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| Will kids be test driving their new sleds Christmas morning in our area, like these youngsters? It all depends upon how a busy weather pattern works itself out between now and December 25. |
Christmastime is a busy time of year anyway, and Mother Nature is definitely getting into the act. She's going to be very busy and keeping us very busy through Christmast and the end of the year.
Locally in northern New England, the current storm, a weak-ish one, has behaved so far largely as expected. There was a general one to three inch snowfall yesterday afternoon and evening across northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Things were going over to rain showers this morning, though there was still freezing rain (ugh!) in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.
It will be thawish around here today, with light rain showers and mild temperatures, but that won't last long. More on that in a minute. I told you I'd be jumping around.
Across the southern United States, from Texas to Georgia, there's a LOT of fog around. That's not helping with the aftermath of the big power failure Sunday at Atlanta's major hub of an airport. They're trying to clear a backlog of stranded passengers from that event, and the widespread fog is delaying even more flights. Another ugh.
Back to us here in Vermont: The warm, and in some places windy weather today will be replaced by a cold front today that will bring temperatures back a little below normal by Wednesday night. (Temperatures will get below freezing tonight, and either fall or hold steady during the day Wednesday.)
That, and the cold weather predicted for Thursday is just what we told you about in Sunday's post, so again, so far, accurate enough.
The further out you get in a forecast, the less likely it will match reality. We did say there would be another temperature swing by Saturday and it would thaw again. That remains true, but the Friday and Saturday storm will turn out to be messy, just as I has worried about.
Again, this is subject to change, but here's the current scenario. The Friday and Saturday storm is still expected to go by to the west of New England, putting us on the warm side of the storm. However, the storm will be a little closer to us than first expected, so it won't be quite as warm as we first thought, and it will be harder to scour out the cold air Friday night and early Saturday.
It looks like snow will overspread the area Friday and Friday night, then change to sleet and freezing rain. It will be especially tough for the cold air to retreat from the valleys of eastern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, northwestern Maine and the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, so late Friday and the first half of Saturday at this point look pretty ugly and icy for those regions.
A brief thaw will probably ensue Satuday afternoon and early evening, but instead of temperatures in the 50s, it'll be closer to 40 degrees in most places. Then another cold front comes through, and the weather gets super uncertain for Christmas Eve and especially Christmas Day around here.
A sharp Arctic outbreak is coming into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area late this week and this weekend. It will initially have trouble pushing east. We don't yet know how much trouble. All we know at this point is there will probably be a sharp contrast east to west across the far eastern part of the United States, including New England.
Chances are, it might be springlike in Boston and Arctic in Burlington, but we don't know for sure yet. Making things more complicated, there will likely be storminess riding up along the East Coast on Christmas Day. We don't know yet how much precipitation there will be, who will get snow, who will get freezing rain, and who will get rain. The potential is high - but not certain - for a messy Christmas Day in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.
Meanwhile, much of the rest of the nation is not going to catch a break for the days leading up to Christmas, Christmas Day, and the days leading up to New Year's Day. After the fog clears in the south, areas of heavy rain, localized flash flooding and occasional threats of severe thunderstorms are likely in different parts of the South off and on today through Sunday.
That frigid air mass will keep things Arctic and below zero in parts of the Northern Plains and northern Great Lakes later this week and on Christmas weekend. On the bright side, it won't be the coldest Christmas ever, but it will still be a very Jack Frost type of holiday.
The fire threat in southern California has temporarily diminished, but will likely ramp up dramatically by the weekend, so their wildfire nightmare still isn't over yet.
Escaping to Hawaii? Good luck: The island chain is under a flash flood watch at least through late Wednesday night.
How about Alaska? They've been having what is for them record warmth. It'll stay warm up there for the next week at least, but much of that huge state is covered by a variety of winter weather, winter storm and blizzard warnings and advisories.
By the way, the weather pattern looks extremely active across almost the entire nation from Christmas onward through at least the first few days of 2018. Expect more weather news during your Christmas, and when you ring in the new year.
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