunday will instantly turn to hard ice as temperatures plunge to near zero Sunday night. Roads will again turn into icy nightmares for our Monday commute.

Just when you thought this very inconvenient winter weather will never end, it will, for a time.

After that next Arctic blast this weekend and early next week, warmer and less stormy weather should temporarily envelop most of the nation for the majority of next week.

Here in Vermont and the rest of New England, look for temperatures to start trending to above normal for Wednesday or Thursday, with little precipitation in the forecast by that time.

New England, Northern New York To Freeze Tonight

It's been a summery May so far in New England, but
widespread frosts and freezes are likely in the
interior Northeast tonight.  

After a brutal winter, things went directly to summer this May around my house in St. Albans, Vermont and in the rest of New England and northern New York.

Temperatures have run well above normal, and we've had spates of summerlike 80 degree weather and humidity.

That had people asking me if it was OK for them to set out their tomato plants and other sensitive vegetation earlier than usual. I've cautioned against it, over and over.

Well, I told you not to do it, so don't cry to me if your sensitive garden plants bite the dust in tonight's cold.

Freeze warnings are up tonight for a big swath across much of New York and New England. Northern Pennsylvania is under the gun, too. It takes just one cold night in an otherwise warm month to really screw things up, and tonight's your proof.

If you're able to bring any frost sensitive plants indoors tonight, do it. If you put your tomato plants in your gardens, cover them up, but even that might not do any good.

It'll probably get cold enough, especially away from Lake Champlain and away from larger urban areas, like Montreal, Quebec and Albany, New York, to kill pretty much any tomato, pepper, cucumber or squash plant out there.

Attention garden centers and nurseries: Be ready for a flood of Saturday customers shopping for  plants to replace the ones frozen and blackened by tonight's freeze.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the coldest hollows in the Adirondacks and far northern New England get into the low 20s tonight. Most places away from the Champlain Valley will get below freezing.

The only place in northern New England that seems relatively safe from the frost is Grand Isle County, Vermont. That spot is surrounded by the comparatively warm Lake Champlain, and should pretty much escape the frost.

After the frost and freeze Saturday morning, it'll start to warm up, especially by Sunday.

All of next week, it's back to our early summer in the Northeast, with daily highs in the 80s, fairly high humidity and daily chances of afternoon thundershowers. A few places could maybe, just may e  reach 90 degree in the Northeast on Wednesday.

My advice? It's finally safe to put your tomatos and peppers out in your garden maybe on Monday, Memorial Day. Which is the traditional northern New England benchmark and when you should do this.

I told ya!

Nasty Frost and Freeze Tonight in Vermont, Rest of Interior Northeast

Frost on a flower last autumn in St. Albans, Vermont.
Similar scenes are likely tomorrow morning.  

The growing season is about to come to an end in a wide swath of northern New York, pretty much all of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, and in many valleys of the Northeast.

Freeze and frost warnings are up for this entire region as temperatures tonight will go down into the 20s  and low 30s.

The Adirondacks and the northern half of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley are under a freeze warning, as temperatures there are expected to fall below 32 degrees.

In the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont, there's a frost advisory up for tonight for temperatures expected to be between 32 and 35 degrees.

Here's why there's a frost advisory in those places: Temperatures are normally measured at five feet off the ground. On clear, calm nights, the temperature might go down to 33 or 34 degrees, so you think, "Phew! no frost."

But you'd be wrong. Right down at ground level, five feet below the thermometer, it's often one to three degrees colder than what the thermometer is reading. . So you can get a damaging frost even though the temperature officially never sank below 32 degrees.

In the "warmer" areas under a frost advisory, you probably can save most of your flowers and garden veggies by covering them up.  And of course you can bring potted plants indoors.

But for valleys in the Adirondacks of New York,  and much of Vermont and New Hampshire, I wonder if even covering plants will be enough as temperatures slump into the 20s.

Whether this upcoming frost and freeze is earlier than normal depends upon where exactly you are. For many people, this frost and freeze will come one to three weeks earlier than normal. But for other areas, it's right on schedule.

In Vermont, the first frost of the fall season normally hits anywhere between early September in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom to mid-October near Lake Champlain. (Early September frosts are also pretty normal in Adirondack valleys like around Saranac Lake and in parts of northern New Hampshire)

Those cold spots have already had frosts and freezes this month, so they already had their normal end to the growing season.

In central and eastern Vermont, tonight's expected freeze is about one to two weeks earlier than normal, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

In Vermont, the water in Lake Champlain maintains its warmth into the fall, and that helps keep that area a little warmer, and usually delays the first freeze of the season.

The first 32 degree reading of the season in Burlington, Vermont is around October 7. I'm not sure if Burlington will reach 32 degrees tonight, but it will be close.

If it does, it won't be the earliest 32 degree reading on record. The earliest 32 on record was on Sept. 13, 1964.  The record low for Friday morning in Burlington is 32 degrees, set in 1955, so we might flirt with tying or breaking the record low for the date.

Because the Champlain Islands between New York and Vermont are surrounded by warm-ish lake water, that area is the only one in the interior Northeast not under any kind of frost or freeze advisory. It should stay at least a few degrees above freezing in places like South Hero, Vermont and Cumberland Head, New York.

The northern half of New Hampshire and much of Maine is under a freeze watch for tonight, and I bet that will be upgraded to a warning later today.

After a brief warm up this weekend, it will turn chilly again for a few days early next week. The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont said there's even the possibility of the first snow flurries of the season atop higher mountains like Jay Peak and Mount Mansfield Monday night or Tuesday morning.