Major Northeast Flood/Wind Storm Still Due; Forecast Is Tricky

The heaviest rain with this storm is now expected
to be across New York State, but downpours will'
happen throughout the Northeast. Forecast is
of course subject to change. 

A variety of weather alerts are up for the northeastern United States, including Vermont, as the region braces for the big storm we've been anticipating for days now.

Most of the alerts are flash flood watches. Those flash flood watches cover all of New England except northern Maine and Vermont's Champlain Valley. (I'll explain that in a bit)

Also covered under the flash flood watches are pretty much all of New York State except the far west, and sections of northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

High wind watches are up for many areas, especially southern and eastern New England, which looks like will take the brunt of the wind.

The expected path of the main storm system has shifted a little west, so the heaviest rain now seems most likely in eastern and central New York. That said, the path of the storm is not set in stone, because there's a lot of moving parts to this forecast.

That tropical disturbance that is feeding a lot of moisture into this storm system will probably become Tropical Storm Philippe later today.  (And it will bring heavy rains to places like Cuba and South Florida.)

While wannabe Philippe probably won't become the rapidly strengthening storm system in the Northeast Sunday night, it's coming along for the ride.

Wannabe Philippe will probably move northeastward, but off the coast in tandem with the main storm as it moves north. The question is how much of Philippe's energy will be absorbed into the more inland main storm?

We know we're in for a big storm regardless of what happens, but if Philippe's moves further west than expected, more of its energy will become part of the main show that will affect us here in the Northeast.

Regionwide, it looks like the heaviest rain and strongest winds will sweep through Sunday night and the first part of Monday.

There could be locally up to six inches of rain in the core of the heaviest precipitation in New York State, which certainly explains the flood watches there. Slightly lesser amounts, but still heavy downpours, are likely in New England.

For most of New England, including all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley, the combination of this week's heavy rain along with the new big storm arriving has prompted flash flood watches.

The Champlain Valley has no flood watch, at least for now, because the rain this past week was lighter there, and the rainfall with the upcoming storm, while quite heavy, won't be as bad as in New York State.

But stay tuned. Everyone is refining forecasts, and the Champlain Valley could easily be added to the flood watch zone.

As I said yesterday, I don't think this will rise to the level of Hurricane Irene flooding, at least in most areas. But parts of New York in particular could have some serious problems. Even here in Vermont, there's the potential this could go beyond the level of the usual nuisance flooding that closes low-lying roads.

If you live in a flood prone area anywhere in the Northeast, including pretty much anywhere in Vermont, pay close attention to this one. You might have to get out of the way of flood waters pronto, and you won't have much lead time.

As far as winds go, the strongest winds are usually on the east side of this type of storm system, which explains why eastern and southern New England are under the high wind watches.

The expected track of the storm will probably take it close to Vermont (this idea is subject to change) so perhaps the winds won't be as bad here. Still, it will get pretty gusty Sunday through Monday, especially in higher elevations, so expect some power failures in Vermont, and throughout the Northeast.

This is a much stronger and wetter storm than we're used to, even here in stormy New England. This one is a hunker down type thing. Pay attention Monday morning, as your commute or trip to school might be screwed up by flooding and/or wind.

Predictions right up to and during the storm will shift, so pay attention to updated alerts, warnings and forecasts. Not only is this storm going to be quite strong, it's a weird one meteorologically.

It's hard to forecast weird storms. So expect the unexpected.