Gradually Colder Slide Coming Northeast; Another Scare California Fire Disaster

OK, it's going to turn colder in
Vermont by the weekend, but
I don't think it's exactly going to
be the new Ice Age. Just
kinda normal, really.

That long-awaited plunge into winter here in the Northeast starts with a change in the weather pattern today, but that  wintry plunge will actually be a gentle slide down toward winter conditions.

Meanwhile, in southern California, things are anything but gentle. Another wildfire disaster was unfolding this morning, especially around Ventura, California. I'll have details further down in this post.

GENTLE VERMONT EARLY WINTER

Around here in Vermont, Mother Nature is going to let you gradually get used to winter.

The transition begins today with a lot of wind, especially in Vermont and New York's Champlain Valley, where a wind advisory is now in effect. Gusts could go over 50 mph, especially right near Lake Champlain and the islands. I've noticed trees weakened in that big October wind are still coming down on gusty days, so that could happen today. Be prepared for scattered power outages.

A band of rain will come through this afternoon and tonight along and ahead of that cold front. That front and a storm system caused some nasty weather in the upper Plains yesterday, with snow and wind gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range causing some blizzard conditions in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota.

Nothing like that here. When you get a big pattern change like we're undergoing now, the change in the Northeast is often gradual, and it takes several cold fronts to get us toward winter. That first cold front will have sort of run out of gas, and the air behind it on Wednesday, at least for us, won't be cold at all.

It'll actually be nice for early December, with highs in the 35 to 45 degree range and only a few scattered showers.

After that, going into Thursday, Friday and the weekend, conditions will be very close to normal for early December. Nothing extreme at all. In the valleys on those days, high temperatures will reach the 30s, which is perfectly average for this time of year. There might be a few flurries and snow showers around, but nothing to get excited about.

The mountains might pick up a few inches of snow over that period. That's especially true in the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. That's because lake effect snows will be battering areas downwind of Lake Ontario and some of that moisture will make its way to the mountains of New York and Vermont.

This is actually a great set up for the "Jay Cloud" in which Jay Peak, in northern Vermont, keeps getting persistent snow. The skiers and riders there will be particularly happy.

Little cold fronts will keep coming through, so next week will be colder yet. But don't worry: Even that won't be so extreme in these parts. It'll be enough to keep you in the Christmas spirit, with below freezing temperatures and bouts of light snows, but this will continue to be just typically cold December weather.

We can handle it.

SCARY CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES YET AGAIN

Strong Santa Ana winds are blowing in southern California and are expected to keep doing so at least into Thursday. Relative humidities in some spots are in the single digits and winds are gusting to more than 60 mph in many areas, especially near mountain passes and canyons.

A large wildfire approaching Ventura, California early
Tuesday. The fire is fanned by strong Santa Ana winds
and dry weather. Conditions are not forecast to
improve at least through Thursday. 

And, the inevitable wildfires have resulted. The biggest started Monday and within hours had spread to 15 square miles. At last report, it was spreading super, super fast, kind of like fatal, cataclysmic Santa Rosa wildfire earlier this year.

Tens of thousand of people have been evacuated. The fire was heading toward the city of Santa Paula, where 30,000 people live. It could get even worse. The wildfire's next destination looks to be the city of Ventura, population 106,000.

Much of the fire is burning through vegetation that hasn't burned in decades, which is contributing to the ferociousness of the blaze. One person has already died while trying to flee the fire, and several homes have already gone up in flames.

The Los Angeles Times reported early this morning that firefighters were already going block to block in Ventura trying to stop the fire. Many buildings, including a large apartment complex were already engulfed in flames.

The weather forecast in southern California is not good. It'll stay super dry and windy through Thursday. The wind might diminish a bit Tuesday night and Wednesday, but by Wednesday night and Thursday, return with even stronger gusts that what's going on now.