That Big Messy Christmas Weekend Winter Storm In Vermont Just Got Bigger, Messier

Updated forecasts call for generally six to 12 inches of
new snow and ice over the region by Sunday morning.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.

I hope you've got a strong back and a strong constitution: The storm coming in today and Saturday for Vermont and surrounding regions looks like it'll be a nasty one.

At least nastier than we originally thought. On the big bright side, we're now guaranteed a white Christmas.

The National Weather  Service for the past 12 to 18 hours or so have been busily upgraded the winter weather advisories in Vermont to winter storm warnings, which now cover the entire state.

Expect a storm total six to 12 inches of snow, along with some ice. Ick.

Winter storm warnings are also up for much of eastern New York and southern and central New Hampshire. 

This storm is coming in two waves. The first is sort of easy-ish to forecast, but the second phase is a bear.

Let's break it down. A surge of moisture today is causing snow to break out. It was already snowing through central New York and southern Vermont before dawn today, and that will work its way north. Through the day and into the evening, expect a general three to five inches of snow for most of Vermont. (As usual, a few towns might get slightly less, and a couple of other towns will probably hit the jackpot and receive more, but you get the idea.)

That snow will taper to areas of snow flurries and freezing drizzle late tonight, in anticipation of very messy Round 2 on Saturday.

I'm as amazed as the National Weather Service in South Burlington that computer models earlier in the week had us at 50 degrees with rain on Saturday, now, this. By this, I mean a complicated mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and maybe rain on Saturday, with temperatures during the day near the 32 degrees.

What exactly will fall from the sky in any particular spot at any particular time in Vermont and surrounding areas is almost impossible to say. Forcasters are trying, but I think it's just best to go with the broad brush: Mixed precipitation on Saturday wherever you are. Could be freezing rain one minute the next, sleet a minute later, maybe some snow, maybe some cold non-freezing rain.

Overall, the worst of the ice will be in the eastern half of Vermont and into New Hampshire. There, the temperature is less likely to sneak above freezing for any time at all, so freezing rain will pile up on cars, trees and power lines.

Bad roads are the main concern with this, but there might be enough ice in a few spots in eastern and central Vermont, much of New Hampshire and into parts of New York and northern Massachusetts were some branches and electrical lines could snap under the weight of the ice. I don't believe this will be a devastating, multi-day disaster with power failures, but it will be inconvenient for some, for sure.

Ice will be a problem all the way into Maine and parts of the Maritime Provinces of Canada, too. Maybe also parts of southern Quebec.

All this slop will change back to snow Saturday night, with a few more inches of accumulation.  As I said, the grand total of snow, sleet and ice accumulation looks like it will be in the six to 12 inch category.

It'll be pretty much over by Sunday morning, but the cleanup will be back-breaking, with all that wet snow, ice, slush and mess to get rid of.  If you're older and out of shape, put a teenager to work cleaning that up. This is not worth a Christmas heart attack.

Then there's Christmas. It's still uncertain, but current projections are that the expected new storm will be fairly weak and to the east. That said, it will very likely snow on Christmas Day, and the roads will turn slick again. At this point, anyway, we're not expecting a huge new accumulation, but it sees like we'll get a little additional snow, anyway.

If you're not exhausted from all that, the door opens to an Arctic blast next week. By Thursday, high temperatures will stay at or below zero, and nighttime lows will be in the minus teens. Then add the wind chill factor to that. Brrrr!!!!

By the way, it's too soon to get into details, but the weather pattern appears to favor very cold weather and possible bouts of storminess continuing right into the second week of January. Are we shaping up for a tough winter? Not sure yet but it's beginning to look like that.