Still Warmer Than Normal, But Still A Return To Semi-Winter

This school bus got stuck in worsening Arkansas floodwaters
but everyone was rescued.

The very active, odd weather pattern continues across the nation and the Northern Hemisphere, really. We here in Vermont will continue to be affected by it.

It's just that - thankfully - I don't see any super bizarro weather on the horizon. At least in the near future.

We'll still have our challenges. Starting today.

For days now, there has been a conveyor belt of very wet air feeding in from the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the country and occasionally on up into the Northeast.

That persistant precipitation has led to widespread and worsening flooding in parts of the South, and on up through the Midwest and as far north as Pennsylvania and Ontario.  The wet conveyor belt should last for a couple more days at least.

Some of that moisture gets thrown here into Vermont via disturbances and storm systems riding along the jet stream pattern that is causing that flooding. By the time things get here, there's less moisture, and the wet pattern isn't so consistent. Which means flooding has been minor.

Freezing rain has also been a problem with this weather pattern in parts of the nation's middle, and today, as a disturbance glides up toward us, it will be a problem in Vermont, too.

Don't worry. The trees aren't going go cave in under the weight of ice and the power won't go out for days on end. There's nothing heavy coming. It will be enough, though, to make travel tricky later today and tonight.

The forecast itself is a bit tricky. Some areas will rise above freezing and stay there through most of the precipitation that comes in today and tonight. That will be most true west of the Green Mountains.

East of the Green Mountains, especially in the valleys, there's a greater chance of freezing rain.

Thing zip on out of here tonight, and Saturday will actually be a very nice day across Vermont, with partly sunny skies and warm temperatures in the 38 to 45 degree range.

It sure won't be nice elsewhere in the nation, though. Remember that conveyor belt? Flooding is already ongoing and getting pretty bad in Arkansas and surrounding states. One last disturbance, the strongest yet, will enhance the rains in Arkansas and into Illinois and through parts of the already soaked Ohio River Valley. 

On top of that, chances are rising for the first real severe outbreak of the season on Saturday.  This severe weather at this point looks like it will be centered - you guessed it, in and around Arkansas. They're having a really tough time there.

There have been scattered severe thunderstorms and tornadoes here and there across the nation this winter, but nothing too widespread. (For the record, as of this morning, the U.S. has seen 35 tornadoes so far in 2018, somewhat fewer than we'd normally expect by now.)

Once you get into late February and toward March, the chances of severe weather, especially in the South, begin to ramp up as we begin a transition toward spring. By Saturday evening, you'll probably be hearing about high winds, severe thunderstorms and flash flooding, and probably some tornadoes.

The storm causing that will kind of split in two, one heading toward the Great Lakes, the other toward the Northeast coast. That means rain and mixed precipitation for us here in Vermont on Sunday. Winds could get gusty in some areas, too.

Temperatures here will stay warmer than normal into next week, but not extremely warm like the other day. Generally speaking, highs will be in the 35 to 45 degree range through the next week with lows in the 20s. Really kind of March-ish