New England To Turn VERY Wet; Critical Fire Danger Again In California

Lots of rain forecast for the East this week. Bright red
areas indicate an expected three inches of rain
or more over the next seven days.

The long, incredible stretch of dry, sunny and unseasonably warm weather is about to end here in the Northeast, in favor of a turn toward very, very wet weather.

Meanwhile, southern California is bracing for what could be more destructive wildfires.

I'll start with our local situation here in New England, though it's not nearly as dangerous as the one in California.

HEAVY RAIN COMING

The approaching storm system is really just a slow moving, wiggly cold front with waves of relatively weak low pressure riding north along it.

But this weather front is scooping up tons and tons of tropical moisture, so it looks like it will rain quite hard at times, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday. This fire hose of moisture and heavier rain will work its way slowly eastward across the region during this time.

Severe thunderstorms and even a few tornadoes could accompany this mess of a storm. The threat of severe storms and a couple of tornadoes today is down in the Carolinas and Virginia. On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms runs through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York's Hudson Valley and even into Vermont.

South of Vermont probably south of Albany, there might even be a tornado or two on Tuesday. Up  here in Vermont, the (relatively low) threat from severe storms is strong, damaging winds.

And lots of rain.

Some areas of New England, including south and southeastern facing slopes in Vermont's Green Mountains, could get three or more inches of rain out of this.

Often, that much rain raises the possibility of at least minor flooding, but not this time. It's been so dry the rivers should be able to handle the precipitation just fine. We need the rain.

The exception to the "no flood" forecast is some urban areas. It was already getting windy early Monday morning in the Champlain Valley, and it will get even windier as the rain approaches Tuesday.

That'll knock a lot of leaves off the trees, and the heavy rains will take even more foliage down. So I imagine there could be some areas of urban flooding as storm drains get clogged with leaves during the expected downpours.

On the bright side, it's gotten so dry that there's a fire danger in Vermont and other parts of the Northeast. The rain will end that risk.  Not so in California. No way.

CALIFORNIA FIRE RISK:

It's looking pretty scary in southern California today and tomorrow with a strong Santa Ana windstorm coming.

Santa Anas are hot, dry winds that blow from the northeast, from the deserts and blast into southern  California, especially in the vast developments in and around Los Angeles. The wind blows down the slopes of the mountains toward the coast.

That downward motion compresses the air, making it even hotter and drier. In this case, record high temperatures above 100 degrees are expected in the Los Angeles basin today and Tuesday. Relative humidities will drop into the single digits. Winds will gust past 50 mph in some areas. And it hasn't really rained since last spring. It's bone dry.

You can see why people are nervous. The tiniest little spark could cause a terrible conflagration. 

It's hard to get National Weather Service meteorologists to speak in dire language, but when things get extreme enough, they do. Here's part of a statement from the NWS office in Los Angeles.

"The duration, strength and widespread nature of this Santa Ana wind event combined with the extreme heat and very dry fuels will bring the most dangerous fire weather conditions that Southwest California has seen in the past few years. If fire ignition occurs, there will be the potential for ery rapid spread of wildfire with long range spotting and extreme fire behavior that could lead to a thret to life and property."

Great. Just what California needs. Another fire disaster.  Maybe we'll get lucky and avoid such a disaster. The nation doesn't need another calamity.

CAL fire had deployed additional firefighters to southern California, some from as far away as Australia, to get ready for any fires to break out. They're trying to stay on top of the situation, but it sounds like no matter how talented the fire crews, this one could get away from them.

Stay tuned.