Monday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Ski Areas To Rejoice

Compared to this morning, forecast snow totals
from the National Weather Service in South
Burlington, Vermont have been nudged up a bit.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier
to se. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has nudged their predictions for the expected snowfall Tuesday and Wednesday upward a little bit.  

This is especially true in the mountains.

The storm is coming in from the west, which means it won't initially have all that much moisture to deal with. That usually means we won't get that much snow.

But this is a strong, dynamic storm, if moisture-starved at first, so it will be efficient at laying down some pretty good snows.

Although this storm track and strength is somewhat unusual, I've seen it before. And what usually happens with this type of scenario is the valleys, especially in western and southern Vermont, get "meh" accumulations, but the mountains (read, ski areas) make out like bandits.

The South Burlington NWS has expanded winter storm warnings to cover all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley and the western half of Rutland County. The western half of Bennington County, covered by the NWS office in Albany, also escapes the winter storm warning.

Winter storm warnings are up for New York's St. Lawrence and Mohawk valleys. The northern half of New Hampshire and northwestern Maine are also covered by the winter storm warnings.

Areas I've not mentioned are generally under winter weather advisories, which implies slightly lower snow accumulations.

As I mentioned this morning, the storm will come in two phases. The first is during the day Tuesday. Interestingly, the eastern side of the Green Mountains will get the most snow out of this first phase. The western slopes of the Greens, definitely covered under the winter storm warning, will miss out, and get fairly light snow.

Expect a general two to six inches of snow, with locally more, during the first phase. The "locally more" will be mostly along the eastern slopes.

Phase Two comes in Wednesday, when the wind shifts to the west and northwest. That's when the western slopes of the Greens get clobbered and the eastern slopes get much lighter stuff.

Although the entire region - Vermont, northern New York, northern New England and southern Ontario and Quebec will feel the effect of this storm, the type of storm and its track is one of those that I like: Not quite as bad in the valleys with only moderate accumulations, but hefty totals in the ski country of the Adirondacks, Green Mountains, White Mountains and the Laurentians.

This is a long duration storm, so even in the valleys, the commutes during Tuesday morning and afternoon, Wednesday morning and probably Wednesday evening will be affected.

Overall, accumulations will be a bit higher region wide than we said this morning, if National Weather Service forecasts turn out to be accurate. It looks like six or seven inches in the Champlain Valley with up to a foot in the mountains.

This storm looks made for the northern Green Mountains. I wouldn't be surprised to see 18 inch totals near the summits of places like Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak.

This snow will stick around for awhile, as it is expected to remain relatively cold for the next several days at least.

Unlike November, which had an unusually quiet weather pattern, the rest of December looks active, with frequent chances of precipitation. (Notice I said precipitation. I'm not guaranteeing just snow between now and Christmas. Could be some mixes or rain at times, too, we'll see.)

Still, I think the chances of a white Vermont Christmas look pretty decent. Time will tell.





One interesting thing is that in the winter