Will Hurricanes Migrate North With Climate Change?

A woman photographs giant coastal waves in southern England
created by ex-hurricane Ophelia. Photo by Matt Cardy/
Getty Images

As expected, ex-hurricane Ophelia trashed Ireland with strong, damaging winds Monday, killing at least three people, unroofing buildings, tossing down countless trees and leaving more than 360,000 people with electricity.

Was Ophelia a rare one-off, just one of those storms that were still almost hurricanes by the time it reached Europe?  After all, this has happened before, with Debbie in 1961 being the most cited example.

However, there are indications that with global warming, hurricanes are drifting further and further north. These storms thrive on warm water. If warm water is further north, the logic goes, hurricanes would go further north, too.

This has implications for Europe, of course. If a storm retains hurricane status further north, then the storm's inevitable transition to non-tropical storm status would come further north. But that poleward shift means these storms would be stronger than they would be had they lost their tropical characteristics further south.

Is Europe due for a lot more Ophelias? The jury is out, but the signs are there. A 2014 University of Wisconsin study noted there has been a "pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime maximum intensity over the past 30 years."

If global warming brings tropical storms and hurricanes further north, that has implications for us New Englanders.

Of course, we are already sometimes hit by hurricanes and tropical storms - even major ones. The Great Hurricane of 1938 was Category 3 when it reached Long Island and New England, killing more than 600 people.

Even weaker tropical storms can wreak havoc. Just ask any Vermonter who had to deal with the flooding from Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

Aftermath of the Great New England hurricane of 1938
in Connecticut. Will global warming drive more such
storms northward? More research is needed.

However, tropical storms and hurricanes, even ones that reach New England and southeastern Canada, usually weaken as they approach because the waters off the Northeast coast are cool. Remember, hurricanes need very warm water.

If ocean waters off the coasts of New England and Canada warm, perhaps this weakening trend in most northward moving tropical storms and hurricanes could lessen, creating more powerful storms for us.

Some studies suggest New England could be more prone to tropical storms and hurricanes in a warmer future, but more research is definitely needed to confirm this.

That future is not cast in stone. More research is needed. But it is something to consider.