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| Just after sunrise this morning, Hurricane Nate looked much more organized than last evening as it moves rapidly toward a Gulf Coast landfall tonight. |
Hurricane Nate continues to become better organized. It's strengthening with winds of 90 mph as of 11 a.m.
It is forecast to keep strengthening and is expected to be a Category 2 storm at landfall.
The biggest - and growing -threat appears to be a storm surge from eastern Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. Storm surges of 7 to 11 feet could hit in and near Mobile Bay.
This is unfortunately going to be quite destructive.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
What was Tropical Storm Nate strengthened overnight over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters into a hurricane, with top sustained winds of 85 mph this morning.
Hurricane Nate is booking right along, racing northward at 22 mph, which is quite fast for a hurricane and should make landfall along the Mississippi coast tonight.
So yep, just what we need. Another destructive hurricane.
While Nate won't exactly be a Category 5 monster when it comes ashore tonight, it is going to cause havoc with storm surges, wind damage and inland flooding.
Nate will probably keep strengthening until landfall, but it won't have time to get much beyond 90 to 95 mph sustained winds. But that's still awfully bad.
Not surprisingly there have been mandatory evacuations along low lying barrier islands and coastlines in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Since Nate is moving so fast, conditions will quickly get worse and worse along the Gulf Coast this afternoon. People there might not be prepared for how quickly the weather will get bad, since the worsening wind and rain usually comes on more gradually with a hurricane than it will this time.
I suppose if there's a silver lining to this, is that it will likely come ashore a little east of New Orleans. This will still be bad for NOLA. They will have problems with storm surges, heavy rain and flooding and wind.
But it Nate had come ashore over or a little west of New Orleans, it would have pushed much more water into the city than what is currently projected. The wind will come mostly from the north in New Orleans during the storm tonight, which will slightly minimize things by trying to push Gulf of Mexico water away from the city.
As Nate screams inland overnight and Sunday morning, tropical storm warnings and watches extend well inland into northern Alabama and Georgia.
Like most tropical systems, Nate will rapidly weaken as it moves inland. But it's moving so fast that it won't have time to completely fall apart until it gets way up into the Appalachians. There's going to be problems with gusty winds, fallen trees and power lines probably all the way up into western North Carolina.
Flash flooding could be a problem all the way to southern New England by late Monday and early Tuesday as the Nate remnants race northeastward.
Friday was a busy weather day for the nation to begin with. Besides Nate, we had an outbreak of springlike severe weather in the middle of the country.
There were a couple reports of tornadoes in Kansas, and numerous instances of hail and damaging winds in that general region. Some of the storms were heavy rainers, so there was local flooding as well. Meanwhile, snow fell in parts of the Rockies on Friday.
VERMONT IMPACTS:
Both the storm from the Midwest and Hurricane Nate will have some effects here in Vermont, but we continue to be blessed: Both systems overall will cause more good than harm.
The Midwest storm will roll through pretty quickly late tonight and the first half of Sunday, lingering into the afternoon in eastern sections. We'll likely see a few hours of showers and even a few thunderstorms during this time period on Sunday. We need the rain, so that's all good.
It will feel awfully warm and humid for October tonight and Sunday, and on into Monday as this system passes by.
Meanwhile, the remnants of Nate will race northeastward toward New England. Forecasts indicate the track will take it over southern New England.
The southern half to two thirds of New England will get a fairly quick burst of heavy rain from this on Monday. This heavy rain zone includes the southern half of Vermont, where one to two inches of rain could come down.
Again, it's been dry, so this won't cause any flooding concerns, but will help wet things down a bit, which we need. By the time you get up near the Canadian border, rainfall from Nate will be much less: At or under a half inch. Possibly well under a half inch depending upon how things go.
I don't think either storm will cause much damage to Vermont's famed fall foliage, which is rapidly heading toward a belated peak during this very tardy season. (It's been so warm, that's why the foliage is so late.)
True, rain and clouds and fog will interfere with viewing, and some leaves will come down amid the gusts and showers, but there will still be plenty of autumn beauty as skies clear and temperatures remain a little warmer than normal during the midweek.
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