Another Rough Day In California Fire Fight

This weeks wildfires in California sends a blizzard of embers
down a Ventura County street, helping to spread the fires
to new areas. Photo by Marcus Yam/LA Times.

Though Santa Ana winds haven't strengthened quite as much as forecast - at least not yet - today is another dire day in southern California's wildfire fight.

The threat is far from over: Winds might still increase a lot during the day today, and the region is bracing for the worst.

At least five large fires are either not contained at all, or just tiny portions of them are. And the very dry air and the gusty winds mean new fires could easily break out and spread rapidly.

As of early this morning, the Los Angeles Times was reporting new evacuations around the city of Ojai, and parts Highway 101, a major artery, is closed. The famous 405 closed near the Getty Center during a wildfire yesterday, causing major disruptions.

The fire near the Getty Center ripped through posh, iconic neighborhoods in Brentwood and Bel Air, destroying some multi-million dollar mansions.

Dry Santa Ana winds are fairly common in southern California in December, but wildfires like this are not. That's largely because by this time a year, a few early season Pacific storms would have rolled through the Los Angeles area, dropping some rain that would have kept vegetation a little wetter and not so prone to burn.

But it's been one of the driest starts to the winter rainy season on record. Since October 1, Los Angeles has only received 0.11 inches of rain. They should have gotten about two inches since then.

After a break last year, it's beginning to look like the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" is returning to the West Coast. That's a weather pattern in which there's a big northward bulge in the jet stream in western North America, and a corresponding big dip in the East.

This pattern deflects Pacific storms away from California and was largely responsible for the epic drought the state endured in 2012-2015. Last year the ridge was more absent and it was wetter. Now it's back. Climate scientists say this winter weather pattern could well be a sign that climate change is screwing around with the jet stream, and this Ridiculously Resilient Ridge could be a much more permanent feature.

This has direct implications for us here in Vermont. Although the climate has warmed here, and winters are definitely warm, the weather pattern I've just described opens the door for nasty winter cold waves and snowstorms that interrupt our generally milder trend. This pattern is what gave us the very chilly winters of 2014 and 2015, for instance.

There are signs the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge could stay in place much of this upcoming winter. That might mean the return of a California drought, and maybe some really frigid and prolonged cold waves here in the Northeast. As I always say, stay tuned!