Worries Rise Over Possible Big New England Flood Sunday/Monday

Parts of the Northeast, including most of New England
can expect two to six inches of rain over the next
few days because of a series of storms.
Flooding will be risk Sunday and Monday.

I'm getting a little worried about a very, very wet storm that is due to strike New England Sunday and Monday.  

If things gather together the way some computer forecasting models suggest, there could be some nasty floods for parts of the region by Sunday night or Monday.

Of course, we do not know yet for sure if these floods will develop, and if they do, exactly where the worst of it will be and how bad.

Parts of New England are already dealing with flood problems. Most of the issues are in southern and eastern parts of the region.

A slow moving front touched off flooding in sections of New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts and Connecticut Tuesday night and Wednesday.

That same weather front is still stalled in or near eastern New England today. A little storm riding north along the front has brought renewed rains to all of New England, and some of it is enough to trigger new flood alerts, especially in central Massachusetts and Downeast Maine.

This, however, is potentially only a warmup.

A new, slow moving cold front is likely to approach the East Coast and move into the Northeast Sunday. There will be little storms rippling northward along the front again to enhance the rain. Worse, it looks like the last storm moving northward along the front will tap intense moisture from a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea. 

This last storm will probably strenghten into a nor'easter and dump boatloads of rain on New England and eastern New York. It's possible - not definite, but possible - that the storm could dump three to six inches of rain on part of the region. That's what could spell the big flood problems, especially in areas that had heavy rain this week.

Especially along the coast, the storm later Sunday could bring winds strong enough to take down some trees and power lines.

Here in Vermont, my first guess is the threat is a bit lower, only because the autumn has been kind of dry and there's room for water to soak in. But don't bet on it. If it rains hard enough, we, too, could be looking at flood problems come later Sunday or Monday.

This seems to have been a pattern we've seen all year, and to an extent previous years: It gets too dry, then we have too much rain too fast, then it gets dry again. Rinse and repeat.

There's no need to panic over Sunday's potential storm, but I would keep watching for updated forecasts, especially if you live in a flood-prone area.