Humberto Forms, Looks Like It Will Miss United States, But....

Tropical Storm Humberto looking large but disorganized in the
Bahamas Saturday morning. It is expected to organize and
grow into a hurricane once its north of the islands.

As expected Tropical Storm Humberto has formed in the Bahamas.

Even though it's not very strong, it's near the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas, which was basically wiped off the map by Hurricane Dorian a couple weeks ago.  Which means Humberto is going to cause more misery in the northern Bahamas as it slowly strengthens and moves north.

At least it's moving, unlike Dorian. Humberto is expected by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane, but only when it's safely north of the Bahamas.

More good news: It looks like Humberto is going to head east and northeast after that, away from the United States coastline.  

I did mention this week that the overall weather pattern over the western Atlantic Ocean favors tropical storms and hurricanes heading toward the United States. That's due to strong high pressure in this region.

But, timing is everything. While Humberto wants to move north, a weak, temporary dip in the jet stream east of New England will cause an area of weakness in that high pressure. The dip in the jet stream and that weakness looks like it wants to take Humberto out to sea.

This out-to-sea scenario comes with a caveat: It's possible that dip in the jet stream could keep moving on, prompting Humberto to reverse course and head back to the United States. At this point it seems unlikely, but some computer models do show this scenario. It's worth it to watch and see.

Additionally, the weather pattern that is favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes could easily reassert itself. There are several disturbances way out there in the Atlantic Ocean that the National Hurricane Center is watching. Some of them could develop into tropical storms and head toward the United States.

That is just speculation at the moment, but since we're still in the peak of hurricane season, all these systems will need to be watched.

Meanwhile, some residents of Vermont's Champlain Valley could be forgiven if they thought they experienced their own tropical storm this morning.

Of course, there is no tropical storm anywhere near Vermont. But strong high pressure to the east of us, and  cold front coming from the west - which is part of that dip in the jet stream that should take Humberto away from the United States - is funneling strong winds up the Champlain Valley.

I noticed a gust 51 mph at Burton Island and  49 mph at Colchester Reef this morning. On my exposed hillside in St. Albans, I would stay some gusts are going a little over 40 mph and some small branches are down on my property.

This windy state of affairs should continue most of today. Expect a few downed branches and maybe a couple of power failures here and there. As of 8 a.m. today, there were a smattering of outages, mostly in Chittenden County. Statewide, only about 50 homes and businesses were without power, so that's not extreme, thank goodness.

Winds should calm down nicely by this evening.