Stormy Days Like Today, Yesterday Show Why You Shouldn't Go Out On Lake

Possible microburst over Lake Champlain west of Burlington Tuesday.
(Click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see.). Even if
this wasn't a microburst and even though the storm wasn't severe
when it came ashore in Vermont, this illustrates why you
should not be out on the lake when thunderstorms develop. 

Today in Vermont, we once again have several weather threats,   including strong to severe thunderstorms with locally damaging winds, a lot of lightning, and maybe even localized flooding.

Which is a great reason to stay off of places like Lake Champlain today.

That idea was well illustrated to me yesterday when thunderstorms that were (mostly) not as strong as today's expected weather developed.  

Tuesday's storms developed in the Adirodacks and drifted slowly across Lake Champlain into Vermont. As the photo in this post shows, one storm looked like it got ferocious when it was part way across the lake. There was a possible, dangerous microburst out there.

If the microburst occurred, it didn't last long and faded away before the storm came ashore in and around Burlington. Winds gusted to just 32 mph during the storm at the Burlington International Airport, where the National Weather Service is located. I'd estimate gusts along Burlington's lakeshore were about 40 mph. Windy, but manageable.

So the storm wasn't severe on land, and there were no reports of storm damage anywhere in northern New York and Vermont. I only saw a few twigs and small branches down. No biggie.

But the lake was wild, going from calm to having large waves in an incredibly short period of time. I could see big crashing waves slamming into the Burlington breakwater. Lightning strikes hitting the lake couldn't have helped.

It had been a beautiful, sunny day. Then it wasn't. Which means people on boats should always keep their eyes open for developing storms, know what they look like and head to the docks when they see them forming.

The National Weather Servicie in South Burlington did have a special weather statement on yesterday's storm, which said in part: "If you are on or near Lake Champlain, move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm."  Note the exclamation point in that statement.

Last week, two kayakers drowned in Malletts Bay around Colchester during a strong thunderstorm.  I don't know if the storm was directly related, but before the storm it was sunny and hot and calm, and then, suddenly, it wasn't. Were these victims caught unaware as the storm bore down on them?

STORM THREATS TODAY

Areas in yellow have a slight risk of severe storms today.
Darker green is marginal risk. 

Today is going to be a more hazardous day than yesterday, as I've already mentioned. As the NWS in South Burlington, Vermont explains it, the heating of the sun getting through the mostly cloudy skies this morning will be enough to get the air destabilized.  

Wind shear - which is wind shifting and/or changing speeds with height - will be increasing during the peak heating hours. That'll help to develop thunderstorms and organize them.

This organization, in turn could create bands of strong to severe storms. These potentially severe storms are most likely south of Route 2, the NWS says, but could happen anywhere in Vermont.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the southern two thirds of Vermont in a slight risk zone of severe storms, meaning they expect scattered severe storms, with one or two perhaps becoming intense. Far northern areas are in a marginal risk zone.

The main risk from these storms would be damaging wind gusts, some hail, cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours. Due to the wind shear above, there is a very, VERY tiny, but still not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado. But don't count on that.

The timing of the worst storms looks like it will be somewhere between mid-afternoon and early evening.

Note that as always only some areas will see damaging thunderstorms. It'll be hit and miss. A classic example was last week, when a severe storm caused widespread damage in places like Swanton, Highgate and Sheldon, while places just a couple miles south suffered absolutely no harm.

Areas north of Route 2 are slightly less at risk of severe storms, but have another problem.  The center of a weak area of low pressure will pass over or near northern New York and far northern Vermont.

Thicker cloud cover there will help tamp down on severe thunderstorms a bit, but this little low pressure area, working with humid air will tend to focus downpours in this region. Although it has been fairly dry in recent weeks, intense downpours can still cause local flooding, such as small streams going nuts, urban street flooding, washouts on steep hills, damaged culverts, that sort of thing.

The National Weather Service's Excessive Rainfall Outlook puts northern zones of Vermont and New York in a slight risk zone for flash flooding.

It'll be somewhat calmer tomorrow as a cold front starts to come through, but there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms around. It's still looking cool for the weekend.

Northern Vermont Still In The Bulleye For Snow

Here's the latest snowfall projections through
Monday from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington, Vermont. Click
on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.  

It still looks like it's going to snow quite a bit over a good chunk of Vermont and parts of northern New Hampshire tonight and Monday.

Given the highly iffy state of affairs in the northern New England atmosphere as a storm approaches, forecasts for snowfall are remarkably the same as they were last evening.

Northern Vermont looks to be in the sweet spot for snow with this one.

Go a little to the west, and precipitation won't be all that heavy. Go a little east into New Hampshire and you get into the mixed precipitation.

If forecasts hold, it looks like the heaviest snow in Vermont will fall north of a V-shaped line from St. Albans, down to a little below Montpelier then back up to the St. Johnsbury area.

That's the zone covered under a winter storm warning, meaning a snowstorm is pretty much considered imminent. That's an upgrade from the winter storm watch of last evening. A watch means "maybe, but we're not really all that sure yet."

The spine of the Green Mountains south of Barre all the way down to the Mount Snow Ski Area in southern Vermont looks like they'll get a good five to ten inches of snow as well.

Most other areas of Vermont are under a winter weather advisory for wet, heavy snow, but accumulations will only be in the 2 to 6 inch category. This somewhat lighter zone includes Burlington, Middlebury, Rutland, and White River Junction, Vermont and Plattsburgh, N.Y.

The areas around Bennington and Brattleboro in far southern Vermont will only get a dusting to an inch or two of slush. But watch out east of the Green Mountains in the lower Connecticut River valley. Freezing rain will fall or a time today.

Even though watches have been upgrades to winter storm warnings and advisories, I still caution there is a high potential for forecasts to be wrong.

It'll get warm enough this afternoon for precipitation to start as rain in most of Vermont. The question is, at what point tonight will it get cold enough for the precipitation to change to snow? If the changeover comes later than expected, obviously less snow than forecast would accumulate.

Far northern New Hampshire is under a winter weather advisory for three to five inches of snow, mixed with sleet, freezing rain and rain. Kinda yucky there.

Deeper valleys haven't seen the south winds that have been scouring out warm air.  That means some of the deeper valleys, especially across the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, much of New Hampshire and the northwestern half of Maine, could see freezing rain this afternoon when precipitation arrives.

As of 7 a.m this morning, with calm winds, it was minus 2 in Berlin, N.H., so it would take a lot for warm air to scour down to that valley. Meanwhile, Burlington, Vermont, where a south wind has been blowing all night, gusting to 40 mph at times, it was 25 degrees as of 7 a.m.

The precipitation will change to plain rain in much of New Hampshire and most of Maine tonight, but the rain might still freeze on contact with the ground even if the air temperature is above freezing. Road and other surfaces are cold from the stretch of subzero weather we've had, so things could stay icy overnight.

I'd also note that any rain that falls in Vermont before a changeover to snow could also freeze on roads and sidewalks, even if temperatures are above freezing.

By the way, some of those overnight Champlain Valley winds have been quite strong, gusting over 40 mph in many places, including around my house in St. Albans, Vermont. Quite a few small branches blew off the trees around my house overnight. Those winds should lighten up later today.

Freezing rain is falling across much of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, Westchester County, N.Y and Connecticut this morning, and there have been lots of accidents reported. It'll go over to plain rain there later, but meanwhile, if you're in that area, stay off the roads until Sunday afternoon.

All hell is breaking loose down there this morning. Parts of the New Jersey Turnpike, and most of the bridges over the Delaware River were closed as of 8 a.m. this morning due to ice and many car crashes.

The freezing rain is moving into Massachusetts this morning. So if you're approaching Boston from the west for the New England Patriots game later today, delay your trip a bit or be very, very careful.

Frankly, you'd be better off watching the AFC Championship game between the Patriots vs. Indiana Colts this evening on television, rather than at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. A drenching rain, with temperatures only in the low 40s is expected at game time. There might even be some thunder and lightning with this. Yikes!

The snow and/or rain should taper off across New England on Monday as the storm rolls pretty quickly up toward the Canadian Maritimes.

Then, for the rest of the week, we revert back to the quiet and cold weather pattern that we've seen for most of January.

No, New Orleans (Very Likely) WON'T Blow Away In A Hurricane Next Week

That disorganized blob of clouds northeast
of South America might, or might not turn into
a hurricane. And if it does, nobody yet knows
where it would go.  

A few of the more sensationalistic weather watchers out there are telling us that a huge, major hurricane will trash New Orleans at least as badly as Katrina did back in 2005.

If there are any readers of this in New Orleans or anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico, take a deep breath and relax.

Disaster is definitely NOT imminent.

There IS a chance of tropical trouble in the Gulf next week, but it sure as hell isn't time to head for the hills.

Already, the panic mongers are out.  Shore News Today in that region of the world already has an alarming headline: "First 2014 Land-Falling Hurricane Could Target New Orleans."

First of all, even if there WERE a hurricane making landfall next week, it would be the second one of the season. Arthur hit North Carolina back in early July.

And we really have no way of knowing where the hurricane will go, if it forms at all. True, one computer model brings a strong hurricane near New Orleans, and several bring something, I'm not sure what, into the Gulf of Mexico next week.

But other computer models say no tropical storm or hurricane will form. Or it will head to Mexico. Or somewhere on the U.S. East Coast. Or somewhere out to sea without touching land.

You see, computer models are notoriously bad at predicting where a potential hurricane will go, and how strong it might be, when the storm hasn't even formed yet.  The models are also lousy at predicting what will happen a week from now.

(They're much better at forecasting stuff that will happen one, two or three days from now. And yes, I know some of the models got Hurricane Sandy in 2012 right a week ahead of time, but that was just a lucky break)

In other words, nobody knows what the hell is going to go on yet. So chill.

My advice: If you're that interested in whether there will be a bad storm in the Gulf of Mexico, keep checking with the National Hurricane Center, because they are tracking an area of disturbed weather that will head into the Caribbean in the next couple of days.

That's the system that the fearmongers say will blow New Orleans away and drown it.

It's also the system that might not develop into anything at all. Or drift harmlessly out to sea. As of Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance a 50/50 shot of developing into a tropical storm over the next five days. 

So you can see how the panic bloggers are wrong to tell us that New Orleans is definitely going to drown again.  Or they are at the very least wayyyyyy too confident in their forecasts.

Anyone on the East Coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine should have their usual hurricane season stuff ready to go in case something happens between now and November, which is the aforementioned hurricane season.

But unless they issue a weather alert, tropical storm watch or hurricane watch where you live, just check into the Hurricane Center, or your favorite reputable weather blogger or television forecaster. (Very good sources (other than me!)  include Weather Channel, WeatherNation, Capital Weather Gang and Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground) We'll fill you in on what's going on.

And if you hear about the Coming Hurricane Apocalyse from some unknown source, just double check elsewhere. You really CAN'T believe everything you read on the Internet.