Continued Concerns About Flooding, Windy Northeast Storm Coming

One computer model depicts a very strong
storm right over northern Vermont Monday morning
Flooding and strong winds are definite risks
for the Northeast Sunday and Monday.

Updated forecasts for the expected nasty storm scheduled to strike the Northeast Sunday and Monday haven't changed too much from yesterday, which means we should still be bracing for flooding and wind.

The bullseye for where the heaviest rain will come down seems now to be over eastern New York and western New England, from Connecticut through Vermont all the way to at least Montreal.

This expected zone of heaviest rain will continue to shift around a bit until we get to the storm, but a lot of people in and near this zone can probably expect two to six inches of rain out of this storm.

It's interesting that the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday with data from before the rains started this week, showed expanding dryness and even drought through much of New England, including most of Vermont.

But the rains have already come big time this week. So much for the fire danger we were under a week ago.

Yesterday's rain storm was an overachiever, at least in western and northern New England. Flood warnings were up for a time in central Massachusetts, northern New Hampshire and pieces of western Maine.

In Vermont, the Champlain Valley was expected about a quarter inch of rain yesterday, but got more than an inch instead. Radar estimates had two to three inches of rain in spots southeast of Burlington and a little east of St. Albans.

All this means that the soil is holding more moisture than it did a few days ago, and won't be able to absorb quite as much rainfall from the upcoming storm had it remained dry. True, the soil is not super saturated and the rivers aren't super high, but there is now less capacity for heavy rains to drain off or soak in without doing harm.

I think you will see flood watches hoisted for much of the region over the next couple of days. This almost surely won't be as bad as the Tropical Storm Irene flooding of 2011. In fact, I can't say for sure whether there will actually be flooding or not, but it's something to definitely keep an eye on.

The forecast scenario for this thing is still the same. A wet, slow moving cold front will approach from the west and ripples of small storms will ride northward along the front, dumping heavy rain.

The last storm moving north will likely tap moisture and energy from that tropical disturbance over the western Caribbean and turn into a powerhouse storm that will probably track right over New England. (One computer model has the intense storm right over Burlington, Vermont shortly after dawn Monday morning.)

Strong winds will probably be a problem with this storm, especially along the coast and in the mountains. The winds will affect rainfall, too. In places where the wind goes up the sides of mountains, the rain will be heavier, increasing the risk of flooding in those locations.

In spots where the wind descends the slopes of the mountains, the rain will be somewhat lighter, which could minimize flooding potential in some areas. We'll have to get closer to the event to tease out the picky details.

On the bright side, no rain is forecast until the storm and cold front start to affect the Northeast Saturday night.

This update is of course broadbrush, since we're three days away from the storm and things could easily change. The expected rainfall with this could either go up or down depending on the strength of the storm when it gets here, or the expected zone of heaviest rain could move around some.

We also don't know how strong the winds will be, and where they will be strongest. As always, stay tuned.