After A Brief Break, Another Hurricane Threat For The United States

Just some of the computer models for the future
track of what could well become Hurricane Nate.
As you can see by the variety of potential paths,
the forecast for Nate is still uncertain, but it
really does pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

For a few blissful days, there hasn't been much in the way of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, and, thankfully, nothing to speak of near the United States except for a weak tropical disturbance near Florida.

Unfortunately, that started to change yesterday as a tropical depression formed near Nicaragua. That depression this morning strengthened to Tropical Storm Nate, which has a strong chance of becoming a hurricane.

Nate will likely cause big problems in Nicaragua and Honduras, Mexico, probably Cuba and, yes, the United States.

The tropical depression was having a hard time strengthening into Tropical Storm Nate early this morning because it was interacting with land over Nicaragua and Honduras. (Tropical storms and hurricanes only strengthen over warm water.)

Still, the storm is likely to cause dangerous flooding in those two countries today.

From there, Nate will head north and emerge over the toasty waters of the western Caribbean Sea, where it will likely strengthen. Before it gets too strong, the storm will likely clip Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

It's unclear whether what is now Nate will be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane by the time it gets to the Yucatan Peninsula sometime Friday night or early Saturday morning, but it will cause wind, flooding rain and possible storm surge problems there.

From there, Nate will move northward over the Gulf of Mexico toward the United States. The water in the Gulf of Mexico is very warm, which tropical systems love if they want to strengthen.

The big question is how much will this would-be hurricane strengthen before its inevitable landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Some models barely bring this to hurricane strength, it at all. Other computer forecast models dramatically strengthen Nate over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it a terrible threat to parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast by late Sunday or early Monday.

This far out, its exact track is also uncertain, but a zone from Louisiana through most of the Florida Panhandle are at risk. Wouldn't you know this is an area that is relatively unscathed between the flood devastation from Hurricane Harvey in Texas and southwestern Louisiana, and the Florida Peninsula, which was raked by Hurricane Irma last month.

So, once again, the United States is bracing for a possible disastrous hurricane.

Up here where we live in Vermont, it's possible the remnants of Nate could affect us next week. On the plus side, if it does, it would dump a big slug of rain on us, which we need. (The relatively modest rains that fell over northern Vermont last night helped a little,  but we need a lot more to get over our current dry spell.)

On the negative side, a gusty, heavy rain from a former tropical storm could short circuit some of the fall foliage, which is finally beginning to develop over the North Country - much later than normal due to the record September heat we had.

I can't give you any specifics, since the track of Nate is so uncertain.