Winter Storm Watch In Vermont, Surrounding Areas Wednesday

Here's an early take on expected snowfall Wednesday in
  Vermont. The National Weather Service in South
Burlington is telling us to expect generally 6-11 inches of
snow midweek. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has issued a winter storm watch for the entire state on Wednesday.   

This is a move I expected, as forecasts have been consistent for a mid-sized snowstorm then.

At this point, it's looking like the most snow will fall in southern and central Vermont, with slightly lesser amounts as you head north.  Current forecasts bring eight to 11 inches of new snow to areas of Vermont south of Route 2, and six or seven inches north of that line.

It's tough to pick out who will get the absolute most snow out of this, but a likely suspect is the high elevations of eastern Rutland and Windsor counties, towns, like Ludlow, Cavendish, Mount Holly and Shrewsbury.

Those are the very same towns that got the most snow from Sunday's storm, so winter sports enthusiasts there are loving life. People who have to shovel their driveways in those communities, not so much.

Since the storm causing this likely snow is moving fast, this will be a quick hit. The winter storm warning is in effect from 8 a.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday, a relatively short time to be under such an alert.

The bulk of the snow looks like it will come down across Vermont between roughly noon and 9 p.m. Wednesday. Snowfall rates during that time could be around one inch per hour, which is pretty heavy.

On the bright side, the snow will be somewhat powdery, so I wouldn't worry too much about power failures. The evening commute on Wednesday definitely looks tricky, though.  Bottom line: This storm won't be a blockbuster. It will be an average sized snowfall for Vermont, but you still want to take it seriously.

By the way, the winter storm watch covers a pretty wide area. It includes northern Pennsylvania, all but far western and northwestern New York, all of New Hampshire, all but far northern Maine and parts of Massachusetts and Connecticut.

Separate, smaller storms will probably bring lighter accumulations - generally around an inch, two at most, tomorrow morning and again Friday and Friday night.

A larger storm seems to be shaping up for around Sunday. Early indications are that one will feature a bunch of mixed precipitation, but don't hang your hat on that just yet. It's much too soon to predict with any precision what will happen five or six days from now.

Let's just get through Wednesday's snowfall first.

One more point: Here's an example of how long range forecasts don't always work out as planned, even when they get the general gist of things right. I mentioned this before, but a week or more ago, many of the long range forecasts indicated it might be brutally cold around these parts starting now and continuing through this week.

The basis of that forecast was the expected position of the polar vortex over central Canada. Indeed, that polar vortex has set up pretty much right where those long range forecasts said it would. But, the core of the disgustingly frigid air is staying up there in Canada.

Here in Vermont, it will only be seasonably cold. High temperatures each day through next weekend will be for the most part in the 15 to 30 degree range, with lows in the 0 to 15 above range. Pretty normal for the first half of February.