Quick Friday Evening Update: Round Two Of Vermont Storm To Be Messier

A pleasant steady snow, fitting for the holiday season, fell on
Burlington, Vermont's Intervale Friday. Get ready for some
uglier winter weather starting Saturday. 

As I'm writing this, it's 6 p.m. Friday evening, and I trust a lot of you have made it home safely.  

We're nearing the end of the kinder, gentler Phase 1 of this two phase winter storm. Too bad we just can't stop at this. It's very Christmas-y out there.

That's true even though we had dozens of people slide off Vermont roads today amidst the snow. I'm sure in some cases it was nobody's fault, but there's a few of you out there that, ahem, have lived in Vermont for decades and still haven't figured out that ice is slippery.

Anyway, Friday featured a nice, light fluffy snow, and fairly calm winds. The snow has piled up on the trees and everything else, and it's very Currier and Ives out there.

But of course, we're talking Mother Nature, and she's going to destroy this idyllic scene. Or at least damage it. And she's still going to annoy us with ice and mixed precipitation on Saturday.

So far, we've generally gotten two to six inches of snow across most of Vermont. Burlington is closing in on six inches, but I just got home to my place in St. Albans, less than 30 miles north of Burlington, and I only have 2.1 inches of new snow. That's OK. Still pretty, and two inches of fluff is easy to shovel off the driveway.

The snow is tapering off, and will just come in light fits and starts tonight, and begin to mix with sleet overnight, too. That sets the stage for what could be a really ugly Saturday. Sorry.

The next, stronger wave of precipitation will sweep into Vermont Saturday morning and continue through the day. The anticipation stil is that the western half of the state will have sleet, freezing rain, then maybe a few hours of cold rain before things go back to snow in the afternoon or evening.

Many eastern areas might not get above freezing, which raises the alarm for quite a bit of ice accumulation from freezing rain. Most places east of the Greens will probably get only a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. That makes the roads a dangerous skating rink, but not enough to bring down trees and power lines.

But a few places could still see a quarter to a third of an inch of ice accumulation, which could bring down some branches and power lines. Like I said this morning, nothing like the epic ice storm of 1998, but still not good.

At some point Saturday afternoon, colder air will start moving in, and the rain or ick will change to snow from west to east across the region. It's hard to say exactly when this will happen, but road conditions will rapidly deteriorate as this happens.

That's especially true in areas that go to a plain, cold rain west of the Greens earlier Saturday. I'm writing off the areas east of the Greens as a travel nightmare all day. In the Champlain Valley, there might, maybe be a late morning/early afternoon window in which we'll get just a plain, cold rain, and the roads won't be too bad if you have late breaking Christmas errands.

But the roads will rapidly get bad as rain changes to snow, and a lot of people might be caught out on the roads as they get super slippery super fast. Again, I'm not sure exactly what time this will happen Saturday afternoon or early evening, but beware.

Needless to say, winter storm warnings remain in effect through Saturday evening across Vermont. 

The snow will taper to flurries later Saturday night. Sunday - Christmas Eve - still looks quiet. But we're still looking at snow to redevelop late Sunday night and continue through much of Christmas Day.

I'm still thinking the Christmas snow won't be a blockbuster, but perhaps there will be one to six inches of snow, the least off to the northwest, the most in the higher elevations in southern Vermont.

On top of that, it still looks like it will start to turn brutally cold Tuesday or Wednesday, and this will last awhile. At least beyond Friday. Though by no means will this be the worst cold wave Vermont has ever endured, it probably will be the most intense and longest such Arctic outbreak since at least February, 2015, or February 2014.